Eryk Anders vs. Darren Stewart UFC 263 Odds, Pick & Prediction: Find Betting Value in Saturday’s Rematch (June 12)

Eryk Anders vs. Darren Stewart UFC 263 Odds, Pick & Prediction: Find Betting Value in Saturday’s Rematch (June 12) article feature image
Credit:

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured (L-R): UFC fighters Eryk Anders and Darren Stewart.

  • Eryk Anders and Darren Stewart go head-to-head at UFC 263 in a rematch of their fight in March that ended in a no-contest.
  • Anders nearly won the last fight before the stoppage and enters Saturday's bout as the favorite (-150 odds).
  • Sean Zerillo discusses whether there is enough value on either side of this matchup.

Eryk Anders vs. Darren Stewart Odds

Anders Odds
-150
Stewart Odds
+120
Over/Under
2.5 (-157 / +122)
Venue
Gila River Arena
Time
Approx. 9 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN
Odds as of Friday and via PointsBet.

Amongst the title fight rematches on Saturday night, there is also a rematch on the prelims between Eryk Anders and Darren Stewart, who fought to a no-contest in March.

Stewart hurt Anders early in the first fight before the former Alabama linebacker rallied and appeared close to finishing Stewart with less than 30 seconds remaining in the first round.

However, Anders threw an illegal knee while Stewart was technically grounded, and the fight was almost immediately called off and declared a no-contest

Stewart closed as a -190 favorite (implied 65.5%) for the first fight and has climbed as high +120 (implied 45.5%) for the rematch. On principle, it seems like he might be the value side this time around — but is that actually the case?

Below I preview the matchup and odds for tonight’s fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.

UFC 263 Promos: Win $200 on a punch, more!

Bet $20, Win $200 if Adesanya lands a punch!

Bet $5, Win $150 if Adesanya wins!

And more …

Tale of the Tape

Anders Stewart
Record 13-5 (1 NC) 12-6 (2 NC)
Avg. Fight Time 12:36 9:12
Height 6’1″ 6’0″
Weight (pounds) 185 lbs. 185 lbs.
Reach (inches) 75″ 74″
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Date of birth 4/21/87 12/30/90
Sig Strikes Per Min 3.23 3.09
SS Accuracy 46% 44%
SS Absorbed Per Min 4.15 3.09
SS Defense 51% 50%
Take Down Avg 1.62 1.50
TD Acc 35% 40%
TD Def 80% 65%
Submission Avg 0.1 0.1

Going into the first matchup, it appeared that Stewart might have the edge both in terms of grappling upside, and striking volume.

However, Anders was actively pressuring Stewart, and fighting much more aggressively after moving his camp to Fight Ready MMA and finally looked to have made improvements to his overall game that many had been hoping to see for a while.

Most importantly, Anders was the one who looked dominant in the grappling exchanges (landed 3-of-7 takedowns secured 2:35 of control time) and he had the power advantage in the striking exchanges; which is a statement against a large man-like Stewart.

Anders is famously durable, and he quickly recovered from some big shots by Stewart in order to turn the first fight in his favor.

Considering the fact that Stewart didn’t appear to have any of the advantages that were presupposed the first time around, I’m not surprised to see Anders come back as the favorite in this spot.

The must-have app for UFC bettors

The best UFC betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

Anders vs. Stewart Pick

I project slight value on Anders to win this fight inside the distance (projected +178, listed +200), but considering the fact that I projected Stewart as a large favorite (67%) the first time around, and bet him to win by decision (at +130), I’m hard-pressed to completely flip my opinion on this matchup.

On principle, I would typically bet Stewart here as an underdog, given the 20% price adjustment since the first fight. However, he either had a really bad day — while Anders had a good one — or Stewart’s perceived advantages went away once the two finally met in the cage.

Generally speaking, English wrestlers seem to fall short of expectations, and even though I think Stewart can be an effective UFC fighter, perhaps Anders is too sturdy to succumb to that type of game plan.

I think there’s value on Anders to finish the fight (legally) this time — but I’m going to pass on this fight altogether, given the odds history of this matchup.

The Pick: Pass

How would you rate this article?