Twins vs Guardians Odds & Prediction: Bet for AL Central Opener

Friday, May 17

7:10 p.m. ET

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Minnesota Twins Odds
Moneyline	Over/Under	Run Line
+110	8 -115o/ -105u	+1.5 -192

Cleveland Guardians Odds
Moneyline	Over/Under	Run Line
-130	8 -115o/ -105u	-1.5 +160

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Twins roll in to Progressive Field for an important three game set versus the division-leading Guardians.

Simeon Woods Richardson will make his fifth start of the season in this game for the Twins. The 23-year-old righty owns a stellar 3.24 ERA, but has benefitted from a softer than average slate of opposing lineups. The Guardians will hand the ball to Triston McKenzie, who has put up a 3.54 ERA across 40 and 2/3 innings.

Twins vs Guardians odds have the Guardians as -130 moneyline favorites; the over/under is set at 8 (-115o /-105u). Find my Twins vs Guardians prediction on the over/under below.

Minnesota Twins

Woods Richardson has benefitted from a far softer than average schedule of opponents, as his five starts have come against teams averaging a rank of 24.2 in wRC+ versus right handed pitching. He has pitched to solid expected results nonetheless, with an xERA of 4.02 and an xFIP of 3.96.

Woods Richardson has a Stuff+ rating of 86, but owns an excellent Location+ mark of 108.

The Twins are beginning to miss Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis on the offensive side of things, as their recent results have not been great. Over the last 14 days, Minnesota has posted a wRC+ of only 85. It has the 23rd-ranked OPS of just .649 in that span and a BB/K of just 0.26.

Cleveland Guardians

While the Twins lineup isn't in overly strong form, the Guardians haven't been much better recently either. They hold a wRC+ of only 88, and own an OPS of .647 over the last 14 days.

Over the entirety of the season, Cleveland has the second worst expected slug-rate in the league at just .369. Its xwOBA ranks fourth worst at .301.

Triston McKenzie has pitched to an ERA of 1.93 in the month of May, with a stellar WHIP of 1.02. While his full season xERA of 4.30 suggests negative regression is on the horizon, his expected rates from his last four outings have improved considerably. McKenzie has a Stuff+ rating 101 and a Location+ rating of 92 thus far.

Over the last 30 days of work, the Guardians bullpen has pitched to an exceptional 2.59 ERA across 97 and 1/3 innings. Their 3.08 xFIP is the best mark in baseball over that span.

Twins vs. Guardians

Betting Pick & Prediction

Now that the Guardians batting average with RISP has trended more in line with what their expected rates suggest, their offense has began to look more average. Woods Richardson has not been overly impressive, but he should still be able to manage a respectable start in this matchup.

The Twins offense has also been in well worse than league average form, and that provides a good opportunity for McKenzie to follow up on his dominant stretch of results.

Both teams feature far better than average bullpens as well, which enter this critical matchup in reasonable shape.

The betting total of 8.5 looks a touch high in this specific matchup, and I see value betting the under at anything better than -120.

Pick: Under 8.5 -115 (Bet365, Play to -120)

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