Cody Durden vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel Odds
| Durden Odds | +114 |
| Tumendemberel Odds | -135 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-238/+180) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 326 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 326 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Cody Durden vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel prediction for UFC 326 on Saturday, March 7, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
It's pretty clear what the UFC matchmakers had in mind when making this matchup, which pits 9-1 prospect Nyamjargal Tumendemberel against a 34-year-old Cody Durden, who has lost his last three contests. However, the ATT-trained Durden remains a tough out for anyone at flyweight, and the betting odds suggest this won't be a walk in the park for the young Mongolian. Can Durden save his job and turn away his young opponent, or is "Art of Knockout" the real deal? We'll find out on Saturday.
Here's my Durden vs. Tumendemberel pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Durden | Tumendemberel | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 17-9-1 | 9-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:24 | 8:29 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 67" | 71" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 3/29/1991 | 3/22/1988 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.66 | 3.18 |
| SS Accuracy | 44% | 39% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.47 | 3.33 |
| SS Defense | 50% | 52% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.99 | 3.10 |
| TD Acc | 47% | 38% |
| TD Def | 75% | 54% |
| Submission Avg | 0.7 | 2.6 |
Cody Durden has been a staple of the flyweight division since his debut in August of 2020, fighting 14 times in the five and a half years since his first trip to the Octagon. He's fought everyone from now-champion Joshua Van to a handful of fighters since cut from the promotion, serving as a firm line between potential contenders and fighters who aren't quite UFC level.
His background is in wrestling, and he reportedly had some college scholarship opportunities but turned them down in order to pursue MMA. He fights with what is now a fairly standard boxer/wrestler style, coming forward with hard strikes while relying on his grappling ability to deter opponents from taking him down. Earlier in his career, he relied more on offensive wrestling, but he's averaged just one takedown per fight over his last six contests.
That was probably a wise shift, given that his fatal flaw is his submission defense. Four of his seven UFC losses have come via submission, though a couple of those were more "club and sub" than Durden being outright beaten in the grappling.
My takeaway from the tape I watched on Durden isn't that he's a bad submission grappler necessarily. Rather, he struggles to transition from wrestling to submission grappling. Anyone who trains jiu-jitsu knows the feeling of an opponent throwing in a quick submission while you're still scrambling for top position, and that effect is amplified by the addition of strikes in MMA.
That also makes for an interesting matchup with Tumandemberel, who, despite his nickname "The Art of Knockout," has picked up six submissions in his nine career wins. Once he starts grappling, he doesn't really disguise the fact that he's hunting submissions, often at the cost of position or opportunities for damage. On the feet he's violent and aggressive, but mostly draws a clear line between striking and grappling.
That has cost him in the past, giving away rounds that he probably should've won by ending up on bottom position. His only career loss was a split decision against Carlos Hernandez, in which Tumendemberel likely lost a round by going for an armbar from the top and finishing said round on his back. I still would've scored the fight for him myself, but it didn't need to be that close.
However, he's a capable grappler and it usually works out in his favor, at least against the level of competition he's faced so far. According to the broadcast team during his UFC debut, Tumendemberel competed at the national level in Judo, and also trained in "Mongolian Sambo" as a youth. As such, his best takedowns are typically from close range, which should work in his favor against Durden.
Tumendemberel has a four-inch reach edge in this matchup, which means Durden will need to pressure forward in order to find his chin. That gives him very little margin for error, as pressing in too aggressively opens him up to clinch takedowns from the Mongolian, while waiting too far back leaves him vulnerable to being hit. That was less of a concern early in his career, but Durden has been finished four times in his last six fights, with just one win in that period.
Durden vs. Tumendemberel Pick, Prediction
With this line tightening slightly throughout the week, I wouldn't have a problem with betting on Tumendemberel straight up. However, I believe there's a better way.
Tumendemberel is -165 on the "Finish Only" line at DraftKings, which isn't a huge difference from his moneyline, but comes with the added bonus of the bet being refunded if the fight goes to a decision. Given the Mongolian's tendency to give away rounds in pursuit of a finish, this is an extremely valuable "insurance policy" of sorts.
If you want to take a bit of a bigger swing, I'm also interested in his submission prop at +400 via FanDuel, but I'm not betting it myself unless we can get a bigger price.
Billy's Picks: Tumendemberel Finish Only -165 (DraftKings)
