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UFC 283 Parlay Bets: ‘Robocop’ Key to This 20-1 Parlay of All Stoppages

UFC 283 Parlay Bets: ‘Robocop’ Key to This 20-1 Parlay of All Stoppages article feature image

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. UFC middleweight Gregory Rodrigues of Brazil

  • With 15 fights on Saturday's UFC 283 card, prop betting enthusiasts have an array of options for parlay legs.
  • John LanFranca has two plays for the PPV event, including a traditional parlay and a same game parlay.
  • Check out his bets, which pay 20-1 and 4-1, and his analysis for each one below.

For many MMA fans, fight night wouldn't be complete without a UFC prop bets to sweat.

If you want to dabble in the prop betting world for tonight's UFC 283 pay-per-view event in Rio de Janeiro (6 p.m. ET on ESPN+), we've got a few options.

Check out a traditional UFC 283 parlay with a nearly 20-1 payoff, as well as a same game parlay (SGP) for the night's championship co-headliner that pays nearly 4-1.

Both options are available via DraftKings., but check your local book to see what other options for UFC 283 parlays are available.

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UFC 283 Parlay: +1958

This card features a number of athletes who possess fight-ending skills and can close the show in the blink of an eye. If you enjoy bouts with a low likelihood of reaching the scorecards (don’t we all), this is the pay-per-view for you.

As I have dissected the card, there are three spots that are being offered at an especially good price. All three of these fighters have a clear path to getting the stoppage in the manner they are most skilled – and parlaying them together can pay out a juicy haul nearing 20-to-1.

Thiago Moises welcomes UFC newcomer Melquizael Costa to the UFC as part of the UFC 283 prelims. There is an argument to be made that this line is actually a little bit too wide, considering how well-rounded a prospect Costa has shown to be. With that said, I believe Moises recently got back to fighting to his strengths.

The very first time Christos Giagos overcommitted on a strike in their recent bout, Moises was deep in a single-leg takedown that eventually led to the submission finish. With Costa doing his best work in boxing range – and without having the reach advantage to utilize – I foresee a very similar approach from Moises at UFC 283. Moises has a world-class varied submission attack that is the most likely way we see this fight end.

Bruno Ferreira, meanwhile, is coming off an impressive first-round win on the Contender Series that displayed his fight-altering explosiveness. However, taking on Gregory Rodrigues this soon in his career is a giant leap forward in competition.

Gregory Rodrigues pulls off one of the most incredible comebacks you will ever see at #UFCVegas60!


— (@MMAFighting) September 18, 2022

Ferreira has never been in the octagon with a fighter even remotely as dangerous as Rodrigues. Rodrigues has shown the ability to fight through adversity against much more proven fighters, all the while carrying his knockout power past Round 1. Ferreira hasn’t had a single fight last longer than six minutes and eight seconds. Whether it’s an early barrage from Rodrigues or a patient gameplan that tests the youngster's cardio, I expect the firepower to eventually overwhelm Ferreira, resulting in a TKO win for "Robocop."

Finally, what will it take to change the narrative regarding Glover Teixeira? It's been nearly six years since he was finished by strikes. Jiri Prochazka is a more dangerous striker than Jamahal Hill, yet he wasn’t able to put away the Brazilian legend with his striking attack.

Teixeira is going to find a way to get inside and take this fight where he wants it to go. Hill’s career 65% takedown defense will not be enough to prevent a grappler as skilled as Teixeira from putting him in perilous positions. Hill has been put on his back by much less proficient grapplers, and it won’t be nearly as easy getting back to his feet this time around.

Teixeira has such a clear path to a submission with the implementation of his gameplan, I am shocked we are getting a price of +250 for what I see as the most likely outcome of UFC 283’s main event.

Our UFC 283 parlay legs include, with a nearly 20-1 payoff:

  • Moises by submission +180
  • Rodrigues by KO/TKO +110
  • Teixeira by submission +250

UFC 283 Parlay Odds: +1958 (DraftKings)

UFC 283 Same Game Parlay: +390

When it comes to betting on the UFC, same-game parlays offer a unique way to correlate a fighter's path to victory. On Saturday night, flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo and interim titleholder Brandon Moreno will step into the octagon for the fourth time, so we have plenty of data to digest to extract value on this specific fight.

Figueiredo was clearly not himself in a UFC 263 submission loss to Moreno. The weight cut, along with a reported sickness, sapped the strength from the flyweight champion, and he fought at a much slower pace than in the other two bouts. I’m not advising to completely disregard the results of Moreno’s victory, but rather, recommending to take it with a grain of salt.

So what have we learned from the other matchups between these two elite flyweights? Most recently, Figueiredo looked to get the fight to the mat more often while attempting 11 takedowns in his UFC 270 decision victory. His success in this fight isn’t tied to getting Moreno down, but I do believe he will successfully make it happen at least once.

We go AGAIN! 🏆

Deiveson Figueiredo vs Brandon Moreno for a FOURTH time at #UFC283 tonight!!

— UFC Europe (@UFCEurope) January 21, 2023

Moreno is undoubtedly a durable workhorse. With that said, Figueiredo thrives by landing the bigger shots and creating moments that get the judges' attention. Figueiredo was able to score three knockdowns in their last fight, and I again expect him to land those big shots to counter Moreno’s higher output.

Speaking of output, I expect this fight to play out over several rounds due to the durability of both men. Outside of UFC 263, both fighters landed a minimum of 86 significant strikes in their other two matchups. If this fight enters the championship rounds, it is very likely each fighter will land at least 65 significant strikes once on Saturday night. If Figueiredo is able to match the output of Moreno, land one takedown and score one knockdown, it more than justifies his plus-money price.

Thus, a same-game parlay can get bettors to a near 4-to-1 price for a probable Figueiredo path to victory.

Here are the UFC 283 SGP legs:

  • Figueiredo 1+ takedown
  • Figueiredo 1+ knockdown
  • Figueiredo to land 65+ significant strikes
  • Moreno to land 65+ significant strikes
  • Figueiredo money line +105

UFC 283 SGP Odds: +390 (DraftKings)

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