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Yankees vs. Guardians MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Total Has Value in Cleveland (Friday, July 1)

Yankees vs. Guardians MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Total Has Value in Cleveland (Friday, July 1) article feature image
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Adam Hunger/Getty Images. Pictured: Giancarlo Stanton #27 of the New York Yankees.

  • The Yankees are on the road again in Cleveland to face the Guardians Friday night.
  • New York is the favorite (-225) in tonight's matchup, but the over/under (8.5) is more intriguing to MLB writer Nick Shlain.
  • Find his game analysis and betting pick below.

Yankees vs. Guardians Odds

Yankees Odds -210
Guardians Odds +180
Over/Under 8.5
Time 7:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The New York Yankees have the best record in all of baseball at 56-21, but their road trip got off on the wrong foot Thursday as they dropped a 2-1 contest in Houston.

The Cleveland Guardians are a team the Yankees might see in the playoffs as with a 39-34 record the Guardians are just one game behind the American League Central division leading Minnesota Twins. The Guardians won each of their last two games which were at home and against the Twins.

Cleveland will look to improve on its 19-15 home record whereas the Yankees are 22-12 on the road this season. Who will get the job done in this battle of American League contenders?

Yankees Offense Can Feast on Poor Pitching

Aaron Civale has a 7.20 ERA on the season, which isn’t what you want to see going up against an offense like the Yankees, who lead all of baseball in runs scored entering play Friday.

Civale’s last two starts since coming off the injured list have been okay. He completed only four innings in his last start, allowed three earned runs and struck out two batters. Two starts ago, he was able to complete five innings, allowed only two runs and struck out seven batters.

Civale isn’t as bad as his 7.20 ERA suggests as he has a 5.17 xFIP this year and his career ERA is 4.23. He’s probably not the same pitcher that had a 3.84 ERA in 123.1 innings last year either, but somewhere in-between. That’s still not enough to say he has the advantage against a lineup with Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton.

It’s also worth noting that Civale has a higher home ERA 4.41 in his career than on the road 4.07 ERA.


Can the Cleveland’s Lefty Hitters Get to Gerrit Cole?

While rumors of Gerrit Cole’s demise due to a reliance on sticky stuff was greatly exaggerated last year, he’s put together another fantastic season with a 2.99 ERA this year.

Cole’s been especially good lately as over his last three starts he’s allowed just two earned runs combined in 20.1 innings while striking out 27 batters. It’s worth noting that Cole has pitched batter at home this year with a 2.31 ERA at home compared to 3.93 on the road.

The Guardians have a few left-handed power hitters that can take advantage of Cole, though, in Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor and Andres Gimenez, who each have at least a .221 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Cleveland’s ballpark is also beneficial for left-handed hitters because of the dimensions and the wall are much shorter in right field.

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Yankees-Guardians Pick

As tempted as I am to continue betting the Yankees in this tremendous season they’re having, I’m going to go with the over 8.5 (+100) on DraftKings Sportsbook. The model I use projects there to be about 9.5 runs in this game.

While I think the Yankees ultimately win the game, the Guardians aren’t a bad team and they’ve been pretty good at home, especially lately. I don’t trust Civale to hold down the Yankees in this spot and as I mentioned Cole has a 3.93 ERA on the road this year. At +100, there’s value to be had on the over here.

Pick: Over 8.5 (+100)

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