We’re going to be trying something different at Action Network this season.
Minor League baseball is an inefficient market. I’ve been betting on Triple-A ball since 2021, and the market has become widely available enough that I was able to provide picks to my subscribers last season — I went a documented 112-81-8 (58%) for a 51.7-unit profit.
You can still get most of my Triple-A picks over at WagerTalk, but I’m going to start publishing an Minor League baseball column here at Action Network on Tuesdays and Fridays, previewing the week and weekend ahead while providing some actionable insights.
Minor League Baseball Best Bets
Norfolk Tides @ Durham Bulls
Friday, 6:45 PM ET
Durham has been one of Triple-A’s best teams in the second half (30-23, 3.5 games back of first place), and the Bulls just got big-time lineup reinforcements from Double-A, with guys returning from injury.
Durham added Jack Suwinski via trade (having a monster Triple-A season) earlier this month. In the last week, the Bulls called up two of their top prospects (Caden Bodine and Xavier Isaac). Jacob Melton also returned from injury, and Victor Mesa has been in Durham on a rehab assignment.
For a Bulls team that has been offensively challenged at times, this is the best lineup they’ve had all season.
Meanwhile, Norfolk has been one of Triple-A’s worst teams in the second half, mainly because the Tides have one of Triple-A’s worst lineups.
The Tides have pitching, but Trace Bright likely starts on Friday (7.46 ERA and .301 BAA since being called up). Plus, they won the first three games of this series by using Trey Gibson, Juaron Watts-Brown, and Cade Povich.
Tonight is a great spot to target Durham — hopefully, we get a discount after the Bulls lost the first three of this series.
Pick: Durham Bulls ML
Sacramento River Cats @ Reno Aces
Friday, 9:35 PM ET
The betting patterns in this series have been wild. Reno took huge money (not from me) on Tuesday and Wednesday, presumably because the Aces had some rehabbers, and they lost both games by a wide margin.
Last night, in what was a far worse matchup for Reno and with none of the rehabbers playing, they won 5-0.
While the Reno money made sense, I’m looking for spots to fade Sacramento, who recently lost several of its best players to call-ups to the Giants roster.
Reno can be hit-or-miss, but there’s a chance guys like Tommy Troy, Lourdes Gurriel, and Adrian Del Castillo will get some additional games in Reno. Ketel Marte also might play in Reno soon, although I’m unsure if it’ll be this weekend.
Reno has a decent lineup, so adding a few of those guys would make this lineup pretty dangerous.
Sacramento has a decent pitching staff, but all of the notable guys have already gone this week.
Reno’s staff isn’t very good, but the Aces will be priced as the underdog, so the trick here will be finding a Reno pitcher we trust over the next three games.
Ultimately, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Aces took two of three this weekend.
Pick: Reno Aces ML | Reno Aces +1.5
Trigger's Top Triple-A Plays for Tuesday
- Durham Bulls ML
- Reno Aces ML
- Reno Aces +1.5
To keep up with any Minor League baseball bets I make, be sure to follow me in the Action Network App.
How To Bet on Triple-A
The first thing you need to understand about exploiting the Triple-A market is that it’s still a developmental league.
The players range from MLB-ready prospects to 30-plus-year-old journeymen trying to make it back to the show. You also have a handful of guys who likely top out at Triple-A but are good for organizational depth.
It’s also worth mentioning that 14 players on the Triple-A roster are also on the MLB 40-man roster, and these guys are constantly moving up and down from the big leagues.
All this makes each roster dynamic and volatile.
Bookmakers track the big names (e.g., Konnor Griffin) but can’t keep up with all the roster moves on a day-to-day basis. They also struggle to track the “developmental” aspect of everyone needing to play.
Lineups will look different day to day, and that’s primarily where I find my edge. This edge will become more pronounced as the season progresses, as I have a much greater bias toward in-season data and need a larger sample size to detect actionable wagers.
It’s worth noting that the Triple-A series consists of weekly six-game series that run Tuesday through Sunday. Additionally, every game is televised on MiLB.TV, which you can get as part of your MLB.TV subscription or directly at milb.com.
