Lauren Murphy vs. Joanne Calderwood UFC 263 Odds, Pick & Prediction: How to Bet Pricey Undercard Total (Saturday, June 12)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC fighter Joanne Calderwood of Scotland.
- Two of the top fighters in the women's flyweight division, Lauren Murphy and Joanne Calderwood, go face off at UFC 263.
- Murphy hasn't lost since 2018, but Calderwood enters the matchup as the slight favorite (-145 odds).
- Sean Zerillo breaks down where he's seeing value in this prelim fight.
Lauren Murphy vs. Joanne Calderwood Odds
A future flyweight title challenger could emerge from this undercard scrap between No. 3 contender Lauren Murphy and No. 6 ranked Joanne Calderwood.
Murphy, an Alaska FC product and former Invicta champion enters on a four-fight winning streak and is experiencing her first sustained run of success in the Octagon. At the same time, the Scottish Calderwood has traded wins and losses against top competition in her past four bouts, amidst a 4-2 record after returning to Flyweight in 2018.
This is an interesting clash of size and styles in the 125-pound division and should make a mark as a major turning point in the career of one of these two fighters.
Below I preview the matchup and odds for Saturday’s fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate.
Tale of the Tape
|Avg. Fight Time||14:01||11:07|
|Weight (pounds)||125 lbs.||125 lbs.|
|Date of birth||7/27/83||12/23/85|
|Sig Strikes Per Min||3.80||6.59|
|SS Absorbed Per Min||3.82||4.40|
|Take Down Avg||1.18||1.80|
Murphy has the size and strength advantage as a natural bantamweight since Calderwood used to compete at strawweight. She will try to impose her physicality on her faster and more technical opponent.
Calderwood throws a barrage of volume, as you can tell from the striking stats above, and in divisions where finish rates are relatively low, volume tends to rule the scorecards.
While Murphy has the reach advantage, Calderwood will try to frustrate her with movement and kicks up the middle, and she’s effective at wearing down her opponents with elbows and body shots off of clinch breaks. I don’t see Murphy having as much success with more of a straightforward boxing attack (-0.02 to +2.19 in significant strike differential), but she will carry more power.
The fight probably swings on Calderwood’s takedown defense (58%) and her willingness to fight off of her back.
Murphy has not landed more than two takedowns in a UFC fight, but Calderwood has also shown a willingness to accept guard in certain spots – and I’d be worried that she may let at least one round slip away on control time.
Murphy vs. Calderwood Pick
I liked the Calderwood side closer to a pick’em, but I cannot recommend a play at the current price.
And while I show slight value on Calderwood’s decision prop (projected +107, listed +114), there’s not enough value there to make a play. Furthermore, I think you may fall short to a weird split decision – on either side of this fight – where the judges get stuck choosing between striking volume for Calderwood and control time for Murphy for one or two rounds.
I think there’s value on the over and/or the fight to go the distance prop, which I projected at -390. I would include that as one leg of a small (half unit) parlay.
The Pick: Use over 2.5 rounds (up to -350) as a Parlay Piece