UFC Vegas 92 Odds, Picks, Projections: Our Best Bets for ESPN+ Fight Night (Saturday, May 18)

UFC Vegas 92 Odds, Picks, Projections: Our Best Bets for ESPN+ Fight Night (Saturday, May 18) article feature image

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC welterweight Ramiz Brajimaj

Check out the latest UFC odds for UFC Vegas 92 with our expert predictions for Saturday, March 18.

UFC Vegas 92 takes place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. The event streams on ESPN+, and it starts at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT) for the preliminary card and 7 p.m. ET for the main card.

The UFC odds board shows 12 bouts on today's lineup, and it features a mix of vets and prospects, including a handful of ranked fighters.

So where should you look to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed four fights and picks on Saturday’s ESPN+ card that present betting value.

Below, you can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections using odds from BetMGM.

(Matchup odds as of Saturday afternoon and via FanDuel. Make your UFC Vegas 92 bets with our FanDuel promo code.)

UFC Odds – UFC Vegas 92

Moneyline Projections

Prop Projections

Tony Sartori: Abus Magomedov vs. Warlley Alves

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:55 p.m. ET

Saturday's UFC preliminary card features a middleweight bout between two unranked contenders as Abus Magomedov (-290) takes on Warlley Alves (+235). Magomedov opened as a -280 favorite, and that line has since ticked up to -290.

I agree with the steam on the moderate favorite.

I think the only reason this line is south of three dollars is that we can all agree Magomedov has looked terrible in his last two losses. However, those defeats came against Sean Strickland, former 185-pound champion and current No. 1-ranked middleweight contender, and Caio Borralho, the current No. 12-ranked contender.

Now, we should definitely be concerned with how he looked in those two losses, especially Magomedov's suspect gas tank. With that said, those two guys are on an entirely different level than Alves, and this is a perfect opportunity for Magomedov to get back on track.

There really is not much to like about Alves, who probably wouldn't even still be in the UFC if not for his submission victory over Colby Covington nearly a decade ago. Since then, Alves is 4-7 over 11 fights.

Three of his past five losses have come by knockout, which presents a challenge against the hard-hitting Magomedov; 14 of the favorite's 25 wins through his professional career have come by KO/TKO. I mentioned earlier that Magomedov gasses early, which is the only way he would lose to a guy like Alves.

However, oddsmakers aren't worried about that gas tank coming into play as the "Under 1.5 Rounds" prop is listed at -140. If we are expecting a quick finish, then I undoubtedly think it will be by the hands of Magomedov.

The Pick: Abus Magomedov by KO/TKO (+120 at FanDuel)

Dann Stupp: Luana Pinheiro vs. Angela Hill

Senior Editor at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:55 p.m. ET

I'm going with Angela Hill (-142) in her main-card opener with fellow strawweight Luana Pinheiro (+120) as my best bet.

It just feels right, and rarely do I go with my gut in such a straightforward way. But when it comes to Hill, I think we know what we've got: the ultimate gatekeeper.

And I don't mean that as a knock. At damn near 40, Hill remains a cardio machine who can simply outpace and outmaneuver everyone but the cream of the crop at 115 pounds. And as we've seen in her past 15 fights – all under the UFC banner – she's literally unstoppable in the cage.

That's going to be a key aspect of this fight, in my betting opinion. Unless an opponent has proven finishing ability, it's going to be nearly impossible to win two out of three rounds against the ever-busy Hill.

Pinheiro's 11-2 record doesn't mean nearly as much as Hill's career 16-13 mark when you consider where those fights took place, the quality of competition, and the actual skills and conditioning displayed in those fights.

For Pinheiro to win this fight, she's likely going to need to do damage in the clinch and score some takedowns. Those are never easy propositions against Hill, and the judo-minded Pinheiro could drain her tank early as she looks for an edge.

I like Hill to win straight up on the moneyline at -144 (59.2% implied win probability), and I'd bet it to -186 (65%). You might be able to find an even better price after Round 1 in the live-betting markets, especially if Pinheiro has some early success.

However, I'd advise against getting greedy and taking Hill to win by decision (+105 at BetRivers). I believe Hill has some real late-fight finishing potential, especially if Pinheiro drains her tank early and becomes an easy mark for the vet. (That's why my UFC pick for MMA Prop Squad this week is Hill in Round 3 at +2500 odds, which is also worth a small flier.)

The Pick: Angela Hill (-144 at FanDuel)

Billy Ward: Themba Gorimbo vs. Ramiz Brahimaj

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:55 p.m. ET

We have something of a striker vs. grappler matchup on the UFC Vegas 91 main card as Rami Brahimaj returns from a layoff of more than two years.

Brahimaj is 10-4 as a professional and 2-2 in the UFC occtagon with all 10 of those wins coming via submission. Brahimaj (+128) is fighting Themba Gorimbo (-152), who’s 1-2 in the UFC coming into the weekend.

Brahimaj is clearly playing the role of the grappler here since Gorimbo is more known for his power. While Gorimbo will wrestle at times, that typically does him more harm than good, as we saw in his submission loss to AJ Fletcher. Gorimbo was also taken down twice by Takashi Sato – who has just one takedown in his six other UFC appearances.

This fight being at the Apex also is a big plus for Brahmiaj. He’s giving up four inches in reach, but that’s less impactful in the tight quarters of the smaller UFC cage. The close range should also lead to more takedown opportunities for Brahimaj.

There will be some scary moments on the feet in this one, given the striking edge held by Gorimbo. However, I’m willing to take a swing at plus money on Brahimaj getting this one to the canvas, where he has a clear advantage.

I’m also interested in betting Brahimaj by submission at +190 as that clearly represents the bulk of his win condition.

The Pick: Ramiz Brahimaj (+137 at bet365)

Sean Zerillo: Carlston Harris vs. Khaos Williams

Senior Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET

Khaos Williams, a Michigan native, has transitioned from overrated to underrated. His first two UFC fights were a testament to his explosive power, with both ending in quick knockouts in less than 30 seconds. However, he has surprised many with his cardio, output and defensive grappling in subsequent matchups.

Williams (-130) will be much stronger than Carlston Harris (+110). He's also seven years younger, offers more volume, and is the far more durable fighter.

Williams has averaged 6.1 strikes landed per minute at distance compared to 4.8 for Harris. He's also the bigger hitter and should land the more impactful strikes.

Harris retains the grappling upside in this matchup. Still, Williams has shown solid first-layer takedown defense (80%) and quickly popped back to his feet against Michel Pereira (spent just 1:21 in getting controlled).

Harris may land takedowns in this fight, but he needs to keep Williams flat on his back – which will be incredibly difficult. He'll look to use grappling exchanges to set up his dangerous anaconda choke (three of his past five wins by that method) and finish the fight.

Even if Harris has moderate grappling success (and keeps up on striking volume) Williams should land the far more powerful and damaging strikes – and potentially finish the fight via KO/TKO.

He also has a better chin. Harris has been wobbled multiple times in the UFC, and Williams barely reacts when he's hit cleanly.

The Pick: Khaos Williams (-130 at DraftKings & Caesars Sportsbook)

How would you rate this article?

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.