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The Tampa Bay Rays host the Milwaukee Brewers on October 26, 2026. First pitch from Tropicana Field is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on FOX.
The Rays are favored by -120 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The Brewers are +102 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Brewers vs Rays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Brewers vs Rays Prediction
- Brewers vs Rays Pick: Brewers ML (-102)
My Brewers vs Rays best bet is on the Milwaukee moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Brewers vs Rays Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +172 | 7.5 112o / -138u | +102 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 7.5 112o / -138u | -120 |
- Brewers vs Rays moneyline: Brewers +102, Rays -120
- Brewers vs Rays over/under: 7.5 (+112o / -138u)
- Brewers vs Rays spread: Brewers -1.5 (+172), Rays +1.5 (-210)
Brewers vs Rays Probable Pitchers
| Robert Gasser (LHP, MIL) | Stat | Freddy Peralta (RHP, TBR) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-5 | W-L | 10-11 |
| 1.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.9 |
| 3.87/4.27 | ERA / xERA | 4.42/3.82 |
| 4.23/4.34 | FIP / xFIP | 4.28/4.37 |
| 14.7% | K-BB% | 12.7% |
| 32.7% | GB% | 39.4% |
| .267 | BABIP | .288 |
| 106 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 94 | Location+ | 106 |
Brewers vs Rays MLB Betting Preview
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview
With all the control in this series thus far, the Milwaukee Brewers will send left-hander Robert Gasser to the bump in Tampa on Monday night. The rookie, who had a cup of coffee in the big leagues over the previous two seasons, did a fair job when given an extended look this year. He finished with a 3.87 ERA, learning along the way how to pitch to contact and keep the ball in the strike zone.
Gasser is a strike-thrower with a solid 7.4% walk rate and a 22.3% strikeout rate, so his plate appearances aren't always resolved by one of the three true outcomes. The lefty has a 6.3% contact rate through the air, coming in around 10 points above the league average. While he avoids grounders quite well, he's spread all that contact evenly across fly balls, line drives and pop-ups.
Tropicana Field isn't one that generally sees a lot of offense, ranking bottom-five in park factor, but one thing to keep in mind is that it ranks 11th in home runs. The Rays also sit eighth in OPS versus fly-ball pitchers like Gasser, and just 18th against ground-ball specialists.
So, Gasser will look to simply keep hopes alive in this one for Milwaukee. His two outings this postseason have totaled nine innings, and he owns a 6:2 K-BB over those games with just one run allowed on a solo homer and six hits. His sinker and sweeper continue to carry a declining Expected Batting Average, too, and after his entire arsenal produced a .233 in September, he's down at .213 in October.
Helping matters for Gasser, too, is the fact that the Rays rank 26th in wRC+ versus lefties and fourth to righties. That could be what ultimately makes this game a hard ask for Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview
I say the lefty splits may put the Rays behind the proverbial eight ball, but they've also got Freddy Peralta pitching down 2-0 in the World Series. Many will tell you this is not Freddy Peralta on the mound; it's someone completely different, but I feel pretty confident that this is still Freddy Peralta.
First of all, you've been sold on the idea that Peralta has completely overhauled his arsenal with the Rays. This is somewhat true. Yes, when he was initially traded to Tampa Bay, his changeup usage spiked drastically. Sitting around 22% through three months in New York, he suddenly decided to ditch it in July and throw it just 14.4% of the time in his final month there, Then, it became the pitch he threw almost a third of the time, meaning he was almost entirely a fastball-changeup guy.
Well, since then, his changeup usage has declined, and he's sitting at 25.6% this October, which is really only marginally above an average Peralta month last year. The truth is that he's always been working on throwing it more, and since June, his xBA on the pitch has dropped each month.
Until we got to October. Opponents hit just .077 against Peralta's changeup in the final month of the year, but in the playoffs are hitting .200 with a .224 xBA. Sure, those aren't terrifying numbers, but they signal a regression. Keep in mind, too, that the Guardians — a terrible team versus changeups from righties this year — was Peralta's opposition in three of his four outings, with the Yankees rocking his changeup in his first start and Cleveland growing comfortable with it by the end of the series.
That's just the tip of the iceberg, too. Peralta has long been a pitcher who lacks any semblance of control on the mound, and since coming to the Rays, their tweaks have resulted in an increasing number of walks. Peralta's free-pass rate is now up over 10% this October, and for a guy who's consistently hovered around 9%, we certainly can't write this off as an anomaly.
Anyway, you can see above that this is still very much the flawed Peralta we are accustomed to seeing, and nowadays he hasn't even got the ability to strike batters out, as he's done so against just 17% of the ones he's faced this October after consistently finding himself just above 20% on the year.
Brewers vs Rays Pick, Betting Analysis
If this does wind up working out for Freddy Peralta and the Rays, I will tip my cap. I simply can't get over the fact that some sort of public narrative driven by Big Trop has led scores of fans to believe Peralta is some sort of unstoppable force on the mound, when in reality this version of Peralta may be even worse than the flawed ones we've seen in the past.
That's the point, really. We have always fallen in love with the idea of Peralta. If he ever figured out how to walk fewer batters, maybe he'd last more than five innings. If he could do that, with his strikeout ability, he could blossom into a top arm in the sport. It's all one big if.
The reality is that Peralta is 30 years old. He never delivered on his potential. He lost the ability to rack up strikeouts and, for a ninth straight year, has walked far too many batters. He still doesn't provide length. Now, he faces a Brewers team that ranks seventh in xBA against four-seamers from righties and fifth against changeups. This is a complete offense, and one which ranks first in walk rate.
It's simply not going to go well for Peralta here against his former team; it can't. This offense is too good, and they will see right through the elaborate ruse that is Freddy Peralta. When that inevitably happens, the Rays' offense will be forced to hit left-handers — something they haven't done — and to hit the ball in the air, which they don't want to do.
You know where I'm going with this one.
Pick: Brewers ML (-102)
