Yankees vs. Red Sox MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back the Yankees in New York (Sept. 14)

Yankees vs. Red Sox MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back the Yankees in New York (Sept. 14) article feature image

Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Judge

  • Nestor Cortes had a bad outing against the Red Sox earlier this season, but he and the Yankees are better positioned this time around.
  • Find out why our MLB betting analyst is backing the more consistent arm and hotter offense on Wednesday night.

Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds

Yankees Odds-130
Red Sox Odds+110
Over/Under9 (+100 / -120)
Time7:10 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Yankees are beginning to find their groove again with seven wins over their last 10 games. And on Wednesday, they will take aim at a series win over their division rivals.

Boston is a team without much hope at the moment, but it will turn to one of its brightest young names in Brayan Bello for a win to build morale.

What happens in this one? Let's take a look.

New York Yankees

The Yankees will give the ball to Nestor Cortes for the second time since he was placed on the injured list in late August. His first start lasted just four innings, but in that outing, the left-hander allowed just two runs on two hits over 58 pitches.

Presumably, Cortes will be stretched out a bit longer in this game. He was regularly around 90 pitches prior to injury. And despite his ERA coming up a hair, he was still sailing along in his first All-Star campaign. One outing that gave him some trouble this year was his start in Boston, which saw him allow four earned over 3 2/3 on eight hits. Cortes was victimized by the home run in that one, so it's probably nice to hear that the Red Sox have hit just six in the last week to rank near the bottom of the league.

Speaking of the last week, can we talk about the job the Yankees have done at the plate? They're sixth in wRC+ over that time with a league-best 14 homers and a high 11.1% walk rate. The power is back, and the Yankees are once again putting together good at-bats, striking out at a low 21.1% clip.

Boston Red Sox

As noted above, Boston can't really say the same when it comes to power, though the bright side for the Red Sox would be a 113 wRC+ over the last seven days with plenty of hits and walks and not a ton of strikeouts.

Boston has been solid against lefties all year with a 112 wRC+, but some more troubling and perhaps noteworthy figures would be a low 8.6% walk rate and high 23.6% strikeout rate. The punchouts rank in the bottom-nine of the league and a tame .130 ISO against lefties sits 13th.

Runs could be necessary with Brayan Bello on the hill for Boston. While I've been one of his biggest cheerleaders all season and believe in his long-term outlook, there's plenty to be concerned about with this game. Bello has walked 11.7% of batters this season, which is 3.3% higher than league average, and his high strikeout numbers from the minors have yet to translate to the majors with a 21.1% strikeout rate.

Bello's contact numbers aren't all that alarming — he has pitched to a .343 xwOBA on contact and a .214 xBA — but the walks have done him in.

Yankees-Red Sox Pick

Cortes did have one bad outing this season against the Red Sox, but that was a different time. Boston was hitting the ball well back then, and we can't really expect the type of power it showed against Cortes this time around.

I'm concerned with Bello's walk rate against a Yankees team that really gets on base via the free pass. It's simply a nightmare matchup for the young right-hander, who has yet to really start against a team like New York.

I'm going to side with the more consistent arm and the hot offense to get it done.

Pick: Yankees ML (-125)

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