The Cincinnati Reds host the Washington Nationals on May 13, 2026. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NATS.
The Reds are favored by -168 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Nationals are +139 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find our MLB picks and Nationals vs Reds prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Nationals vs Reds Prediction
- Nationals vs Reds Pick: Under 9.5 (-122)
Our Nationals vs Reds best bet is on the under total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Nationals vs Reds Odds
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -149 | 9.5 101o / -122u | +139 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +123 | 9.5 101o / -122u | -168 |
- Nationals vs Reds moneyline: Nationals +139, Reds -168
- Nationals vs Reds over/under: 9.5 (+101o / -122u)
- Nationals vs Reds spread: Reds -1.5 (+123), Nationals +1.5 (-149)
Nationals vs Reds Probable Pitchers
| RHP Jake Irvin (WSN) | Stat | LHP Nick Lodolo (CIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | W-L | 0-1 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.1 |
| 5.22/5.07 | ERA / xERA | 6.75/13.04 |
| 4.28/4.27 | FIP / xFIP | 8.37/5.60 |
| 14.2% | K-BB% | 4.8% |
| 42.1% | GB% | 35.3% |
| .303 | BABIP | .200 |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 100 | Location+ | 103 |
Nationals vs Reds MLB Betting Preview
The Washington Nationals look to secure a series victory on Wednesday at Great American Ball Park following a historic power display in the opener.
Washington dismantled Cincinnati with a 10-4 win, fueled by a franchise-record-tying six home runs.
James Wood continued his impressive campaign with his 12th blast of the year, while Luis Garcia Jr. and Daylen Lile each turned in multi-homer performances.
The Nationals' success away from home has become a defining theme of their season; their 14-9 road record is currently the second-best in the majors, trailing only Atlanta.
Cincinnati enters this matchup in a desperate spot, having dropped nine of their last eleven games to fall into the cellar of the NL Central.
While Sal Stewart provided a spark with a three-hit game on Tuesday, the Reds' lineup struggled collectively, finishing a dismal 1-for-12 with runners in scoring position.
To even the series, they will turn to 28-year-old lefty Nick Lodolo. Lodolo is making just his second start of the year after a blister injury sidelined him for the first month.
He struggled in his debut against Houston, surrendering two home runs in a blowout loss, but historically he has been far more effective away from Cincinnati. He faces a tough matchup in Wood, who has dominated him in their limited head-to-head history.
Washington counters with Jake Irvin, who holds a 5.22 ERA through eight starts. Irvin is coming off a win against Minnesota where he navigated five innings despite allowing eight hits.
While his surface numbers are inflated, he has shown the ability to limit damage and pitch to contact, which could serve him well against a Reds offense that is currently struggling to find timely hits.
Nationals vs Reds Pick, Betting Analysis
Despite the offensive explosion seen in the series opener, the smart play for Wednesday points toward a lower-scoring affair.
This matchup fits the "Silent Sharp Unders" system from Evan Abrams. This system targets regular-season games where both teams are performing at a competent level, but the betting total has quietly decreased from its opening number.
The market is flashing a "soft signal" here; even though the Nationals are hitting home runs at a record pace and the Reds are desperate for a win, the sharp money is moving toward the Under.
This system finds value by betting against the public's tendency to chase high-scoring trends. While fans are focused on the 14-run total from Tuesday, the underlying factors—including Nick Lodolo’s expected improvement as he finds his rhythm and Jake Irvin’s ability to grind through starts—suggest a regression to the mean.
Pick: Under 9.5 (-122)
