Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes Odds
| Volkanovski Odds | -148 |
| Lopes Odds | +124 |
| Over/Under | 4.5 (-105/-125) |
| Location | Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney, Australia |
| Bout Time | 11:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 325 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 325 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes prediction for UFC 325 on Saturday, January 31, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
On Saturday, the UFC returns to the Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia, for a 13-fight card, featuring a featherweight title bout and rematch between two-time champion Alexander Volkanovski (No. 5 ranked pound-for-pound) and No. 2-ranked contender Diego Lopes.
Volkanovski defeated Lopes at UFC 314 via unanimous decision. He'll seek his sixth career title defense on Saturday, after defending the Featherweight belt five times from 2019 to 2023.
Lopes rebounded from the title fight loss to Volkanovski by defeating Jean Silva via spinning elbow last September. The promotion awarded him a rematch, rather than opting for one of Movsar Evloev (9-0 in UFC, 19-0 career) or Lerone Murphy (9-0-1 in UFC, 17-0-1 career) instead.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC 325 Main Event on Saturday and use those factors to bet on these featherweights. They're expected to make their cage walks at approximately 11:15 p.m. ET on Saturday night.
Here's my Volaknovski vs. Lopes pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Volkanovski | Lopes | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 27-4 | 27-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 16:21 | 10:31 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 9/29/1988 | 12/30/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 6.18 | 4.10 |
| SS Accuracy | 56% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.36 | 4.72 |
| SS Defense | 58% | 47% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.67 | 0.79 |
| TD Acc | 34% | 55% |
| TD Def | 70% | 67% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 1.7 |
As stated, I previewed this bout before UFC 314, when I picked Volkanovski as the value side of the fight, and most of the analysis from that preview still rings true ahead of the rematch; however, there are some things I would like to retract or modify.
Diego Lopes remains the taller and longer fighter (5" taller, 1" reach advantage), the more powerful athlete, the younger man, and the likelier of the pair to win the fight violently in the early stages. He is an extremely dangerous opponent, and although Volkanovski is now somewhat removed from his knockout losses to Makhachev and Topuria, I still have reservations about his durability and ability to recover. Even before those finish losses, Volkanovski had been wobbled or hurt from strikes by several opponents, but always managed to recover.
Moreover, Lopes knocked him down near the end of Round 2 in the first fight and showed that he has the power to stun Volkanovski. Still, after taking the extra time (14 months) to recover before the first fight – and an additional nine months before the rematch- my confidence grows in his ability to withstand those power shots.
Volkanovski remains the much better minute winner and technical striker in this matchup. And don't forget he had nearly cleaned out the Featherweight division –with overwhelmingly dominant performances against any relevant contenders– before Topuria came along. Volkanovski isn't merely a former champion; he's an all-time great who lost to the two best pound-for-pound fighters in the sport – and dominated this same opponent within the past calendar year.
He still can overwhelm opponents' decision-making at striking range with feints and footwork, while nearly tripling Lopes's volume at range (142-59), aligning with their respective career averages (+2.3 and -1.4 differential per minute, respectively).
Still, I didn't find his striking defense (58% career; 68% in the first fight) to be as sharp as the data suggests; I felt that Volkanovski looked a touch slower than he used to, and was unable to get his chin out of the way of counters as readily as he used to be; his head lingered in the pocket far too often after pressing forward.
Volkanovski has promised a more aggressive version of himself in the rematch, too. His second fight with Max Holloway was the closest of their trilogy, and he lost the rematch with Makhachev; as he nears the end of his career, Volkanovski wants to put a stamp on his legacy beyond his elite minute-winning abilities.
Lopes, similarly, shouldn't be content to fight another outside kickboxing match for 25 minutes, while having to counter-grapple and keep Volkanovski from gaining top position.
Lopes remains the far more dangerous offensive grappler. Still, I noted that Volkanovski (80% vs. 47% control rate) would be the likelier ot the pair to hold top position, particularly because Lopes is happy to hunt for submissions off of his back. Volkanovski landed some vicious ground and pound during the minute of top position he was able to secure.
Still, I came away more impressed with Lopes' cardio, durability, and sustainability after that fight, and I'd expect him to look to create more chaos in the rematch. He is a fast starter, with 15 of 17 wins in the opening round – but his cardio has held up better than I expected it to in the championship rounds, given his general temperament and size for the division.
It's difficult to imagine the crowd playing a huge part in determining the winner of this specific matchup. Still, it's also worth noting that the last fight took place in Miami – a greater travel burden for Volkanovski – while he does get home cooking in the rematch.
Volkanovski vs. Lopes Pick, Prediction
I projected Alexander Volkanovski as a -110 favorite for his rematch with Diego Lopes, after setting him as a -168 favorite in the first fight. Volkanovski is far more public in my data sample (picked 34% vs. 43% implied) than he was the first time around, and despite Volkanovski having dominated that fight, the line for the rematch has continued to tip toward the underdog.
It is worth noting, however, that Volkanovski got to his current price point before the first fight on Thursday night, before steaming toward -150 at close. As a result, you can wait until closer to fight time for the best price on the underdog, Lopes.
I would also note the line adjustment for inside the distance odds, down from -145 in the first fight to -130 for the rematch; my projection also moved from -135 to -117.
The line movement against Volkanovski seems suspicious, but it aligns with my model expectations, given the data I incorporate.
You could take a small pre-fight position on Lopes and look to shoot at Volkanovski live after the first five to ten minutes. I recommended a live bet after Rounds 1 or 2 in the first matchup, and would follow a similar game plan for the rematch, especially if you take Lopes pre-fight.
I'm no longer interested in any late-round stabs for Volkanovski, as Lopes showed his gas tank is better than we suspected.
I do think a finish is likelier to occur early, if at all, and am intrigued by Under 1.5 (+335), or Under 2.5 (+200) at bigger plus money; these would be smaller stabs if anything, but the odds also have not improved relative to the first fight either.
Ultimately, while my heart says to run back Volkanovski again, in the same matchup he dominated, at the same price point, my gut – and the model – say that the line is oddly suspicious. I can't shake the image of Volkanovski's relative defensive recklessness in pocket exchanges from the first fight.
Sean's Picks: Diego Lopes (+120 or better small; wait until closer to fight time for best price) | Alexander Volkanovski Live Anytime after Round 1 (best price likely after Round 2)Â Â
