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PRO home run projections are in for Game 4 of the World Series, with the Rays and Brewers set for Tuesday's matchup at Tropicana Field. The National League champs hold a 3-0 series lead, and they're favored to close it out tonight.
Using our expert-driven projection model, we’ve identified the best home run bets on the board, including hitters priced at +980, +920, and +850, marking the top value plays. Overall, eight hitters sit above the PRO threshold — meaning they show a 3.5% edge or better versus the market — while a few others stick out as players to avoid based on current odds.
This postseason, we’ve released free Action PRO home run projections every Tuesday. Subscribers unlock access to all projections across various sports.
Below, you’ll find the complete home run cheat sheet, sorted by highest grade, based on our experts’ probabilities versus the market. If this is the last MLB game of the season — cheers and thanks for reading all year long.
Rays vs. Brewers Home Run Projections, Picks, Insights
1. Junior Caminero (TB)
Best Odds: +525 (bet365)
PRO: 0.28
Edge: +8.4%
Caminero is the best value play on the board. He launched 42 during the regular season.
2. Yandy Diaz (TB)
Best Odds: +920 (FanDuel)
PRO: 0.17
Edge: +5.8%
3. Victor Mesa Jr. (TB)
Best Odds: +920 (FanDuel)
PRO: 0.16
Edge: +5%
4. Jake Bauers (MIL)
Best Odds: +575 (bet365)
PRO: 0.22
Edge: +4.9
5. Jonathan Aranda (TB)
Best Odds: +980 (FanDuel)
PRO: 0.15
Edge: +4.7
6. Christian Yelich (MIL)
Best Odds: +850 (bet365)
PRO: 0.16
Edge: +4.3%
7. Brice Turang (MIL)
Best Odds: +920 (FanDuel)
PRO: 0.15
Edge: +4.1%
8. Jackson Chourio (MIL)
Best Odds: +450 (bet365)
PRO: 0.25
Edge: +3.9%
These are when the edges drop off. PRO Projections recommend tailing picks with at least a +3.5% edge, so perhaps choose a more selective approach with this next crop of home run hitters.
9. Liam Hicks (TB)
Best Odds: +1300 (bet365)
PRO: 0.11
Edge: +3.3%
10. William Contreras (MIL)
Best Odds: +550 (bet365)
PRO: 0.20
Edge: +2.7%
11. Johnny DeLuca (TB)
Best Odds: +1200 (FanDuel)
PRO: 0.11
Edge: +2.7%
12. David Hamilton (MIL)
Best Odds: +1500 (bet365)
PRO: 0.08
Edge: +1.4%
13. Garrett Mitchell (MIL)
Best Odds: +900 (bet365)
PRO: 0.12
Edge: +1.7%
14. Cooper Pratt (MIL)
Best Odds: +1400 (FanDuel)
PRO: 0.08
Edge: +1%
15. Richie Palacios (TB)
Best Odds: +1300 (FanDuel)
PRO: 0.08
Edge: +0.5%
16. Sal Frelick (MIL)
Best Odds: +1400 (FanDuel)
PRO: 0.07
Edge: +0.1%
Finally, these are the Game 4 home run hitters graded with negative betting value.
17. Taylor Walls (TB)
Best Odds: +1800 (FanDuel)
PRO: 0.05
Edge: -0.4%
Our PRO signals flag far more great picks than our staff could author each day — that's where Action AI comes in. Using generative AI, signals that hit a high-grade threshold are written up into articles that are then vetted and edited by a human to help us get you all the sharp action. Read more about how it works here.
