UFC 263 Odds, Predictions & Model Projections: Betting Analysis for All 14 Fights (Saturday, June 12)

UFC 263 Odds, Predictions & Model Projections: Betting Analysis for All 14 Fights (Saturday, June 12) article feature image
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Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: A detailed shot of the UFC Legacy Championship Belt.

The UFC returns to Arizona on Saturday night with a loaded 14-fight card for UFC 263 that includes a pair of title fights in the men’s middleweight and flyweight divisions, plus the first five-round non-title co-main event in UFC history.

The preliminary card will feature nine fights on ESPN at 6 p.m. ET before the five-fight PPV main card commences at 10 p.m. ET. on ESPN+.

If you are new to this piece, or this sport, note that in addition to moneylines and over/unders, there are numerous ways to bet on an MMA fight — including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.

As a result, after examining all of the betting options, your typical UFC card can offer a substantial amount of actionable value.

UFC 263 Promos: Win $200 on a punch, more!

Bet $20, Win $200 if Adesanya lands a punch!

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And more …

UFC 263 Moneyline Projections and Picks

Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projection for each of Saturday’s 14 bouts. In the next section, you’ll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside of the distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.

UFC 263 Prop Projections and Picks

In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission — which enables us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter win inside of the distance.


UFC 263 Picks and Analysis

Odds as of Saturday and via FanDuel

Early Prelims

  • ESPN
  • 6 p.m. ET

Heavyweight fight: Carlos Felipe vs. Jake Collier

Odds
Felipe odds -178
Collier odds +144
Over/Under 2.5 rounds -152/+120

Crowdsourced Projections: Felipe (61%)

Collier looked like he may not be long for the UFC in his heavyweight debut last year, losing quickly to a legitimate heavyweight prospect in Tom Aspinall.

But the former middleweight secured his first win in more than three years last December and looked quite spry for the division while racking up 123 significant strikes against an equally bloated Gian Villante.

Felipe has the ability to match Collier on volume, and I would give him the edge in cardio. Still, he doesn’t necessarily have the type of big knockout power for the division that should justify his status as a significant favorite.

I don’t see value on any side, total, or prop for this fight, so it’s an easy pass; but my initial read was Collier by decision, and I would typically lean to the underdog side in a heavyweight fight priced in this manner.

Bets: 

  • Pass

Lightweight fight: Fares Ziam vs. Luigi Vendramini

Odds
Ziam odds -120
Vendramini odds +102
Over/Under 1.5 rounds -192/+150

Crowdsourced Projections: Vendramini (54%)

Fighters who have a good showing on short notice against an established UFC veteran often go on to have strong runs in the promotion, and Vendramini’s debut at 170 pounds against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos fit firmly into that category.

“The Italian Stallion” displayed adept grappling skills before succumbing to a flying knee in the second round, and he returned as an improved fighter last October, back down at lightweight, scoring a quick knockout over Jessin Ayari.

Vicious. Relentless. Savage. 😳

Luigi Vendramini (-114) just got the UFC card started in a big way.

pic.twitter.com/VP8PgpTzch

— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) October 3, 2020

Vendramini is the stronger man in this matchup. He should have a big grappling edge against Ziam, who struggled to defend takedowns against inferior grapplers in Jamie Mullarkey (allowed 5-of-11 takedowns attempts) and Don Madge (3 of 12).

Ziam is the better technician at range, and he’s the much taller man (+5 inches). Still, there’s a strong possibility that he gets completely exposed on the mat by Vendramini, who is very aggressive and forced a 100% finish rate in his professional fights.

I projected Vendramini at 54%, and I would play his moneyline up to about -110. Furthermore, I projected his odds to win inside the distance at +165, and I would play that prop down to about +186.

Bets: 

  • Luigi Vendramini (+116, 1 unit) | Luigi Vendramini wins Inside the Distance (+210, 0.25u)

Featherweight fight: Chase Hooper vs. Steven Peterson

Odds
Hooper odds -110
Peterson odds -106
Over/Under 2.5 rounds -112/-112

Crowdsourced Projections: Peterson (60%)

Peterson was the only fighter to miss weight on Friday, coming in 2.5 pounds over the featherweight limit. This is his first time back in the octagon since September 2019.

Hooper has gone 2-1 since that time but pulled a win out of the jaws of defeat with his third-round submission against Peter Barrett last December. He had lost both rounds on two of the three judges’ scorecards and was two minutes away from receiving his second professional loss.

Unfortunately, I already bet Peterson before the weight miss, but I do think that he’s the right side in this fight. Hooper is a one-dimensional jiu-jitsu practitioner who may not even have the grappling advantage here.

His striking is still very raw, and his wrestling (7% takedown accuracy) is unlikely to ground most opponents. He’s content to pull guard when all else fails.

Peterson has never been submitted in 27 professional fights — and Hooper doesn’t seem likely to win minutes on the feet or to be able to take the fight to the ground (75% takedown defense for Peterson).

Peterson is very hittable — something which Hooper won’t take advantage of — and he figures to eat jabs himself for the duration of the fight.

Unless Peterson is totally shot from a poor weight cut, or if his body has failed him after an extended layoff and multiple injuries, I think this is his fight to lose.

But for the weight miss, I’d be adding on to my position — but I’m content to let it ride and would still recommend a half-unit play on Peterson up to -133.

Peterson by decision (projected +205, listed +200) and by KO/TKO (projected +320, listed +325) both align with my projections. Still, I don’t see enough value in either bet to make a play — and while Hooper has proven to be durable, he also reacts very poorly to strikes.

Bets: 

  • Steven Peterson (-120, Risk 1u)

Lightweight fight: Matt Frevola vs. Terrance McKinney

Odds
Frevola odds -220
McKinney odds +184
Over/Under 1.5 rounds -142/+112

Crowdsourced Projections: Frevola (69%)

McKinney is a late notice debutant, replacing Frank Camacho, and historically speaking, late-notice replacements win 36% of the time, while debutants win around 38% of the time against octagon veterans.

McKinney is an aggressive fighter who has never gone the distance in 13 professional fights, but it’s also difficult to get a read on his true skill level since 11 of those fights ended in the first round.

Frevola is the type of fighter who digs in with his cardio and eventually takes over against a typical opponent, so the longer this fight extends, the more it should play towards the favorite.

In fact, I would expect McKinney to try to empty the tank early after winning a fight last week in LFA.

I’m tempted to take the value on this fight to go the distance (projected +180, listed +130), but I don’t know enough about McKinney’s cardio late in a fight; he might fall completely off of a cliff once he tastes the third round.

Additionally, there’s value on Frevola to win by decision (projected +165, listed +235), but I’m hesitant to play that prop for the same reasons.

Conversely, McKinney by KO/TKO (projected +329, listed +325) doesn’t seem like a bad bet — it’s just not one that I’m capable of recommending based upon value.

For now, I’m going to wait for more books to open up their prop markets on this fight, but I’m leaning towards a pass here.

Bets: 

  • TBD

Women’s Bantamweight fight: Pannie Kianzad vs. Alexis Davis

Odds
Kianzad odds -215
Davis odds +180
Over/Under 2.5 rounds -400/+280

Crowdsourced Projections: Kianzad (67%)

Davis looked sharp after returning from an extended layoff in February, scoring a clean 30-27 decision over Sabina Mazo. She’ll look to make it two in a row with a win-over volume striker Pannie Kianzad, who will look to avoid stepping into Davis’ leg kicks and try to stuff her takedowns (83% takedown defense).

Davis has a knack for keeping fights close. She has a high fight IQ and knows how to finish off rounds.

If Davis can get this fight to the ground, she has a path to victory — but if Pannie can keep the fight standing, then she’ll likely work off of her jab and bust up Davis’ face for 15 minutes.

This likely plays out as a closer fight than the odds would suggest and seems like another fight on this card that I would expect to be 1-1 heading into Round 3.

As a result, the moneyline value would appear on Davis’ side, even though I think the line is about right.

There’s just about fair value on both fighters to win by decision (projected -132, listed -135 for Kianzad; projected +332, listed +325 for Davis) but I couldn’t recommend either play.

There is actionable value in this fight to go the distance (projected -401, listed -325), and I would use the over 2.5 rounds or distance prop (up to -350) as a parlay piece.

Bets: 

  • Use Over 2.5 rounds (up to -350) as a parlay piece

Check out our free UFC odds page, which automatically surfaces the best moneyline and round total odds for every fight.


Preliminary Card

  • ESPN
  • 8 p.m. ET

Featherweight fight: Movsar Evloev vs. Hakeem Dawodu

Odds
Evloev odds -250
Dawodu odds +198
Over/Under 2.5 rounds -235/+180

Crowdsourced Projections: Evloev (64%)

If you want additional analysis, including a full statistical breakdown for this fight, make sure to check out my full fight preview.

Dawodu certainly has the tools to win this fight. However, Evloev is just a more well-rounded fighter and has more ways to win minutes inside the cage.

Given his point-fighting nature, it’s difficult to justify Evloev as a significant favorite every time out (closed at least -200 in each UFC fight). He won as a -723 favorite in his last fight against Nik Lentz, but only by a split decision — that shouldn’t happen.

And Dawodu has the tools to keep this fight close.

I wouldn’t use Evloev as a parlay piece, but I show value on his decision prop (projected -122, listed -106) up to -110.

Furthermore, I show value on either the over or the fight to go the distance prop (projected -374, listed -244), and I would use either of those as a parlay piece up to -300.

Bets: 

  • Movsar Evoloev wins by Decision (+110, 0.5u)
  • Use Over 2.5 rounds (up to -325) as a parlay piece

Women’s Flyweight fight: Lauren Murphy vs. Joanne Calderwood

Odds
Murphy odds +116
Calderwood odds -136
Over/Under 2.5 rounds -430/+300

Crowdsourced Projections: Calderwood (61%)

If you want additional analysis, including a full statistical breakdown for this fight, make sure to check out my full fight preview.

Murphy has the size and strength advantages as a natural bantamweight since Calderwood used to compete at strawweight. She will try to impose her physicality on her faster and more technical opponent.

The fight probably swings on Calderwood’s takedown defense (58%) and her willingness to fight off of her back.

I liked the Calderwood side closer to a pick’em, but I cannot recommend a play at the current price.

And while I show slight value on Calderwood’s decision prop (projected +107, listed +114), there’s not enough value there to make a play. Furthermore, I think you may fall short to a weird split decision — on either side of this fight — where the judges get stuck choosing between striking volume for Calderwood and control time for Murphy for one or two rounds.

I think there’s value on the over and/or the fight to go the distance prop, which I projected at -390. I would include that as one leg of a small (half unit) parlay.

Bets: 

  • Use Over 2.5 rounds (up to -350) as a parlay piece

Light Heavyweight fight: Eryk Anders vs. Darren Stewart

Odds
Anders odds -158
Stewart odds +128
Over/Under 2.5 rounds -154/+120

Crowdsourced Projections: Anders (61%)

If you want additional analysis, including a full statistical breakdown for this fight, make sure to check out my full fight preview.

Stewart closed as a -190 favorite (implied 65.5%) for the first fight and has climbed as high +120 (implied 45.5%) for the rematch. On principle, it seems like he might be on the value side this time around — but I’m not sure if that’s the case.

Going into the first matchup, it appeared that Stewart might have the edge both in terms of grappling upside and striking volume.

However, Anders was actively pressuring Stewart and fighting much more aggressively after moving his camp to Fight Ready MMA. He finally looked to have made improvements to his overall game.

Considering that Stewart didn’t appear to have any of the advantages presupposed the first time around, I’m not surprised to see Anders come back as the favorite in this spot.

I project slight value on Anders to win this fight inside the distance (projected +178, listed +200). Still, because I projected Stewart as a large favorite (67%) in the first fight and bet him to win by decision (at +130), I’m hard-pressed to flip my opinion on this matchup completely.

I think there’s value on Anders to finish the fight (legally) this time — but I’m going to pass on this fight altogether, given the odds history of this matchup.

Bets: 

  • Pass

Lightweight fight: Drew Dober vs. Brad Riddell

Odds
Dober odds -150
Riddell odds +122
Over/Under 2.5 rounds -182/+142

Crowdsourced Projections: Dober (60%)

If you want additional analysis, including a full statistical breakdown for this fight, make sure to check out my full fight preview.

Riddell (+1.74 strike differential; 103% combined striking accuracy and defense) is a more efficient striker than Dober (+0.46; 94% combined accuracy and defense), but this fight seems likely to play out in a way that could be both very close and difficult to score.

I’m expecting to see a 15-minute war that contends for Fight of the Night and raises the stock of both lightweights in the eyes of fans.

I projected slight value on the over and/or fight goes the distance prop for this fight (projected -170, listed -150), and I considered making a play at current odds.

However, I also spotted some value on Riddell to win by decision (projected +235, listed +250), and I ended up debating between those two plays.

Although there’s less projected value on Riddell’s decision prop than betting the fight to go the distance, I do see Dober as the man who is much more likely to finish. I’m happy to take Riddell at a higher price (and with reduced risk) when he has a solid path to a volume-based decision on the feet.

I wouldn’t fault you for playing the over 2.5 rounds, or the fight goes to decision prop, but this sets up as a potential slugfest, and I don’t want too much exposure to this fight.

Bets: 

  • Brad Riddell wins by Decision (+250, 0.25u)

Main Card

  • ESPN PPV
  • 10 p.m. ET

Light Heavyweight fight: Paul Craig vs. Jamahal Hill

Odds
Craig odds +235
Hill odds -290
Over/Under 1.5 rounds -124/-102

Crowdsourced Projections: Hill (72%)

If you want additional analysis, including a full statistical breakdown for this fight, make sure to check out my full fight preview.

I show value on this fight to end inside the distance (projected -606, listed -304), Hill to win by KO/TKO (projected -157, listed -125), and Hill to win inside the distance (projected -184, listed -139.)

Alternatively, I considered betting on the under 1.5 rounds or on Hill to win in Round 1 (+210).

I ultimately landed on HIll’s inside the distance prop, which I would bet to -165; I don’t want to bet against the clock in this fight.

Bets: 

  • Jamahal Hill wins Inside the Distance (-140, 0.5u)

Welterweight Fight: Demian Maia vs. Belal Muhammad

Odds
Maia odds +184
Muhammad odds -230
Over/Under 2.5 rounds -168/+132

Crowdsourced Projections: Muhammad (70%)

If you want additional analysis, including a full statistical breakdown for this fight, make sure to check out my full fight preview.

If Maia can’t find a way to get this fight to the mat, he’s going to be in trouble. And even if Maia survives on the feet, Belal should rack up enough volume to decisively pull away on the scorecards. Moreover, if Maia gets this fight to the ground, then Belal is likely a competent enough jiu-jitsu player to survive until the end of the round.

As a result, Belal is the likely winner, but we still haven’t seen him against this level of a grappler.

I don’t see any value regarding the moneyline or total for this fight. I show slight value on Maia’s submission prop (projected +341, listed +400), but not enough value to make it a play — particularly since I think Belal can survive on his back.

Bets: 

  • Pass

Welterweight fight: Leon Edwards vs. Nate Diaz

Odds
Edwards odds -590
Diaz odds +410
Over/Under 4.5 rounds -108/-118

Crowdsourced Projections: Edwards (83%)

If you want additional analysis, including a full statistical breakdown for this fight, make sure to check out my full fight preview.

Even though this isn’t a title fight, this is still a five-round bout.

In addition to his cardio, Diaz has displayed legendary durability during his remarkable UFC run.

All those memorable scraps bring many fans — particularly the type of fans who will throw some money on you as a 4-1 underdog. I’ll never talk you off of any big underdog in any fight, but I think Diaz is fairly obviously the “public dog of the week.”

I show value both in the fight to go the distance and on Edwards to win by decision.

You could play the over 4.5 or bet the fight to go the distance at plus money compared to my projection at 53%, or -113. However, I prefer the value on Edwards to win by decision (projected +115) down to +130.

Bets: 

  • Leon Edwards wins by Decision (+160, 0.5u)

Flyweight fight: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno

Odds
Figueiredo odds -210
Moreno odds +176
Over/Under 3.5 rounds -108/-118

Crowdsourced Projections: Figueiredo (65%)

If you want additional analysis, including a full statistical breakdown for this fight, make sure to check out the full fight preview from my colleague Erich Richter.

Figueiredo is an outlier at 125 pounds, looking more like a lightweight at fight time — but cutting all of that weight caused him to spend the night in the hospital before the first fight. He seemed to have a difficult weight cut yet again and was the last fighter on the scales on Friday — but he did meet the flyweight limit.

Figgy makes weight with 40 seconds to spare. Wow. 125.0.

— Ariel Helwani (@arielhelwani) June 11, 2021


Moreno is the type of fighter who weaponizes his cardio and durability. I think there might be a solid live betting opportunity on Moreno, given Figueiredo’s propensity to fade late in fights.

He’s the more skilled man in all aspects of MMA and the stronger man too, but that weight cut takes a lot out of him, and “Deus de Guerra” typically searches for the early kill, which can leave him gassed in the later rounds.

If he has more respect for Moreno’s durability, relative to their first fight, perhaps Figueiredo comes out more measured to save himself for 25 minutes of action – but changing his fighting style may ultimately be to his detriment since Moreno is capable of winning on pure volume (only trailed 132-137 on significant strikes in their first fight)

I see slight value on Figueiredo to win by decision (projected +292, listed +340), and I would sprinkle that at +300 or better. Still, I’m mostly looking to get plus money on both sides and buy Moreno live after Round 1 or Round 2 around the same price.

Bets: 

  • Deiveson Figueiredo wins by Decision (+300, 0.25u)
  • Live Bet Brandon Moreno after Round 1 and/or Round 2

Middleweight fight: Israel Adesanya vs. Marvin Vettori

Odds
Adesanya odds -255
Vettori odds +210
Over/Under 3.5 rounds -174/+136

Crowdsourced Projections: Adesanya (61%)

If you want additional analysis, including a full statistical breakdown for this fight, make sure to check out my full fight preview.

projected Marvin Vettori as a 39% underdog, and I think there’s value on his moneyline down to about +175, at just more than a 2.5% betting edge.

Furthermore, I projected his decision prop at +293, and I think there’s value on Vettori to win by decision at +345 or better.

He has the correct style to upend Adesanya — with the ability to throw more volume on the feet and to keep the champion on his back if he’s able to use his wrestling effectively.

However, Vettori is also a bullheaded fighter who pressures forward with wanton disregard for his own safety. As a result, there’s a strong probability that Adesanya intercepts him with a big counter at some point, particularly late if Vettori is tiring from consistent early wrestling.

That being said, Vettori has made the more significant improvements as a fighter since the first matchup between this pair and considering that you’re getting a better price than the first matchup (+200) to back the Italian, I think he’s absolutely the value side.

Bets: 

  • Marvin Vettori (+225, 1u)
  • Marvin Vettori wins by Decision (+350, 0.25u)

Zerillo’s UFC 263 Betting Card

Distance or Decision Props and Totals

  • Movsar Evloev wins by Decision (+100, 0.5 units)
  • Brad Riddell wins by Decision (+250, 0.25u)
  • Leon Edwards wins by Decision (+160, 0.5u)
  • Deiveson Figueiredo wins by Decision (+300, 0.25u)
  • Marvin Vettori wins by Decision (+350, 0.25u)

Inside the Distance Props

  • Luigi Vendramini wins Inside the Distance (+210, 0.25u)
  • Jamahal Hill wins Inside the Distance (-140, 0.5u)

Moneylines

  • Luigi Vendramini (+105, 1u)
  • Steven Peterson (-120, Risk 1u)
  • Marvin Vettori (+225, 1u)

Parlays

  • Three-Leg Parlay (+131, 0.5u)
    • Davis vs. Kianzad, Over 2.5 Rounds (-350)
    • Dawodu vs. Evloev, Over 2.5 Rounds (-255)
    • Calderwood vs. Murphy, Over 2.5 Rounds (-350)

Live Betting Notes

  • Live Bet Brandon Moreno after Round 1 and/or Round 2

Don’t forget to follow my picks in the Action Network App.

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