Read our UFC Shanghai predictions for the Saturday, August 23 event live from the Shanghai Indoor Center in Shanghai, China. The preliminary card airs on ESPN+ starting at 3:00 a.m. ET, with the main card officially starting at 6:00 a.m.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 12-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and identified their three favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC Shanghai Moneyline Projections
UFC Shanghai Prop Projections
Lone'er Kavanagh vs. Charles Johnson
Billy Ward, Staff Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:15 a.m. ET
I've been betting on Lone'er Kavanagh at every available opportunity since his debut on the Contender Series, a strategy that has paid off with Kavanagh now 3-0 between the UFC and Contender Series.
He faces an appropriate step up in competition in Shanghai, against the veteran Charles Johnson. Johnson is just 6-5 in the UFC, but is a tough out for anyone, taking the undefeated record of Azat Maksum and handing Josh Van his first UFC loss.
However, this is a tricky stylistic matchup for Johnson. He's the taller and longer fighter, but the 5'4" Kavanagh has a traditional martial arts style that thrives on having space and time to set up leaping, spinning, and darting attacks.
If Johnson pressures forward the way he typically does, he opens himself up to the Judo game of Kavanagh, where he mixes in clinch takedowns effectively against opponents who deny him the space he needs to operate.
Kavanagh also has excellent striking defense, which isn't typically the case for Karate-style strikers. He carries his hands high and uses an "all the way in or all the way out" style of range management that makes it difficult for opponents to land offense.
However, I do have concerns about his cardio, which is where Johnson shines. The former distance runner often takes over late, after wearing down his opposition with pace earlier in the fight.
Kavanagh is the much more dynamic and dangerous fighter early, though, with solid power on the feet and underrated submissions. I was surprised to see that the "Finish Only" moneyline for Kavanagh at DraftKings was -186 compared to his -218 moneyline, which implies Johnson's win equity is more heavily comprised of a stoppage.
I'm taking that prop as my best bet on Kavanagh since it should be on the other side of his moneyline, and also taking a sprinkle on Kavanagh by finish at +400 in order to have some additional upside if my read is correct.
The Pick: Kavanagh Finish Only ML -186 (DraftKings) | Kavanagh Inside the Distance +400 (.25u)
Aljamain Sterling vs. Brian Ortega
Sean Zerillo, Senior Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:45 a.m. ET
After reports initially suggesting that this five-round co-main event was off due to a bad weight cut for Ortega, the former Featherweight title challenger made it to the scales at 153 pounds on Friday, allowing the fight to continue at a catchweight.
It wasn't the miss for Ortega so much as how he looked physically – moving like an octogenarian as he walked to face off with Sterling.
I liked the Sterling side of the fight before the weight miss, and have even more conviction now – but my opinion on method of victory has changed from Sterling by decision to inside the distance – and there is value across the betting market on this fight.
While Sterling quickly climbed from a -275 to -400 favorite after the weigh-in drama, his point spread (-5.5, -110) has held steady at DraftKings – and that's my favorite way to bet the fight.
Sterling is the far better minute winner, outlanding opponents by 2.5 strikes per minute at distance, while Ortega absorbs 2.7 more strikes per minute than his typical opponent.
Moreover, Sterling is the superior control grappler – attempting nearly six takedowns per five minutes at distance (vs. 1.7 for Ortega)- with a higher control rate (64% vs. 48%) than his opponent.
Ortega is likely drawing dead to a knockout or submission in this fight – and while Sterling could shoot his head into a guillotine or get triangled from guard, he's one of the best all-around grapplers in the sport, and losing in that manner would require a significant fight IQ mistake on his behalf.
Ortega's body has broken down physically in recent years, too – dislocating his shoulder in the cage against Yair Rodriguez, and rolling both ankles before their rematch – and I'd anticipate that Sterling can find a way to finish the fight – whether in a scramble, via injury TKO, or exhaustion – across a 25-minute contest.
I'd use Sterling as a parlay piece to -400, would take his point spread (-5.5) to -200, or bet him to win inside the distance to +190 (projected +176).
Moreover, you can bet the fight to end inside the distance (projected +113), which can also function as a partial hedge against Sterling's moneyline; I don't see any path in this contest where Ortega wins three out of five rounds without finding a finish.
The Pick: Aljamain Sterling (-5.5 Points, -110 at DraftKings) | Aljamain Sterling wins Inside the Distance (+305 at Caesars in SGP) | Fight Ends Inside the Distance (+145 at Caesars)
