Sunday Features Two Highest MLB Over/Unders in the Past 7 Years
Steve Flynn-USA TODAY Sports.
- After 30 runs were scored in London's Yankees-Red Sox game, the over/under for Sunday's game (10:10 a.m. ET, ESPN) opened at 15.5 and has moved up to 16.5 - making it the highest we've ever tracked by two runs.
- Before that game's lines opened, the Dodgers-Rockies game (3:10 p.m. ET) had an over/under that was set to be the highest since 2012 at 13.5.
There have been more than 15,000 (yes, thousand) games played since we’ve seen an over/under of 13.5 in the MLB. On Sunday, there could be two of them, including the highest over/under our Bet Labs Database has ever tracked and potentially one of the highest ever.
After a ridiculous 30 runs scored in Saturday’s game in England, including 12 in the first inning to go over the total of 11.5, oddsmakers opened Sunday’s Yankees-Red Sox game in London at an insane 15.5 — a full run higher than any game since 2005. But that wasn’t high enough, as it was bet up to 16.5 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook a half hour after opening.
Meanwhile, at Coors Field, the Dodgers and Rockies game opened with a total of 13.5 — a mark that would have been the highest since September, 2012 if the London game hadn’t overtaken it.
That game seven years ago was actually not at Coors Field, either, and instead at Wrigley Field. The total closed at 14 and there was another game at Wrigley in 2010 that closed with a total of 14.5 — the previous high water mark.
Both games with totals of 14 or more at Wrigley featured winds of 20-plus mph blowing out to left field and I wouldn’t be shocked if we see another total that high in Chicago this year if the conditions are just right.
Sunday’s London game will be played three hours earlier, but the temperatures are expected to be about 10 degrees cooler than the upper 80s we saw on Saturday. FantasyLabs’ Weather Rating, which logged a 71 out of 100 on Saturday, is at just a 49 for Sunday’s matinee (or early morning wake-up call for Americans).
There weren’t really any cheap home runs hit over the short center field fence, but it was very clear that the pitchers were not on their A game given the unusual playing circumstances.
Eduardo Rodriguez will have the tall task of going more than 0.1 inning to best Rick Porcello’s mark, while Stephen Tarpley is set to open for New York. Both squads might need their pitchers to take one on the chin if need be, as they both used eight men on the mound in Game 1.
At Coors, Kenta Maeda will be going for L.A., while Chi Chi Gonzalez will start his second game for the Rockies and second game in the majors since 2016. He pitched 5 innings and allowed 3 runs in his debut. Temperatures north of 90 degrees could cause balls to fly ever farther than usual in Denver’s thin air, which is likely part of the reason why the total is so high.
So, how have really high totals fared historically? Well, we only have those three games on file that have closed at 13.5 or higher and the over has gone 2-1 in them. Not much to go off of, though.
In the 25 games with totals of 13 or more, the over is 14-8-3, but if we really beef up the sample size and look at games with totals of 12 or more, the over is just 69-81-10. I would imagine the London game sees some sharp action on the under if it continues to sit at 16.5 or even 16, though I can’t say for certain.
Is the one-game sample size enough to make a total ~6 runs higher than it might be at Fenway or Yankee Stadium? We shall see.