We’re going to be trying something different at Action Network this season.
Minor League baseball is an inefficient market. I’ve been betting on Triple-A ball since 2021, and the market has become widely available enough that I was able to provide picks to my subscribers last season — I went a documented 112-81-8 (58%) for a 51.7-unit profit.
You can still get most of my Triple-A picks over at WagerTalk, but I’m going to start publishing an Minor League baseball column here at Action Network on Tuesdays and Fridays, previewing the week and weekend ahead while providing some actionable insights.
So far this season, I'm 47-32 betting on Triple-A ball, good for +30.45 units of profit.
Scranton Rail Riders @ Buffalo Bisons
Tuesday, 6:35 PM ET
I’m going to keep an eye on Scranton's availability, as a full-strength Rail Riders team should have success in Buffalo.
The Scranton roster is loaded right now. The Rail Riders have one of the strongest rotations and lineups at the Triple-A level.
The problem is we have status in question for a number of Rail Riders position players, so checking lineups will be key.
The one I fully expect to see back in action is Spencer Jones, who was sent back down on July 4th but didn’t play over the weekend. My guess is the Yankees decided to give Jones an extra day off to arrange his travel and join the team, and he will be active for the series opener here.
George Lombard has a hand injury; there was no timetable for his return, but it sounded like his hand got stepped on. Lombard has already missed a couple of weeks, so he could be nearing a return, but the Yankees could be cautious with the league-wide week off for the All-Star Break.
Garrett Martin is in the same boat, so I will keep an eye on the lineups to see if Lombard or Martin returns.
Getting any of those guys back would be a massive boost because this is still a solid lineup without them.
Scranton has guys like Yanquiel Fernandez, Marco Luciano, and Tyler Hardman who create a formidable lineup, which will be backed by Carlos Lagrange, Brendan Beck, and an elite pitching staff.
On the other side, you have a Buffalo team with an average lineup and very little pitching, yet it looks like this one will be priced competitively.
If Scranton gets any combination of Spencer Jones, George Lombard, or Garrett Martin back, they will almost definitely have a pitching edge and, thus, would be a play at -130 or better.
Pick: Scranton Rail Riders ML (-120, bet365 | Play to -130)
Syracuse Mets @ Norfolk Tides
Tuesday, 6:35 PM ET
This is another matchup that’s going to be heavily contingent on personnel.
Last week, we saw Luis Robert and Jorge Polanco rehabbing in Syracuse while MJ Melendez provided a nice boost since getting sent back to Triple-A.
Syracuse is mostly journeyman veterans right now, so they're rotating the lineup, and it’s not a great team overall. And aside from a couple of decent starters in Jonah Tong and Jack Wenninger, Syracuse doesn’t have much pitching.
Norfolk isn’t a great offensive team, but the Tides hit the Syracuse pitching at Syracuse last month, and I think Norfolk will have an easier time than usual generating some offense this week.
Norfolk is considered one of the worst teams in Triple-A, so the Tides will be priced as a home underdog.
But Norfolk has struggled because the Tides can’t hit. But they do have three solid starters and some decent relief options at the moment. Most of the games this week will be started by Cade Povich, Yaqui Rivera, or Nestor German, which gives Norfolk a real pitching edge.
I will be looking for spots where Norfolk has its better bullpen arms available and where Syracuse has a watered-down lineup (no rehabbers, or maybe a Nick Morabito off day).
Either way, we should find a couple of great-value spots on Norfolk as a home underdog, since I’ll likely make the Tides slight favorites in most of their games against Syracuse this week.
Pick: Norfolk Tides ML (+105, bet365 | Play to +100)
Nashville Sounds @ Charlotte Knights
Tuesday, 7:04 PM ET
Somehow, Charlotte always seems to have the same caliber of team regardless of who goes up and who goes down. The Knights have consistently been a solid team despite a plethora of roster moves, entering this series with a 46-41 record.
This week, Charlotte will battle a Nashville team that is 50-37 on the season, playing like one of the better teams in the International League.
However, this Nashville team will be seriously watered down.
I’ve noted that Nashville had been heavily dependent on the trio of Luis Lara, Cooper Pratt, and Jett Williams a couple of weeks ago when Pratt was called up. Nashville has now lost its best and highest-rated player, with Lara set to make his Milwaukee debut sometime this week.
Nashville still has a solid rotation and decent bullpen, but it’s not as deep or strong as last season. Unless it’s Tyson Hardin on the mound, I’m not that worried about fading the Sounds’ pitching.
Jett Williams and Eddys Leonard are still solid, but this Sounds lineup has very little offense outside of these two.
Nashville has won low-scoring games, but Charlotte has been productive offensively no matter their lineup, and Truist Field is one of the more offense-friendly parks in the league.
I think there’s a good chance we could see Nashville as a road favorite, depending on who their starting pitcher is, which is crazy to me, considering how consistent Charlotte has been and how poor the Sounds' lineup will be this week.
Charlotte has good enough pitching to be trustworthy in most matchups.
As long as the starters are comparable, I’ll be looking for spots to back the home team.
Pick: Charlotte Knights ML (-120, bet365 | Play to -120)
Trigger's Top Triple-A Plays for Tuesday
- Scranton Rail Riders ML (@ Buffalo, 6:35 PM ET)
- Norfolk Tides ML (vs Syracuse, 6:35 PM ET)
- Charlotte Knights ML (vs Nashville, 7:04 PM ET)
To keep up with any Minor League baseball bets I make, be sure to follow me in the Action Network App.
How To Bet on Triple-A Baseball
The first thing you need to understand about exploiting the Triple-A market is that it’s still a developmental league.
The players range from MLB-ready prospects to 30-plus-year-old journeymen trying to make it back to the show. You also have a handful of guys who likely top out at Triple-A but are good for organizational depth.
It’s also worth mentioning that 14 players on the Triple-A roster are also on the MLB 40-man roster, and these guys are constantly moving up and down from the big leagues.
All this makes each roster dynamic and volatile.
Bookmakers track the big names (e.g., Konnor Griffin) but can’t keep up with all the roster moves on a day-to-day basis. They also struggle to track the “developmental” aspect of everyone needing to play.
Lineups will look different day to day, and that’s primarily where I find my edge. This edge will become more pronounced as the season progresses, as I have a much greater bias toward in-season data and need a larger sample size to detect actionable wagers.
It’s worth noting that the Triple-A series consists of weekly six-game series that run Tuesday through Sunday. Additionally, every game is televised on MiLB.TV, which you can get as part of your MLB.TV subscription or directly at milb.com.
