Wednesday MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Our Favorite Bets, Including Angels vs. Astros, Rays-Cubs and Twins vs. Royals
Carmen Mandato/Getty Images. Pictured: Houston Astros standout Alex Bregman.
We’ve got another action-packed MLB slate on Wednesday, with 10 games starting in the evening window on the east coast.
Our staff is playing four of them — including three short moneylines.
Wednesday MLB Picks
|6:30 pm ET|
|8:10 pm ET|
Nationals vs. Diamondbacks
|Merrill Kelly vs, Erick Fedde|
DJ James: Merrill Kelly will pitch against Erick Fedde in the third game of a four-game set between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Washington Nationals. Fedde has not been too shabby early in the season, but his xERA is higher than his ERA at the moment, meaning he is getting a little lucky (4.03 vs. 3.60). Kelly, on the other hand has not allowed a run through two starts so far. This is impressive.
Now, in the 2022 campaign, these two teams are neck-and-neck, ranked 24th and 25th in wRC+ against right-handers. Both teams have relatively poor bullpens, so the difference in the starting pitchers determines the edge here.
Kelly uses a mix of five pitches but in 2022, he has increased his changeup usage.
On right-handed changeups, Juan Soto is the only one who has been able to hit out of the entire Nats roster with a .362 xwOBA since the beginning of 2021. On righty curves, Soto, Alcides Escobar, and Josh Bell all hold a .340+ xwOBA. Otherwise, there is a significant drop-off with the rest of the lineup. If Kelly can utilize his off-speed pitches effectively, as he has this season, he should mow down Nationals hitters.
Since the D-Backs are plus money with a better starting pitcher, taking them at +110 and down to -110 has value.
Angels vs. Astros
|Shohei Ohtani vs. Jake Odorizzi|
Jules Posner: The Angels have Shohei Ohtani starting and he’s highly overvalued on the road. He got roughed up last week in Texas and his career numbers indicate that he is a very fade-able road pitcher.
The Astros fare much better against right-handed pitchers. And that’s what Ohtani throws with, of course.
Jake Odorizzi is scary, but he can be annoyingly effective at times. He’s also a much better pitcher at home over his career and was pretty solid at home last season for the Astros.
Jose Altuve missed Tuesday’s game with a hamstring strain and although he is struggling early, he is still a stabilizing force in the Astros lineup. However the Astros team 114 wRC+ against RHP so far in 2022 shows that collectively, the Astros are well equipped to replace that production at the top of the lineup.
Ohtani’s 5.83 career road ERA and 4.02 road FIP are strong indicators that he’s just a different dude pitching on the road. I’m willing to fade the Angels as long as the Astros are in plus territory.
The Astros are a good value as long as they’re underdogs. The moneylne is the play here.
Rays vs. Cubs
|Drew Rasmussen vs. Marcus Stroman|
|6:30 p.m. ET|
Doug Ziefel: With strong winds blowing out to left-center field today in Wrigley, you will want to back the side that can keep the ball in the ballpark. The Cubs will have just the man for that job in Marcus Stroman.
A repertoire of sinkers, sliders, and a nasty split-change have made Stroman one of the premier ground ball pitchers in the league. He has a career groundball rate of 57%, which is well above average. In addition to that, Stroman’s arsenal not only produces a ton of grounders but minimizes fly balls as the average launch angle against him is just 5.9 degrees.
On the other hand, the Cubs’ bats are poised to do some damage. Drew Rasmussen has been hit hard early on this season as he’ll enter this start with an expected batting average of .316 and an xwOBA of .435. Not to mention two-thirds of Chicago’s order has a hard-hit rate of over 48.5%. He’ll also have to deal with a red-hot Seiya Suzuki and Wilson Contreras, who has quietly torn the cover off the ball.
If Stroman can settle in early, the power of the Cubs lineup aided by the wind should give him plenty of run support and put them in a great spot to come out of this one victorious.
Twins vs. Royals
|Chris Paddack vs. Daniel Lynch|
|8:10 p.m. ET|
Michael Arinze: The Twins grabbed plenty of headlines in the offseason after landing one of the most sought-after free agents in Carlos Correa. They also made other moves by acquiring third-baseman Gio Urshela and catcher Gary Sánchez from the Yankees. Free-agent starter Chris Archer joined the team on a one-year deal, and the Twins also added another starter in Sonny Gray via trade with the Reds.
At first glance, the Twin certainly looks like a contender. However, the team was well aware that it might lack some in the pitching department. They made a rare Opening Day trade to land Chris Paddack from the Padres.
I know Minnesota’s been disappointing given its 4-7 start. However, four of those losses were against the Dodgers and Red Sox, who are both in first place in their divisions. With those games behind them, look for the Twins to play considerably better against their upcoming opponents.
Paddack will get the start on Wednesday as the Twins look to even their series with the Royals at one game apiece. He faced the Dodgers in his first start and allowed three runs in four innings of work. However, he didn’t get much help from the offense as it was notably the game Clayton Kershaw pitched seven perfect innings without allowing a hit or a walk.
Kansas City will counter with Daniel Lynch, who allowed six runs in five innings against the Cardinals. Lynch’s 5.01 SIERA from last year could point to what bettors can expect from him this season. In contrast, Paddack projects to be a bit better, as evidenced by his 4.03 SIERA.
I think Minnesota’s lineup can have success against Lynch, particularly in the early frames of the game. Moreover, this line is right in the sweet spot of system play that’s been very profitable this season.
Short favorites with a moneyline ranging from -120 to -140 are 31-13-10 for 10.79 units in the first five innings. I like that trend to continue tonight with the Twins, and we can grab them at -125 at DraftKings.
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