Yankees vs. Red Sox MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Total Has Value in Evening Affair (Saturday, August 13)

Yankees vs. Red Sox MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Total Has Value in Evening Affair (Saturday, August 13) article feature image

Joshua Bessex/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99).

  • The Yankees are favored to get past the Red Sox in this Saturday night rivalry game.
  • Alex Hinton discusses where the value lies ahead of the AL East clash.
  • Read on for his best bet and game breakdown.

Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds

Yankees Odds-155
Red Sox Odds+125
Over/Under9 (-110/-110)
Time7:15 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The best rivalry in the MLB is the New YorkYankees vs. the Boston Red Sox.

This season, despite the Red Sox being at the bottom of the AL East standings, the Yankees and Red Sox have played some thrilling games.

On Saturday, the rivalry will be in the spotlight once as "America's Game of the Week" on Fox. Is another high-scoring Yankees-Red Sox game in store?

Let's dive into it.

Yankees in Midst of Slump

Since beginning the season 56-21, the Yankees are just 15-20 in their last 35 games.

More recently, the Yankees are 1-6 on their current road trip. Despite recent struggles, the offense has not been the issue. New York is still averaging 4.57 runs per game since the all-star break.

When the Yankees are rolling offensively, it is usually because of the long ball. The Yankees lead the league with 192 home runs on the year and they have hit 34 since the All Star break. New York gets over 52% of its runs via home runs.

Of course, leading the majors in home runs as a team is easier when you have the league's leading home run hitter. Outfielder Aaron Judge has 46 home runs on the year. However, he has been especially hot of late, with eight home runs in 15 games and 17 home runs in his last 30 games.

First baseman Anthony Rizzo is second with 27 home runs. Rizzo and Judge are among nine Yankees with double digit home runs.

Frankie Montas will get the start for the Yankees. He was the team's big acquistion at the trade deadline, but he didn't have a great New York debut. Montas allowed six runs on five hits and walked three in three innings against the Cardinals. Between his time with the As and Yankees, Montas is 4-9 with a 3.59 ERA.

He ranks in the 86th percentile in Chase Rate. However, he gives a ton of hard contact, ranking in the 42nd percentile in Average Exit Velocity and in the 51st percentile in Hard Hit Rate. At Fenway Park, that can be problematic. Montas has only made start at Fenway Park in his career, but he allowed seven runs (one earned) and two home runs.

Red Sox in Midst of Pitching Nightmare

The Yankees are not the only ones who have been struggling as of late. Boston is just 13-25 in its last 38 games and 8-13 since the All Star break. Pitching has been the main issue as Boston has over a 6.00 ERA since that time.

Kutter Crawford will get the start on Saturday night. He is 3-4 with a 4.30 ERA and 60 strikeouts in 58.2 innings. The 26-year old has allowed seven homers in eight starts this season, which can be an issue against the Yankees.

He has a 2.57 ERA in seven innings against the Yankees this season. Crawford ranks in the 79th percentile in Hard Hit Rate, but in the 42nd percentile in Average Exit Velocity, 45th percentile in xBA, and 32nd percentile in xSLG.

Boston's lineup has not seen much of Montas, but it has had success against him. Rafael Devers is 5-for-8 against Montas. Alex Verdugo, Tommy Pham, Eric Hosmer and J.D. Martinez are all 2-for-6 against him. Boston's offense is also much better at home. It hits .263 with a .756 OPS as a team at Fenway compared to .249 with a .691 OPS on the road.

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Yankees-Red Sox Pick

The Yankees and Red Sox have met 11 times this season and there have been 10 runs scored in seven of those meetings.

Another matchup this season finished with nine. Statistically speaking, you're starting off with a 72% chance that there will be at least nine runs scored and putting you in the range of hitting the over. That is before digging into the matchup.

The Yankees offense can be inconsistent, especially recently. However, when the Yankees are connecting for homers, it can be put big numbers up offensively. Crawford will give them the opportunity to hit a few out of the yard. They will just have to take advantage when those mistake pitches come.

Boston's lineup has had success against Montas. It will also be Montas' first experience of the rivalry and it can be overwhelming for some. For example, Boston hits Gerrit Cole extremely well at Fenway.

The Yankees bullpen has struggled as well, including another blown save in last night's loss. All these signs point to another high scoring battle in the Yankees-Red Sox series.

I will be taking the over.

Pick: Over 9

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