UFC Fight Night Odds, Pick & Prediction for Featured Prelim: How to Bet Phil Hawes vs. Kyle Daukaus (Saturday, May 8)
Chris Unger/DWCS LLC. Pictured: UFC fighter Kyle Daukaus.
- Saturday's featured UFC Fight Night prelim will pit Phil Hawes and Kyle Daukaus.
- Oddsmakers expect this fight to be close with Daukaus as a small favorite.
- Erich Richter previews the fight, including the pick with betting value.
Hawes vs. Daukaus Odds
Perhaps the most exciting fight on this weekend’s UFC prelims features knockout artist Phil “Megatron” Hawes and Kyle Daukaus. Daukaus will be Hawes’ most difficult challenge to date, featuring crisp striking and excellent takedown defense.
Hawes’ most likely win condition is an early finish — five of Hawes’ last six fights have been first-round victories. Is Hawes primed for another early finish? Or does Kyle Daukaus have what it takes to drag Hawes into deep water and pull out a victory?
Below I preview the matchup and odds for tonight’s fight.
Tale of the Tape
|Avg. Fight Time||5:59||15:00|
|Weight (pounds)||185 lbs.||185 lbs.|
|Date of birth||1/8/89||2/27/93|
|Sig Strikes Per Min||2.84||3.69|
|SS Absorbed Per Min||4.19||2.16|
|Take Down Avg||3.13||2.33|
Kyle Daukaus is a well-rounded fighter who stands at 6-foot-3 giving him a slight advantage over his opponent. In three UFC fights, we’ve seen him continually pushing forward and setting a difficult-to-match pace.
This is where we could see Hawes struggle. Hawes showcases quick-twitch, explosive movements that can be difficult to deal with. Unfortunately, Hawes’ last fight raised all sorts of questions about his ability to fight after the first round.
Watching Nassourdine Imavov push forward while Hawes struggled to move in Round 3 makes me question his gas tank. Hawes immediately pivoted to his wrestling after Round 1 — a tactic that is unlikely to have success in this fight against Daukaus.
Hawes vs. Daukaus Pick
Stylistically this is a tough matchup for Hawes, who will have to sell out for a knockout early or risk being in a world of trouble later in the fight.
We have seen Hawes fail to get the early knockout and look lost in the octagon afterward. Moreover, Daukaus profiles as a step-up in competition who typically gets stronger as the fight wears on.
Daukaus has a 94% takedown defense rate per UFC Stats giving me little confidence that Hawes will be able to land consistent takedowns if he needs a breather. Even if he does, Daukaus has a solid submission offense — eight of his 10 victories have come via submission.
If you would like to bet Hawes to knockout Daukaus — which every one of his opponents has failed to do so far — he is +425 to do so in Round 1. That will require quite a bit of luck and I prefer to bet the value side of fights, which, in this case, lies with Daukaus.
Daukaus is nearly even money sitting at -130 at PointsBet. I’m not a fan of their submission prop odds, which come in at +260. FanDuel has a clear disagreement on this prop hanging it at +420 — over an 8% difference in implied win probability.
I believe that Hawes could get extremely fatigued as this fight gets into the latter half. If he grows tired of Daukaus’ constant offensive pressure we could see Hawes shoot for a takedown. Daukaus is well known for his darce/brabo choke, which could be used here. If you are looking for a big win opportunity — Daukaus via submission in Round 3 is +2100 on FanDuel.
I think Daukaus’s most likely win condition is via decision since he is an excellent volume striker. However, I can sell the third round for minimal cost on PointsBet. Given how close Hawes was to being finished in the final round against Imavov, I’m inclined to do that here with an alternate round betting prop.
Daukaus is +235 to win in Round 3 or by decision. I think that is excellent value — I would bet that down to +210 — especially if you want to take a shot on Daukaus third-round submission +2100.
The Pick: Daukaus Round 3 or by decision (+235)