MLB Odds, Picks: Yankees vs Dodgers Prediction Today
Mike Stobe/Getty Images. Pictured: Giancarlo Stanton of the New York Yankees.
- The New York Yankees meet the Los Angeles Dodgers in a Friday night matchup.
- The Yankees welcome back Giancarlo Stanton, who has missed most of the season with an injury.
- Check out Kenny Ducey's full betting preview and pick for Yankees vs. Dodgers on Friday night below.
Yankees vs Dodgers Odds
-104 / -118
-104 / -118
The Yankees are feeling good coming off a series win in Seattle and will now head into Los Angeles with some reinforcements to help in their quest for a third straight. Will they be enough to overcome Clayton Kershaw and a red-hot Dodgers offense?
Let's get into how to bet this one in our Yankees vs. Dodgers preview and prediction.
The Yankees have dealt with plenty of injuries this season, but there are few bigger than the one to Giancarlo Stanton.
Despite his age, Stanton is still arguably the next-most important player in the Yankees lineup after Aaron Judge, providing protection for the reigning MVP and bringing a much-needed power threat to the heart of this order at all times.
Well, Stanton has been out for what feels like the entire season to this point, but he's back on Friday to play in his hometown of Los Angeles.
Joining him in coming off the injured list is Josh Donaldson, who had a great spring and was shelved due to injury after just five games, and Tommy Kahnle, who will provide some much-needed relief to this bullpen.
Speaking of returns from injury, this will be the third start that Luis Severino has made since his activation off the IL a couple of weeks ago.
He's been rock-solid so far with a 1.59 ERA and 2.32 xERA through 11.1 innings, though the Dodgers should pose a bigger threat than the Reds and Padres. Still, it's a good start for Severino, who has battled various injuries over the last few years and had a spectacular 3.18 ERA through just over 100 innings last season with a 27.7% strikeout rate.
His .165 xBA is exquisite to this point and the strikeouts have still been relatively easy to find at a 23.3% clip. I feel pretty good about him coming into this one.
Another oft-injured starter who is coming off a great 2022 is Clayton Kershaw, who will get the ball here for the Dodgers.
He had arguably the best year he's had since turning 30 with a 2.28 ERA and 2.51. It's been a bit rougher in 2023 for the lefty, who has a 3.32 ERA through 11 starts — and he's actually seemed to get worse with a 5.55 ERA here in May.
Kershaw has now allowed exactly four earned runs in each of his last two starts, and the troubling sign here is that he really hasn't even been bitten by the home run bug. He's walked five in his last two outings, spanning 8.2 innings, and going back across his last three starts, he's now allowed 18 hits in his last 12.2 innings.
The good news here is that his strikeout rate remains very high at 29.4%, but the number of hits he's allowed has been a huge issue. This newfound bout with walks is certainly an eyebrow-raiser considering that's one area he's never struggled before.
At any rate, this Dodgers offense has been on fire with 21 runs in their three games against the Nationals and some crooked numbers against the Rays prior to that. They lead baseball with a 131 wRC+ in the last two weeks.
Yankees vs Dodgers Betting Pick
The Dodgers have relied on home runs and extra-base hits with a .225 ISO in the last two weeks, and they've struck out in a relatively poor 22% of plate appearances.
Severino has been great at limiting barrels throughout his career at just a 6.8% clip and should give little away here against the Dodgers.
I think there are some serious concerns right now with Kershaw, who is in a big-time funk at the moment. The Yankees offense has been trending upward and should get even stronger here with Stanton back in the lineup.
On the mound, I think this embattled bullpen will welcome Kahnle with open arms.
I'm buying all shares of the Yankees I can right now, so I will gladly take them here as road underdogs.