Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds, Preview, Prediction: New York Offense Sets Sights On Nick Pivetta (Saturday, September 25)
Jim Rogash/Getty Images. Pictured: Anthony Rizzo and Aaron Judge
Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds
| Yankees Odds | -105 |
| Red Sox Odds | -115 |
| Over/Under | 10 (-105/-115) |
| Time | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network |
The Red Sox were rolling. Boston had won seven straight entering this pivotal three-game set with New York.
And after building up a two-game lead in the wild-card race, the Yankees stopped the Sox in their tracks. Gerrit Cole pitched well and the Bombers dropped eight runs on Nathan Eovaldi.
The Yankees are now just one game back of Boston for the top wild-card spot. Can Nick Pivetta and the Red Sox bounce back? Or will the Yankees decide the series tonight?
Yankees' Offense Is Cooking
The Yankees send Nestor Cortes Jr. to the mound, and he's been more than adequate since joining the rotation full time.
He's posted a 3.33 ERA over his past nine starts, and the Yankees won six of those games. However, his xFIP is up over 4.50, indicating there's room for regression.
Cortes is a fastball-heavy pitcher, throwing a four-seam and cutter about two-thirds of the time. He also mixes in a slider that has a good amount of horizontal movement.
The Yankees have won four straight and seven of their last 10, and the offense has been cooking. They've posted a 108 wRC+ over the past month, but a .853 OPS over the past two weeks, which is good for third in baseball over that stretch.
When Giancarlo Stanton goes, the whole Yankees offense goes. He had a three-hit night Friday, building on a 16-game stretch where he's posted a .950 OPS.
He also added this opposite-field homer for good measure:
Giancarlo Stanton – New York Yankees (32) pic.twitter.com/uV2h8m6ImE
— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) September 25, 2021
Red Sox Turn To Pivetta
It was a very, very poor outing for Eovaldi Friday night.
However, he's prone to blow-up innings. Although his numbers aren't as good, Nick Pivetta is slightly more consistent.
Pivetta's given up either three or four runs in eight of his past 11 starts, mixing in a few shutouts in the process. However, that formula hasn't been working for the Red Sox, who are 4-7 in those games.
However, the offensive formula has been working. The lineup has posted a .950 OPS over the past week, and their 152 wRC+ during that stretch is the best in baseball.
Only Tampa and Houston have scored more runs than the Red Sox this season, but the pitching continues to be iffy in Beantown. Luckily, the inconsistent bullpen is on a hot streak, as Boston ranks among the top 10 teams in reliever FIP over the past month (3.94).
Yankees-Red Sox Pick
Despite these two high-flying offenses, the Yankees and Red Sox are 7-3 to the under in their past 10 matchups. However, they cashed the over 9 pretty easily Friday, and both lineups are sure to be frisky and motivated considering the importance of this game.
So while it's tough for me to play the side or the total in this game, but one player prop stands out to me: Pivetta's strikeout total.
While the projection market has him at 5.4, I am leaning toward the under 5.5 number DraftKings is offering us at -130.
Pivetta has hit six strikeouts in just three of his last 10 starts, and while the Yankees are prone to striking out, they've posted MLB's 14th-lowest strikeout rate vs. RHPs over the past month (22.7%).
With a motivated, potentially more-disciplined Yankees lineup on deck, I don't expect Pivetta to reach the six-strikeout mark today. I'm betting the under 5.5 at -130 but would also hunt around to find a better line.
Pick: Nick Pivetta Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130)
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