The Cincinnati Reds host the Washington Nationals on Friday, May 2, 2025. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MASN2.
Find my Nationals vs Reds prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
Editor's Note: The start of the Nationals vs Reds game on Friday was delayed due to inclement weather.
My Nationals vs Reds Prediction
- Nationals vs Reds picks: F5 Nationals Team Total Under 2.5 (Play to 2)
My Nationals vs Reds best bet is under the Nationals' first five team total. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Nationals vs Reds Odds
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -125 | 8.5 -120 / +100 | +165 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +105 | 8.5 -120 / +100 | -200 |
Nationals vs Reds Projected Starting Pitchers
| Mitchell Parker (WSH) | Stat | Hunter Greene (CIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | W-L | 3-2 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 2.65 / 3.63 | ERA /xERA | 2.70 / 2.86 |
| 3.78 / 5.15 | FIP / xFIP | 3.50 / 3.43 |
| 1.13 | WHIP | 0.85 |
| 2.6 | K-BB% | 25.9 |
| 44.7 | GB% | 28.3 |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 124 |
| 103 | Location+ | 98 |
Feltman’s Nationals vs Reds Preview
Washington Nationals Betting Preview: Is This a Good Matchup for Parker?
Negative regression finally came to fruition for Nats starter Mitchell Parker in his last outing against the Mets. Parker was tagged for seven runs on seven hits, which forced his season ERA to climb to 2.65.
Parker's whiff and strikeout rates remain extremely low (below the 20th percentile), suggesting that hitters see the ball well out of his hand. He'll run into more trouble moving forward, and Friday's matchup is no picnic.
Parker has never faced the Reds before, and they don't hit lefties too well. It's also worth noting that the Reds have struggled to score runs at home, but that could also be due to the cold midwestern weather in early April.
It may seem like a good matchup for Parker, but I still like this Reds lineup. There's no way I feel comfortable backing the Nats with Parker on the mound, especially because they'll take on Hunter Greene.
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview: Greene is Nasty
On Friday, we get to see Hunter Greene, one of the best pitchers in baseball, on the mound.
At the beginning of the 2025 campaign, Greene was sensational, racking 43 strikeouts in 37 innings pitched.
The biggest issue Greene has faced in the past was his inconsistencies with his control. So far in 2025, his walk rate has significantly decreased, which is an encouraging sign for the remainder of the season.
He's straight-up nasty, featuring a high-velocity fastball and vicious wipe-out slider. Opposing hitters have a .200 xBA against him, which is elite.
Greene is still prone to allowing hard contact occasionally, but the rest of his metrics rank amongst the top of baseball. He's not a ground ball pitcher, but he misses more than enough bats to succumb to that.
Nationals vs Reds Prediction, Betting Analysis
I like the F5 Nationals Team Total Under on Friday. The Nationals hit right-handers slightly better than the lefties, but I think Greene dominates this spot.
I think the Reds win the game outright, but I would much rather back Greene on the mound, as he'll dominate. The Nats don't strike out very often, but Greene is elite enough in that department that he's matchup-proof.
The Nationals have a talented young lineup, but I think they'll struggle at the plate for most of the evening against Greene.
I'll eliminate bullpen variance and just target the first five innings.
Pick: F5 Nationals Team Total Under 2.5 (Play to 2)
Moneyline
I'm not taking anything on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm not taking anything on the run line.
Over/Under
I'm taking the Nationals team total under 2.5 through the first five innings.
