After a six-week hiatus, the UFC is back! The first event of the Paramount era is UFC 324, which is headlined by an interim lightweight title fight between fan favorites Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett.
The 13-fight card starts at 5:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+, with the main card beginning at its new time of 9:00 p.m. ET.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC 323 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings except where otherwise noted. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC 324 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Paddy Pimblett (-230) vs. Justin Gaethje (+190)
Due to the long break between events, we've had lines up for most of this card — but especially the marquee fights at the top — for quite some time. A function of that is that making bets on Monday doesn't really make them "early" this week, since bettors have had a chance to shape them already.
That's especially notable in the main event, where Paddy Pimblett opened in the range of -185, but has since been bet down to -230. The 31-year-old Pimblett has looked better and better in every fight, and the market is banking on him continuing to improve against 37-year-old Justin Gaethje.
The former interim champion Gaethje is getting another crack at the interim title and has only ever lost to champion-level opponents, with all five of his losses coming against men who've at least won an interim title. That makes this a fairly big step up for Pimblett, whose best win to date was likely his third-round finish of Michael Chandler last year. Of course, that's the same Michael Chandler who took Gaethje to a decision a few years ago, albeit an early version.
All things considered, this moneyline is about right, and I don't expect big movement in either direction. If I were going to make an early bet, I'd probably take Pimblett by finish — all five of Gaethje's losses were inside the distance — at -125, but there's no reason to force it now.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Alexander Hernandez (-162) vs. Michael Johnson (+136)
Alexander Hernandez and Michael Johnson are both veteran lightweights capable of beating or losing to almost anyone on the roster. As such, my early read on the fight is that either of them at plus-money is a decent bet, a sentiment that the market seems to agree with.
Hernandez opened as around a -200 favorite, and despite nearly three-quarters of Tapology picks going his way, his line has fallen nearly 40 cents to -162. Or, to frame that the other way, Johnson has gone from around +165 to his current lines. Movement contrary to public picks tends to be a solid "sharp signal" about where the big bets are coming in, and I wouldn't be surprised if the line moves another 20 cents or so.
For that reason, I'm jumping on "The Menace" now, with the +136 line at DraftKings the best currently available.
Verdict: Johnson Undervalued
Josh Hokit (-245) vs. Denzel Freeman (+200)
I went back and forth on whether to include this pick/make this bet early, as I think there's probably a much sharper way to play this fight between two heavyweight wrestlers.
The favorite is Josh Hokit, a former All-American who went on to play for the 49ers' practice squad (not a great team to sign with as a fullback) before making the transition to MMA. He's since gone 7-0 with seven finishes, including one in the UFC and one on the Contender Series.
Denzel Freeman was a nationally-ranked Greco-Roman wrestler who was once signed to the WWE,and now trains Olympic hopefuls in Colorado outside of his fighting career. He won an extremely low-paced decision in his UFC debut, but holds stoppages against former DWCS competitors Steven Asplund and Hugo Cunha.
The likeliest outcome is that Hokit steamrolls Freeman early, with his folkstyle wrestling and general athleticism allowing him to put Freeman on his back. However, Freeman seems much more capable of fighting extended fights, both due to his more measured style and his training base in Colorado. If he can "wall and stall" Hokit early, I wouldn't be surprised if Hokit gasses out fairly quickly.
For that reason, the best way to play this is probably Freeman live, should he be able to weather (or deter) an early storm, but I wouldn't fault anyone for taking a pre-fight look since the line has tightened somewhat in the last week.
Verdict: Freeman Undervalued
