The Atlanta Braves host the Washington Nationals on Thursday, May 15, 2025. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 12:15 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
After an ugly blown lead by Atlanta on Wednesday, the Braves and Nationals have 1 final game to decide the series winner. The Braves have won 6 of their last 10 games, while the Nationals ended a weeklong losing slide.
Atlanta is a -220 moneyline favorite, while Washington enters as a +185 underdog. The over/under, meanwhile, sits at 9.
Find my Nationals vs Braves prediction and MLB betting preview for Thursday below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Picks
- Nationals vs Braves Pick: Nationals ML (+185 · Play to +140)
My Braves vs. Nationals best bet is the Washington moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Nationals vs Braves Odds, Spread, Lines
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 9 -105o / -115u | +175 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 9 -105o / -115u | -210 |
Nationals vs Braves Projected Pitchers
| Trevor Williams (WSH) | Stat | AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-4 | W-L | 2-2 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 5.88/3.89 | ERA /xERA | 2.76/5.12 |
| 3.97/4.03 | FIP / xFIP | 3.59/3.80 |
| 1.57 | WHIP | 1.35 |
| 11.8% | K-BB% | 13.8% |
| 38.8% | GB% | 35.2% |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 102 | Location+ | 95 |
Nationals vs Braves MLB Betting Preview
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview: Ticking Time Bomb
After an ever-lasting shuffle at the back end of the Braves rotation, they may have found a consistent option in rookie right-hander AJ Smith-Shawver.
He pitched in just seven major league games over the past two years but has already made six starts in 2025. He has a 2.76 ERA over 32 2/3 innings.
Is it sustainable, though? If his underlying numbers are any indication, the answer is a resounding, "No."
Smith-Shawver is excellent at generating swings and misses by using a low splitter to play off his high four-seamer. He boasts a strong 9.3 K/9, while ranking in the 72nd percentile in whiff rate and 63rd in strikeout percentage.
On the flip side, Smith-Shawver has walked two-plus batters in five of his six outings and owns a 4.1 BB/9. Eventually, the walks will come to bite him. Plus, he ranks in the 20th percentile or worse in xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
He feels like a ticking time bomb.
Remember when the Braves' offense suddenly started crushing baseball again? That was short-lived.
Since May 1, the Braves are 25th with an 87 wRC+. Until Ronald Acuna Jr. returns, Atlanta will likely endure some ebbs and flows based on how Matt Olson and Ozzie Albies are hitting.
The Braves only have two hitters with a wRC+ above 100 in May — stud third baseman Austin Riley and Eli White. Three hitters have a wRC+ below 25 — Albies, Alex Verdugo, and Nick Allen.
Washington Nationals Betting Preview: Williams Due for Positive Regression
It might sound crazy, but I’m ready to back Trevor Williams — just don’t look at his last three outings because they are ugly. Williams allowed four-plus runs in three consecutive outings while chewing up at least 5 1/3 innings each time.
So, why back Williams? He’s due for some major positive regression.
Despite having a 5.88 ERA, he has a 3.89 xERA, 3.97 FIP and 4.03 xFIP. Sometimes one of those stats can be a total outlier, but when all three are within .13 of one another, the outlier is likely the ERA.
The Nationals' offense is dealing with the same dilemma as the Braves.
They only have two players doing anything positive at the plate. The only difference is that the two Washington hitters putting up big numbers are two budding stars — James Wood and CJ Abrams. Each has a wRC+ over 100 in May with an OPS just shy of .900.
In all, the Nationals rank 22nd in wRC+ during May. But I like their approach and it should rattle Smith-Shawver.
I talked about his walk issues, which Washington can make him pay for with its 8.4% walk rate. Plus, it only strikes out around 21% of the time, putting them top 14 in walk and strikeout rate this month.
Nationals vs Braves Pick, Best Bets
I like the value in the Nationals here.
I know the Nationals snapped its seven game losing streak on Tuesday, but the gap between the two teams isn't enough to warrant the price. If the Braves had Spencer Schwellenbach on the mound, then it's understandable. But I'm not as sold on Smith-Shawver and he's a bit overrated here. I'll gladly ride with the road Nats.
Keep an eye at the end of the game situation as well. The closer advantage heavily favors the Nationals, as Kyle Finnegan shut the door on Tuesday and dropped his ERA to 2.87, compared to Raisel Iglesias, who has a 6.07 ERA for the Braves. The door is always open for the Nationals to make a charge. The door is just slightly ajar with Finnegan in the 9th.
Pick: Nationals ML (Play to +140)
Nationals vs Braves Betting Trends to Know
