Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Nick Martin has that job for Tuesday, July 7.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Red Sox ML (-130 or Better)
- Guardians vs Twins Under 8.5 (-114 or Better)
Red Sox vs White Sox Picks
Thanks to their current 8-2 surge, the Red Sox now sit just four games back of the final AL Wild Card spot and have a pair of favorable series against the White Sox and Mets before the All-Star break. They're one of just six American League teams with a positive run differential, and it may not be that foolish to believe their season hasn't been rendered meaningless just yet.
With Payton Tolle set to face off against struggling rookie Noah Schultz in the series opener, the Red Sox appear to have a good opportunity to build on their recent surge.
Schultz, a 2022 first-round selection, was fairly dominant across 22 innings in Triple-A this season and is considered to have some meaningful upside at the MLB level.
Still, it feels as though Schultz is getting a fair bit of credit relative to Tolle, given Tuesday's prices, considering that to this point he's pitched to an xERA of 5.47 and a 5.22 xFIP across 43 innings. He also holds a Pitching+ of 91, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 9.5%, and has allowed a barrel rate of 11.3%.
Over his last 56 2/3 innings, Tolle has posted a 3.81 ERA and a 3.58 xERA. He holds a Pitching+ rating of 113 in that span, and allowed a hard-hit rate of 33.1%.
The White Sox have been hard on lefties this season (seventh in wRC+), but, since May 1st, the Red Sox have hit to a superior wRC+ of 118 versus southpaws.
The Red Sox bullpen has been a strength this season, posting an 3.38 ERA, and though it's been a sore spot over the last 30 days, it still ranks third in the Pitching+ rating in that span.
We seem to be getting a good price to ride with the red-hot Red Sox as they attempt to continue surging back into relevancy in the mediocre AL.
Picks: Red Sox ML (-130 or Better)
Guardians vs Twins Picks
Joey Cantillo and Taj Bradley enter Tuesday with nearly identical surface-level statistics: both starters have an ERA of 3.86 and a record of 7-3, having pitched roughly 90 innings.
While neither starter has an entirely convincing underlying profile, 8.5 runs still appear high, given the splits for this important AL Central showdown.
The Twins offer the hottest lineup in baseball over the past 30 days (130 wRC+), but have been drastically less effective versus left-handed pitching. Since June 1st, Minnesota has a wRC+ of 72 against lefties and a full-season wRC+ of 90 against lefties.
Since June 1st, Cleveland's lineup has struggled to a wRC+ of 90 and has struck out 25.5% of the time while ranking 28th in hard-hit rate. They do rank 15th in wRC+ against righties over the same span, but still offer a respectable matchup for Bradley to build on a string of three straight solid outings.
The Guardians lineup will remain without Jose Ramirez, while Byron Buxton is once again day-to-day with an injury for the Twins, and highly productive catcher Ryan Jeffers may also remain out of the lineup.
Bradley enters this matchup sporting a 3.97 xERA and a Stuff+ rating of 99. A lack of command has remained an issue at times, and he's more than capable of blowing up at any point, but he's been solid enough to trust him versus the Guardians right now, considering the total of 8.5.
Picks: Under 8.5 (-114 or Better)
Martin's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, July 7
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Red Sox ML (-130 or Better)
- Guardians vs Twins Under 8.5 (-114 or Better)
