UFC Fight Night Updated Betting Odds, Picks & Projections: Analysis for Every Bout on Saturday’s Card
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: Andre Fili
- In search for a one-stop shop for every UFC Fight matchup tonight? You've come to the right place.
- Sean Zerillo previews the bouts on Saturday's slate including his projections for tonight's main card fights (10 p.m. ET ESPN).
- Below you'll find analysis and picks, including how he's betting tonight's main event between Jessica eye (+110 betting underdog) and Cynthia Calvillo (-134 betting favorite)).
UFC on ESPN 10 begins at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN and ESPN+ on Saturday with a four-fight preliminary card. The main card starts at 9 p.m. ET featuring six bouts, including the main event between Jessica Eye (15-7) and Cynthia Calvillo (8-1-1).
In addition to moneylines and Over/Unders, there are numerous ways to bet on an MMA fight — including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside of the distance.
As a result, after examining all of the betting options, your typical UFC card can offer a substantial amount of actionable value.
Check out the full betting odds for Saturday’s UFC card, with analysis and picks from Sean Zerillo for each fight below:
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UFC Fight Night Odds
- Time: 6 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN/ESPN+
Welterweight: Anthony Ivy vs. Christian Aguilera
Crowdsourced Projection: Anthony Ivy (81%)
A pair of fighters will make their UFC debuts to begin Saturday’s card as former Fury FC and WXC Welterweight champion Anthony Ivy (8-2) hopes to extend his five-fight winning streak against Christian Aguilera (13-6).
All 10 of Ivy’s fights and 14 of Aguilera’s 19 fights have finished inside of the distance, and Saturday’s contest is -278 (implied 73.4%) to end in a finish; with the total rounds set at 1.5 (-148 Over / +110 Under).
Ivy should be able to use his wrestling to continually pressure Aguilera and take him to the mat throughout the fight, before eventually winning by ground and pound via KO/TKO (+138), unless Aguilera can catch Ivy with a counter overhand right and win by a KO/TKO (+325) of his own.
Ivy is durable enough to take a punch and keep coming forward, however, and Aguilera’s one-dimensional style will eventually be exploited if he cannot find the knockout blow, especially while ceding five inches of height and three inches of reach to Ivy.
The total looks about right, but I do agree with the crowd, and I like Ivy to win inside of the distance.
More than 80% of the predictions favoring Ivy, at an 81% win rate, also like him to win via finish; which makes the fair odds for the inside the distance wager, in their opinion, around -184 (implied 65%).
Notably, Ivy – Round 1 (+240) is favored over Ivy by Decision (+350) in the round betting props.
Ivy vs. Aguilera Bets
- Anthony Ivy, Inside the Distance (+100, 0.5 units)
Flyweight: Zarukh Adashev vs. Tyson Nam
Crowdsourced Projection: Tyson Nam (70%)
Based upon the crowd projection, Nam is the clear value side in this fight – especially after Adadshev missed weight by three pounds on Friday.
Nam has the skillset to defeat the Uzbekistan native, but he needs to fight the proper gameplan and avoid sucked into a striking battle with the former professional kickboxer.
Given time and space, Adashev will stand in your face and throw with volume and power, and he won’t make it easy for Nam to record his first UFC win finally.
Adashev has an advantage with his southpaw stance, however. Lefties win 53% of the time against orthodox fighters.
Ultimately I’m going to pass on betting this fight – which is -162 to go the distance, but Adashev by decision (+300) or by KO/TKO/DQ (+700) does appeal to my degenerate side.
The math all points to Nam, however.
Adashev vs. Nam Bets
Women’s Bantamweight fight: Julia Avila vs. Gina Mazany
Crowdsourced Projection: Julia Avila (95%)
Julia Avila is the second-most significant favorite of the evening against Gina Mazany, who is 1-3 in the UFC, and coming off of a January knockout win in King of the Cage over a 44-year-old who hadn’t fought in nine years.
Mazany replaces Karol Rosa on a week’s notice, and to reiterate the stat from the Adashev-Nam fight above, late replacements (<40 days notice) only win at a 37% clip in the UFC. Additionally, they have been knocked out a staggering 32% of the time.
Mazany technically has the southpaw advantage (53% win rate vs. orthodox). Still, her true path to victory is to get the fight to the ground (averages 3.18 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC, with 77% accuracy) and seize top control.
Avila is a solid defensive wrestler, however, and she should be able to keep the fight standing – where she can connect with quick combinations from range and heavy knees in the clinch.
Her only career loss is the result of a first-round hand injury in 2018, and I would certainly include Avila, up to -650, as part of a three-leg parlay.
The crowd is pretty split as to whether Avila will finish the fight, however, and their fair odds for Avila to win inside the distance are around 48.5%, or +106.
Avila – Round 1 (+175) is favored over Avila by decision (+225) for round betting, which also makes Avila by KO/TKO (+136) or Under 2.5 rounds (-148) potential betting options – and I’ll take the plus-money prop on this exciting Bantamweight prospect.
Avila vs. Mazany Bets
- Use Julia Avila as a parlay piece.
- Julia Avila, by KO, TKO, or DQ (+136, 1 unit)
Catchweight (140): Merab Dvalishvili vs. Gustavo Lopez
Crowdsourced Projection: Merab Dvalishvili (93%)
Merab Dvalishvili was going to be around a -400 favorite against UFC veteran Ray Borg, and now he will go off as the most significant favorite on the card against late replacement Gustavo Lopez, the Combate Americas bantamweight champion.
To reiterate, late replacements win around 37% of the time in UFC fights, but ones who are also significant underdogs like Lopez (>+400 odds) are 2-38 (5%) in UFC fights.
Merab has averaged 7.8 takedowns per 15 minutes inside of the octagon, including 12 in his last win over Casey Kenney while winning three consecutive decisions – so this is an excellent chance to make a statement as a significant favorite in a match that is -190 to go the distance.
Merab by decision (-152) is favored for winning method, but Merab by KO/TKO (+350), submission (+450), or inside the distance (+195) are the proper contrarian plays in this spot.
And under 2.5 rounds (+155) also has some appeal – but I would keep any investments on this fight small.
Dvalishvili vs. Lopez Bets
- Time: 9 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
Women’s Flyweight: Hannah Cifers vs. Mariya Agapova
Crowdsourced Projection: Mariya Agapova (79%)
Hannah Cifers is already back, and fighting at Flyweight, after her first-round Straweight loss to Mackenzie Dern on May 30.
Cifers was small for strawweight, and she will be dwarfed moving up to 125 lbs., facing Mariya Agapova – who has a five-inch height advantage and six-inch reach advantage on Cifers, in addition to the southpaw advantage (53% win rate).
Agapova will look to throw a ton of kicks to keep Cifers at range, where she can probably tee-off all night and win by decision with ease – if she can continually deny Cifers from getting inside of her clinch.
Cifers is yet another late replacement (37% win rate) on this card, taking the fight on five-days notice; and her style could present problems for Agapova – who remains relatively green as a striker, and needs to change her mindset and gameplan after training to face a grappler.
Cifers is more technical, but the length for Agapova is a severe mismatch, and she carries significantly more stopping power than Cifers- who was knocked out by Angela Hill in January.
However, we have also seen plenty of UFC newcomers freeze during their first time in the octagon (43% win rate vs. veterans), and I’ll pass on betting this fight.
Agapova offers value as a parlay piece up to -300 and is favored by decision (+120) under the winning method market. Still, I prefer her to win inside the distance (+188) or Under 2.5 rounds (+140) thanks to both the size discrepancy and Cifers’ known issues on the mat.
Agapova vs. Cifers Bets
Bantamweight: Jordan Espinosa vs. Mark De La Rosa
|De La Rosa odds||+142|
Crowdsourced Projection: Jordan Espinosa (78%)
Speaking of struggles on the mat, Jordan Espinosa has lost by first-round submission in each of his past two fights, but he should have a significant advantage against Mark De La Rosa on the feet.
Espinosa (+1.25) is an excellent athlete and his four-inch reach advantage, which should allow him to comfortably strike from range against De La Rosa, who prefers to wrestle and owns a negative strike differential (-0.98) during his UFC career.
Espinosa’s takedown defense (20%) is extremely vulnerable, and he typically gasses out after the first round – which would be a problem against a significantly stronger fighter. Still, De La Rosa (15% takedown accuracy) isn’t that man.
The smaller, 25-foot octagon should help the underdog a bit here, and although the crowd suggests that Espinosa offers betting value, the second half of this fight – which is -210 to go the distance – could be a 50/50 grind for points.
Espinosa vs. De La Rosa Bets
Featherweight: Andre Fili vs. Charles Jourdain
Crowdsourced Projection: Andre Fili (78%)
Andre Fili is simply the better athlete and more well-rounded fighter than Charles Jourdain – with a two-inch height advantage, 5-inch reach advantage, superior strike metrics, and an actual grappling game (2.49 takedowns per 15 minutes, 45% accuracy).
Jourdain is a knockout threat — listed at +350 in the winning method market, the second choice behind Fili by decision (-106) – whose cardio holds up for three rounds. Fili should be able to keep him at range with his jab and take him down whenever he wants, however.
If Fili decides to keep the fight standing, Jourdain’s constant pressure could eventually break down his defenses. Still, Fili has a clear edge on the grappling side and can hold his own in the standup portions – which gives him multiple paths to victory.
Fili vs. Jourdain Bets
- Use Andre Fili as a parlay piece.
Lightweight fight: Charles Rosa vs. Kevin Aguilar
Crowdsourced Projection: Kevin Aguilar (61%)
The crowd projection aligns very closely with the listed odds for this bout between a pair of UFC veterans – and with the crowd generally leaning towards favorites, I have to take a long look at the underdog here.
Charles Rosa has recorded 11 of his 12 career wins by stoppage, including two submission wins in the UFC – but he is +375 to defeat Aguilar by decision, +525 to win by submission, and +850 by KO, TKO, or DQ.
Aguilar by decision (+110) is favored under the winning method, for a fight that is -177 to go the distance. He has more power, but Rosa likely has the grappling advantage. If he can secure multiple takedowns (averages 2.35 per 15 minutes), he can attempt a submission or grind out a decision victory.
Aguilar is the much more technical boxer, however, and he could pick Rosa apart on the feet while taking advantage of the four-inch reach discrepancy.
I would either look to bet Rosa or pass on betting this fight.
Aguilar vs. Rosa Bets
- Charles Rosa (+160, 0.5 units)
Middleweight: Karl Roberson vs. Marvin Vettori
Crowdsourced Projection: Martin Vettori (82%)
Roberson and Vettori were scheduled to fight on May 13, but Roberson missed weight and subsequently pulled out of the fight due to rhabdomyolysis, and Vettori tried to fight him in the hotel lobby instead.
It was laughable when Roberson weighed in five pounds over on Friday, and there’s no doubt that Saturday’s co-main event will be a heated matchup.
I was going to bet Vettori fairly heavily on that May 13 card – he was reportedly peaking in training and presented an intense matchup against Roberson; and none of that has changed in the time since – I’m just hoping that the Italian is still on top of his game, one month later than initially planned.
Vettori is extremely well-rounded without being a specialist. He doesn’t have a single standout tool – though his boxing continues to improve in each fight, and he’s both durable and relentless.
Relative to Roberson, Vettori will look to apply forward pressure and get away from “Baby K’s” kickboxing. Roberson will look for the early knockout (+700 by KO/TKO) but this fight is -200 to go the distance, with Vettori by decision (-106) or Roberson by decision (+375) as the most likely outcomes.
The only loss in Vettori’s past five fights was a split decision against Israel Adesanya. Although he only has one stoppage win in the UFC (by submission), he has eight submissions in his career, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he finds a way to tap out Roberson on Saturday.
Vettori by submission (+500) or KO/TKO (+700) are interesting prop wagers, and Under 2.5 rounds (+175) is also enticing, given that both fighters have paths to a finish and could be emotional and/or overly aggressive given the circumstances surrounding this bout’s rescheduling.
Roberson vs. Vettori Bets
- Use Marvin Vettori as a parlay piece
- Roberson / Vettori, Under 2.5 rounds (+173, 0.5 units)
Women’s Featherweight: Jessica Eye vs. Cynthia Calvillo
Crowdsourced Projection: Jessica Eye (51%)
If you want a more in-depth analysis of the main event, check out my full fight preview.
In short, Jessica Eye is essentially 4-1 since dropping down from Bantamweight to Flyweight, where she can use her size to bully smaller fighters as one of the best technical strikers in women’s MMA.
Cynthia Calvillo has the wrestling chops to wrangle and submit her opponent, but she is moving up from Strawweight to Flyweight; so she is significantly smaller than Eye and has also shown the tendency to gas out in the past – which will make it difficult to win by decision in a five-round fight.
Eye opened as a favorite against Calvillo but has now been bet to plus-money after missing weight, despite the fact that she won after missing weight by five pounds in December, and has won four of her five Bantamweight bouts after opening as an underdog.
At +110, there is clear betting value on Eye, who did appear unsteady at the weigh-in. Perhaps after a challenging weight cut, she is the one who struggles with her stamina more throughout five rounds.
But I do need to consider making a small wager on Eye, after the swift line adjustment. And I think that you either take plus-money or pass on what looks to be a coin flip fight.
Eye vs. Calvillo Bets
- Jessica Eye +110 (0.5 units)
Zerillo’s UFC Fight Night Bets
- Anthony Ivy, Inside the Distance (+100, 0.5 units)
- Julia Avila, win by KO, TKO, or DQ (+130, 1 unit)
- Charles Rosa +160 (0.5 units)
- Roberson / Vettori, Under 2.5 rounds (+173, 0.5 units)
- Jessica Eye +110 (0.5 units)
- Parlay: Andre Fili / Marvin Vettori (+114, 1 unit)
- Parlay: Julia Avila / Andre Fili / Marvin Vettori (+149, 0.75 units)