Read our UFC 319 predictions for the Saturday, August 16 event live from the United Center in Chicago, Illinois. The preliminary card airs on ESPN+ starting at 6:00 p.m. ET, with the main card on ESPN+ PPV at 10:00 p.m. ET.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 12-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and identified their three favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC 319 Moneyline Projections
UFC 319 Prop Projections
UFC 319 Best Bets
Dione Barbosa vs. Karine Silva
John LanFranca, Action Contributor
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:45 p.m. ET
Oddsmakers are giving a good amount of respect to underdog Dione Barbosa, given that she accepted this fight on two weeks' notice.
This is actually a rematch from a regional scene fight these women had six years ago, in which Barbosa came out victorious. I don’t put that much stock in that result, given the improvements Karine Silva has made, but I am expecting a close affair here, regardless.
Oddly, Karine Silva carries a 0% takedown defense rate to her name. Silva may be the more physical of the two ladies, but she is just as likely to be taken down here by Barbosa as she is to land a takedown. When those exchanges happen and this bout inevitably goes to the ground, I also do not expect there to be a significant advantage for either on the mat.
There could be an abundance of 50/50 positions that make it unclear who is getting the upper hand, which, as we know, just leads to some eye-opening judges’ scorecards. If I am right to assume we see prolonged grappling exchanges, it is also fair to have concerns about Silva’s cardio.
In Silva’s most recent loss at the hands of Viviane Araujo, she was taken down three times in the 3rd round
There may be some value on Barbosa at +170, but I am going to look to the spread that DraftKings offers instead.
Barbosa should be able to make it competitive on the feet, avoid submissions on the mat and get this to a 3rd round at a very high clip. This fight is -260 to go over 2.5 rounds and I expect Barbosa to be the more effective fighter in that 3rd round. I like the price on her securing at least one round on all three scorecards.
The Pick: Dione Barbosa +3.5 -135 (DraftKings)
Michal Oleksiejczuk vs. Gerald Meerscahert III
Billy Ward, Staff Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:15 p.m. ET
The middleweight prelim bout between longtime veteran Gerald Meerschaert and Michal Oleksiejczuk is a "binary fight" in every sense of the word.
Michal Oleksiejczuk is a striker who likes to finish fights quickly. He's 8-7 in the UFC, with seven of those wins coming via first-round knockout, and a 1-4 record (with the win via split decision), win fights that go to the second round or longer.
Meerschaert is the opposite on both counts, with 11 of his 12 UFC wins coming via submission, and just three of those in the first round. On the other hand, when he loses, it tends to be in a hurry, with all four of his knockout losses coming in the first round.
Oleksiejczuk is also weak where his opponent is strong, with five of his seven UFC defeats coming via submission. While he's working to improve that by training full-time with the Fighting Nerds camp in Brazil, he still has a long way to go before closing that skill gap entirely.
Thus, there are two logical ways to bet this fight. The first is an Oleksijczuk first-round knockout, which is in the neighborhood of +210 around the industry.
My preferred method is Meerschaert by submission, which I was shocked to see as high as +450 odds at FanDuel — more than double the price of Meerschaert's +180 moneyline. Considering he hasn't won a fight via any other method since 2017 and his opponent's particular vulnerabilities, those numbers should be much closer together.
The Pick: Meerschaert Submission +450 (FanDuel)
Tim Elliott vs. Kai Asakura
Sean Zerillo, Senior Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:15 p.m. ET
I strongly anticipate a finish in the main card opener between Kai Asakura and Tim Elliott, in what amounts to a very binary striker vs. grappler matchup.
The average three-round flyweight bout ends inside the distance at a 54% clip. Still, I projected this bout closer to 67% for Saturday – even after averaging the implied betting line, and divisional baseline into my projected decision/knockout/submission splits – in this matchup – for either fighter.
Tim Elliott is 38 years old, coming off a near two-year layoff, in a division where the average age is 31, and fractional differences in speed have a more dramatic impact on fighter quality.
While Elliott is difficult to track down – due to his awkward movement – I'd expect Asakura to hurt him early – and potentially close the show quickly – in this fight. Asakura is seven years his junior, an inch taller, and carries both a three-inch reach advantage and significantly more power.
Still, he has shown a grappling vulnerability, and Elliott can take advantage on the mat – he's a proactive grappler (averages 5.9 takedown attempts per 5 minutes at distance), and could finish the fight via front choke (anaconda or brabo) if he can merely get Asakura into a scramble; never mind consolidating a takedown.
Bet the fight to end inside the distance or the Under 2.5 rounds, or consider structuring a violence ladder using the Under 1.5 (+215) as the first rung.
Additionally, consider betting Asakura by KO/TKO (projected +104, listed +180) or by Round 1 KO/TKO (+500) as opposed to his moneyline.
The Pick: Fight Ends Inside the Distance -106 (BetRivers) | Kai Asakura wins by Round 1 KO/TKO +500 (BetRivers)
