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UFC 283 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Mounir Lazzez vs. Gabriel Bonfim: Add This Play to Your Round Robin (Saturday, January 21)

UFC 283 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Mounir Lazzez vs. Gabriel Bonfim: Add This Play to Your Round Robin (Saturday, January 21) article feature image
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Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC welterweight Mounir Lazzez of Tunisia

  • Contender Series vet Gabriel Bonfim enters the UFC 283 preliminary card as a favorite.
  • The UFC newcomer, whose brother also fights at UFC 283, meets welterweight Mounir Lazzez.
  • Below, Sean Zerillo shares one round-robin piece he's considering for the fight.

Mounir Lazzez vs. Gabriel Bonfim Odds

Lazzez Odds
+140
Bonfim Odds
-165
Over/Under
 2.5 (+120 / -150)
Venue
Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro
Time
7:40 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN+
Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings.

Mounir Lazzez takes on undefeated Contender Series vet Gabriel Bonfim on the UFC 283 preliminary card.

Lazzez hopes his 2023 campaign will be busier than years past, but he faces a stiff test in Bonfim, who’s a modest favorite.

Let’s look at the matchup.

Tale of the Tape

Lazzez Bonfim
Record 13-0 11-2
Avg. Fight Time 4:13 10:52
Height 6’1″ 6’1″
Weight (pounds) 170 lbs. 170 lbs.
Reach (inches) 72″ 76″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Date of birth 8/20/1997 11/16/1987
Sig Strikes Per Min 6.17 7.40
SS Accuracy 38% 54%
SS Absorbed Per Min 4.74 5.28
SS Defense 72% 53%
Take Down Avg 3.56 1.84
TD Acc 100% 66%
TD Def 0% 71%
Submission Avg 3.6 0.0

The younger Bonfim – Gabriel – seemingly has the higher ceiling between the two debutant brothers.

He enters Saturday with an undefeated record and a 100% finish rate.

ADD A #DWCS VON FLUE CHOKE TO THE RECORD OF GABRIEL BONFIM pic.twitter.com/AC4E37enDm

— Spinnin Backfist (@SpinninBackfist) September 7, 2022

Bonfim’s grappling upside is seemingly baked into the line, and I don’t recommend a bet on either side of this fight.

His hands are underrated, and I think the striking will be competitive, but I expect Lazzez to land more volume at kickboxing range. His four-inch reach advantage should prove the difference.

Lazzez has shown solid first-level takedown defense too, but one successful takedown may be enough for Bonfim to finish the fight. And while Bonfim has shown questionable cardio, I’m not sold on Lazzez’s stamina either.

Lazzez vs. Bonfim Pick

Bonfim by submission (projected +198, listed +220 at BetRivers) is a decent round-robin piece.

Otherwise, I’m happy to simply watch this one.

The Pick: Pass

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