UFC Nashville Odds, Pick & Prediction for Billy Quarantillo vs. Damon Jackson: Take ‘Dog With Grappling Upside (Saturday, Aug. 5)

UFC Nashville Odds, Pick & Prediction for Billy Quarantillo vs. Damon Jackson: Take ‘Dog With Grappling Upside (Saturday, Aug. 5) article feature image

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC featherweight Damon Jackson

Billy Quarantillo vs. Damon Jackson Odds

Quarantillo Odds-164
Jackson Odds+138
Over/Under2.5 (+110 / -140)
VenueBridgestone Arena in Nashville
Bout Time9 p.m. ET
BroadcastESPN and ESPN+
Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via FanDuel

Two exciting featherweights look to get back in the win column as Billy Quarantillo and Damon Jackson clash at UFC Nashville on Saturday night following knockout losses in each fighter's last appearance.

For Jackson, that defeat ended an impressive four-fight winning streak that saw him approaching the rankings.

"Billy Q," meanwhile, has alternated wins and losses over his last six bouts, beating lesser competition but struggling against the upper half of the 145-pound division.

Both men know how to put on a show, though, with wild brawls and awkward styles that make this an early frontrunner for the Fight of the Night bonus.

Unfortunately, that's not a bet we can widely make – but I've got some other angles worth considering.

Tale of the Tape

Avg. Fight Time11:048:57
Weight (pounds)145 pounds145 pounds
Reach (inches)70"71"
Date of birth12/8/19888/8/1988
Sig Strikes Per Min7.862.78
SS Accuracy58%40%
SS Absorbed Per Min5.792.92
SS Defense40%51%
Take Down Avg1.512.35
TD Acc23%38%
TD Def58%40%
Submission Avg1.21.8

Quarantillo looked bad in his last fight, getting picked apart on the feet by Edson Barboza before being finished with a knee in the opening frame.

On the other hand, that happens to a lot of people when they have to fight Barboza, so it's hard to read too much into that.

Quarantillo's best attribute is easily his cardio and volume, as evidenced by his absurd significant-strikes-landed rate. He's just as voluminous with his grappling, attempting more than six takedowns per 15 minutes throughout his UFC career.

He's a bit wild on the feet, swinging big when the situation may not call for it. However, that's partially used as cover for his takedown entries, so I'm not going to necessarily paint that as a flaw. I was very impressed by Quarantillo's takedown entries when watching tape on him, but less so on his takedown finishing ability.

He seems to be somewhat consistently at a strength disadvantage at featherweight, which is a double-edged sword that enables/explains his excellent cardio. It does make securing takedowns – particularly along the fence – a challenge, though.

On the feet, he uses his length well behind a solid jab, though that's less useful here against the longer Jackson.

Quarantillo has average-at-best power, with two of his three knockouts coming on volume and attrition more than landing a big strike. He might have the slight power edge over Jackson, but I wouldn't bank on a one-shot KO from either man.

Fan favorite Billy Quarantillo (@BillyQMMA) returns to the Octagon this weekend at #UFCNashville

• 17-5
• 8 KO/TKO
• 5 Submissions
• Former King of the Cage Lightweight champion

Does Billy Q get back in the win column this saturday?

(✍️: @JUchiha909) pic.twitter.com/U2nq3SNaMX

— Combat Sports Today 📰 (@CSTodayNews) August 1, 2023

Jackson is probably the better technical striker, mixing in kicks well. However, he's a below-average athlete (by UFC standards), with limited foot and hand speed.

Jackson's knockout loss to Ige wasn't a technical failure on his part. Rather, Ige's hands were so much faster that he beat Jackson to the target.

Jackson excels in the grappling exchanges, though, both with his offensive takedowns and his submissions. While his defensive wrestling isn't great, it's a risky game for anyone to play due to the submission threat he presents.

Also of note is Jackson's penchant for fast starts. His quick knockout of Pat Sabatini is the most notable example, but even in other fights, he tends to swarm from the opening bell.

While it doesn't always work for him, it's an interesting contrast to a fighter such as Quarantillo who's playing a longer game.

Quarantillo vs. Jackson Pick

From a pure skill standpoint, I'd say the underdog Jackson is the better fighter here. The striking is fairly close, but I prefer Jackson's all-around grappling game to Quarantillo's.

Of course, that doesn't paint the full story here. Quarantillo is a much better athlete, particularly in the later rounds of the fight. Jackson is a bit more aggressive early on, and while he doesn't have bad cardio by any stretch, it's not a strength in the way it is for Quarantillo.

That makes this a pretty clear "Jackson early, Quarantillo late" choice. My favorite way to bet fights like that is to wait for a live line, as we can potentially get the benefit of a better line while avoiding the risk of an early stoppage ruining the bet.

If playing this one prefight, I'm leaning toward Jackson. While I hate betting against a fellow Grown Man Who Still Goes By Billy, I'll generally take an underdog with grappling upside whenever I can. Quarantillo is 5-0 in the UFC when landing at least one takedown – but 0-3 when he doesn't.

Beyond that, look for "Quarantillo in Round 3 or by Decision" on FanDuel. It captures his likeliest win condition, and you can get it for +270 as of fight day.

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