Luke Fernandez vs. Rodolfo Bellato Odds
| Fernandez Odds | -230 |
| Bellato Odds | +190 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-135/+105) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 5:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 326 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 326 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Luke Fernandez vs. Rodolfo Bellato prediction for UFC 326 on Saturday, March 7, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
UFC 326 could open with fireworks, when Luke Fernandez makes his main roster debut against the volatile Rodolfo Bellato. Fernandez is an undefeated prospect coming off an impressive 15 second knockout victory in his singular appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series. Fernandez may not be considered a knockout artist at this point, but there are multiple ways for him to pay off his price tag as a substantial favorite; however, if his debut is spoiled, it’s likely such a result will translate to his first loss coming by way of knockout.
Here's my Fernandez vs. Bellato pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Fernandez | Bellato | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-0 | 12-3-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 0:15 | 10:26 |
| Height | 6'1" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 205 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 76" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 6/29/1995 | 2/5/1996 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 32 | 5.13 |
| SS Accuracy | 100% | 59% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 0 | 5.86 |
| SS Defense | 100% | 46% |
| Take Down Avg | 0 | 1.44 |
| TD Acc | NA | 35% |
| TD Def | NA | 94% |
| Submission Avg | 0 | 0.2 |
Luke Fernandez took his time within CFFC working on his craft before becoming the organization’s light heavyweight champion. While his list of opponents have not been familiar names within the MMA community, he dominated inferior opponents and showcased a fairly well-rounded skillset. Along the way up the ranks, he also nabbed two grappling victories against UFC veterans Phil Hawes and Erik Anders – both of whom have won multiple UFC bouts with a grappling-centric gameplan.
Fernandez is a physical fighter that will test the grappling chops of current UFC light heavyweight roster. He brings a powerful and versatile wrestling style, that can present issues for the likes of lesser athletes within the division he is entering. His opponent, Rodolfo Bellato, is a solid grappler in his own right. That grappling could cancel out, and should lead to some extended exchanges on the feet if the fight is prolonged at all.
Bellato boasts a 94% takedown defense thus far in his short UFC tenure, so I expect to get more answers about each of these fighters’ futures depending on how this fight plays out. If Bellato can keep this fight standing, I believe he will have the overall striking advantage, although that comes with one large caveat – his questionable durability. Fernandez has shown he is willing to unleash his 1-2 with reckless abandon, and has good timing with the limited striking tools he possesses.
Bellato’s lack of durability seemed to be a major concern through five UFC appearances, but his result against the highly touted Navajo Stirling lends itself to the idea that his chin may not be as weak as many analysts perceived. Bellato lost the first two rounds, but his chin held up and he actually turned up the output in round three, pushing Stirling in the third frame and winning it on one of the judges’ scorecards.
That outcome is worth noting moving forward, but it also may have presented a good betting opportunity for us heading into Saturday’s card. Oddsmakers list this fight to end within the distance at -380, implying a 79% chance the judges will not be needed here. However, by targeting the knockout specifically, we can play a much more palatable price.
If Fernandez has progressed his skills and feels comfortable striking with Bellato, it is very likely one man will land a shot that puts the other away. If Fernandez is able to find a dominant position versus Bellato by dragging him to the mat, the fight could be stopped as Fernandez rains down a consistent barrage of ground and pound. In either scenario, the knockout is much more likely in my estimation than a submission finish.
Fernandez has yet to win a MMA fight by submission, and Bellato has never been submitted in his professional career. Additionally, there are still some unanswered questions about the competition Fernandez has faced leading up to this bout, as it is evident Bellato has squared off with the tougher fighters and gained valuable experience, albeit with mixed results.
Fernandez vs. Bellato Pick, Prediction
Both Fernandez and Bellato love to load up with their right hand and neither lacks the confidence that it will be their shot that makes quick work of their opponent.
It seems likely one of two outcomes comes to fruition – either Bellato’s chin simply is too weak for powerful light heavyweights or Fernandez’s chin has just not been tested up to this point. A minor car crash to open the early prelims will result in a knockout one way or another.
John's Pick: Fight ends by KO -180 (FanDuel)
