Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Wednesday, October 29.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Wednesday, I preview World Series Game 5. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Wednesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Wednesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Wednesday, October 29
World Series Futures and Props
Before getting into my projections and bets for Wednesday's World Series Game 5, I want to provide my updated series projection and analyze potential futures bets or props for the 2025 World Series.
The Dodgers re-opened as low as -165 at ESPNBet, compared to odds of -180 at Caesars and -190 at both DraftKings and FanDuel, to win the World Series before Game 5.
If you don't already have Dodgers futures, I would consider betting the current Dodgers' series price up to -169 (62.8% implied) at a 1% edge relative to my projected line.
Their best available odds to win the series 4-2 or to cover their -1.5 games spread (+170 in both markets at Caesars) directly align with my projection (+170).
You can add some Dodgers series moneyline at the lone book where I show an edge. Otherwise, I don't project actionable value in the World Series futures markets.
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers World Series Game 5 Pick
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 8 -115o / -105u | +170 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 8 -115o / -105u | -205 |
Trey Yesavage vs. Blake Snell
Game 5 of the 2025 World Series is a rematch of Game 1, this time at a different venue.
The Dodgers closed as -150 favorites (60% implied) at Rogers Centre, and one would expect their projected win probability to swing at least 6% (for Home Field Advantage) to -194 (66% implied) or higher, moving the same matchup to Dodger Stadium.
When you factor in George Springer's potential absence for the Blue Jays, the market has properly adjusted the Dodgers north of -200 for Game 5. And even though our prop bet from Tuesday — for the series to finish in five games — lost, the fair odds on that bet should have been closer to +125 than +160, given the Dodgers' respective odds in Games 4 and 5.
Still, while this is the same pitching matchup as Game 1, it's also the first road playoff start, and just the third career road start in an MLB venue for Trey Yesavage, who faced the Rays and Royals on the road in both his MLB debut and sophomore outing.
The Dodgers are more readily able to prepare for Yesavage's unique, over-the-top arm angle and splitter at home, using their Trajekt machine, and the rookie could continue to struggle with command (12% walk rate combined in seven combined MLB regular and postseason appearances) in the most high-pressure environment of his career.
The Blue Jays showed the ability to wear down Blake Snell (100 pitches three batters into the sixth innings), and if they can continue to get into the Dodgers' shaky bullpen, they can pull the upset and head back home with a 3-2 series lead.
Toronto may or may not have George Springer (oblique) back in their lineup before the end of the series, as they are evaluating his status "hour-by-hour." I'm projecting Springer as out for Game 5 against Snell, with Bo Bichette moving to the leadoff spot as the DH. If Springer and Bichette both play, it upgrades Toronto's offense but downgrades the defense, which would only increase my confidence in the wager provided below.
Snell generated only a 24% called-strike plus whiff rate (CSW%) in Game 1 against the Blue Jays, compared to 41% against the Reds, 37% against the Phillies, and 41% against the Brewers. Snell's strikeout prop Under closed at 6.5 (-114) in Game 1, and you can find plus money overnight for Game 5, compared to our Action Labs projection of 6.1 strikeouts — I would bet Under 6.5 Ks to -110.
The Dodgers may consider swapping Andy Pages, who is 4-for-50 in the postseason, out for Alex Call (113 wRC+ vs. RHP; 1 DRS) to try to jumpstart the bottom of their lineup.
Aside from his explosive debut (46% CSW%) and elite ALDS start against the Yankees (45% CSW%), Yesavage has looked far more average in his other outings (28% and 32% CSW% in his second and third starts; 30% in World Series Game 1; 27% and 32% in two ALCS starts against Seattle).
Still, although we bet Yesavage Under 5.5 strikeouts (-120) in Game 1, I cannot recommend the Under on his strikeout prop in Game 5 (Action Labs projected 4.9, listed 4.5 +138) with John Schneider looking for length — and likely more outs than his listed total of 12.5 — in front of a tired, eight-man bullpen.
The Dodgers' bullpen remains the better-rested of the two units and has an additional pitcher. However, Jack Dreyer, Blake Treinen, and Anthony Banda each threw for the second consecutive day in Game 4.
The Blue Jays used Chris Bassitt, Mason Fluharty, and Louis Varland each on back-to-backs and for the third time in the series. Moreover, closer Jeff Hoffman — who has also worked twice, including 33 pitches in Game 3 — was warming behind Varland in the ninth inning on Tuesday.
I modeled the Dodgers as -205 favorites for the first five innings (F5) and -187 favorites for the game on Wednesday. As a result, I don't project value on either side of the moneyline in either half of game 5.
However, I projected the total at 8.5 runs, and I would bet Over 7.5 to 8 at -110.
FanDuel opened its total exactly at that price target before moving down to 7.5, after the remainder of the market opened at 7.5 (-115), but the juice has started to move toward -120 as of writing.
First pitch temperatures should be in the high 80s (near 87 degrees) with the weather remaining warm into the late innings (78 degrees at 8 p.m. local), as these shaky bullpens enter the fray.
Pick: Over 7.5 (Play to 8 -110)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, October 29
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Sides and Totals
- Over 7.5 (-112, 1u) at DraftKings; bet to 8 (-110)
Game 5 Player Props
- Blake Snell Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105, 0.1u) at BetMGM; bet to -110
- Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 Home Runs (-220, 0.1u) at BetMGM; bet to -250
Series Props and Futures
- N/A
