The UFC is taking their annual trip to Abu Dhabi this weekend, with a 12-fight card headlined by middleweight contenders Robert Whittaker and Reinier de Ridder.
This one has a special noon ET start time, so be sure to get your bets in on time. The prelims air on ESPN, with the five-fight main card on ABC.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Nashville odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Abu Dhabi Predictions & Luck Ratings
Robert Whittaker (-142) vs. Reinier de Ridder (+120)
Renier de Ridder is the rare UFC free agent signing that's actually panned out. Since jumping over from ONE FC where he held the heavyweight and light heavyweight titles, he's gone 3-0 in the UFC.
On top of that, all three wins were inside the distance, with an upset win over Bo Nickal the icing on the cake.
"RDR" is known for his grappling, but was able to finish the All-American wrestler with strikes. That won't be Plan A against the always dangerous Robert Whittaker, but it's a good sign that he has those tools in his toolbox.
de Ridder was a +136 underdog on Monday morning on DraftKings and has already dropped to +120. I'm going to jump on the +130 lines still available at Caesars Sportsbook or BetMGM now, with a potential to make an arbitrage bet on "Bobby Knuckles" later in the week.
Verdict: de Ridder Undervalued
Bryce Mitchell (-122) vs. Said Nurmagomedov (+102)
I'm pretty surprised to see Nurmagomedov with plus-money odds for his fight against Bryce Mitchell. A fight in Abu Dhabi is something like home turf for the Dagestani fighter, who has a 7-3 UFC record and has never been finished.
His opponent, Bryce Mitchell, is cutting down to 135lbs after dropping two of his last three at featherweight, both inside the distance. He's 8-3 in the promotion, with each loss by finish.
The market is evidently more optimistic that the weight cut helps Mitchell than I am. I view moving down in weight as typically a negative move for fighters as they get older, as the first traits to go — namely speed and reaction time — are typically those that lighter fighters have in abundance.
Plus, I'm not sure Mitchell ends up with much of a size or strength edge in this matchup. With most Tapology predictions coming in on Nurmagomedov, I want his plus-money line while it's still there. The best offer is +105 at Caesars.
Verdict: Nurmagomedov Undervalued
Amanda Ribas (-185) vs. Tabatha Ricci (+154)
I was equally surprised to discover that this fight was not in fact a rematch, as both Ricci and Ribas have hung around the back half of the UFC's strawweight rankings for what feels like many years at this point.
Both Brazilians have similar backgrounds, with black belts in both Judo and Jiu-Jitsu while training with their fathers from a young age.
They've also both dabbled at flyweight, with Ricci going 0-1 in the larger division and Ribas going 1-4.
Given how closely matched they are and how likely this fight is to need the judges, I'd gladly make a bet on either woman at plus-money. At the moment that happens to be Ricci, with DraftKings having the best odds at +154.
I'd expect this line to move closer to a pick 'em throughout the week, though, so this is another potential arbitrage spot.
Verdict: Ricci Undervalued
