MLB Odds & Picks for White Sox vs. Twins: High-Scoring Game Expected in Minnesota
Cole Burston/Getty Images. Pictured: Jose Abreu.
- The Twins host the White Sox on Saturday afternoon in an important AL Central clash.
- The White Sox will start Lance Lynn while the Twins will counter with Dylan Bundy.
- D.J. James breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.
White Sox vs. Twins Odds
|White Sox Odds||+105|
|Time||2:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
Both Dylan Bundy and Lance Lynn have had rough starts to their 2022 campaigns and are not what the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox expected upon entering this season. They will face off on Saturday in a duel between divisional foes in what shapes up to be a massive game for the American League Central crown down the stretch.
Each pitcher has been fairly unlucky, though. Bundy has a 4.68 ERA and 3.92 xERA, while Lynn’s ERA is 6.97 (in six starts) against a 3.92 xERA. They are exactly aligned in expected numbers. Shockingly, they both have similar peripheral profiles, too. Bundy is far more likely to get hitters to chase, while Lynn does not give up nearly as many hard-hit balls.
However, both the White Sox and Twins have shown they can hit right-handers well over the last month, and this is the main portion of this handicap. Both teams own an above average wRC+ (100+) off of righties since June 16, so expect plenty of runs, even if both pitchers have been unlucky.
Can Lynn Show Improvement for the White Sox?
Lynn is one of the most fiery pitchers in the MLB. He wears his heart on the mound, and surely his expectations are much loftier than what he has shown this season.
That said, he ranks in the 35th percentile in both Hard-Hit Percentage and Average Exit Velocity. The Twins have a team wRC+ of 126 off righties over the last month, so they will probably destroy some baseballs. Royce Lewis and Miguel Sanó are both on the 60-Day Injured List with Trevor Larnach on the 10-Day IL. Otherwise, the Minnesota lineup is predominantly healthy.
The Twins have eight hitters above a .350 xwOBA since June 16, which does not bode well for Lynn. In addition, six hitters are averaging at least 90 MPH off the bat in that same timeframe. Lynn will need to show he has some 2021-like performances left in him to get past this lineup because the odds are stacked against him.
The good news for Chicago fans is that the White Sox bullpen has been lockdown for the last month as Reynaldo López, Kendall Graveman, and Liam Hendriks have been strong. However, the middle of the relief corps can be questionable.
If Lynn exits early, the Twins could exploit those weaknesses and force a couple of runs across the plate. If it gets late, and they are trailing, don’t expect much off of this three-headed monster in the seventh, eighth, and nine innings.
Can Bundy and the Twins Handle a Challenging Lineup?
Bundy also has had trouble inducing weak contact. He ranks in the 45th percentile in Hard-Hit Percentage and in the 22nd percentile in Average Exit Velocity. This essentially aligns him with Lynn. Bear in mind, he only strikes batters out at a 17.9% rate and barely walks anyone (5.0%).
The White Sox rank dead-last in the MLB in Walk Rate but first in Chase Rate. It seems like Bundy will throw plenty of strikes, though, so they should jump on them. He may strike out more than usual, but this lineup has enough bats to attack him early in the count.
The White Sox have only four hitters over a .340 xwOBA off of righties in the last month, but the rest of the lineup has been tough as 10 batters are over a .315 mark. This says that they can at least string together hits throughout the order.
One of those 10 likely is not available, as Eloy Jiménez hurt his leg again, but the rest should be ready to go. José Abreu is one to watch in this game. He has two homers and is 8-for-20 off of Bundy in his career. If a bettor is looking for a prop bet, he is the one to target.
Minnesota’s bullpen ranks among the middle of the pack at a 3.93 xFIP. They have a few arms who can shut down the game, but they have had their woes. Expect the Sox to score a couple off of them, as well.
White Sox-Twins Pick
Either way, these lineups are far too strong to expect good outings from both Bundy and Lynn. Even with some strengths in the ‘pen for each, the over should hit. Take the over at 8.5 (-105), and play to 9 (-120). The bats should be on fire, as each team has power throughout the order.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-105) | play to 9 (-120)