Formula 1 Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix Odds, Starting Grid: Lewis Hamilton Favored Over Max Verstappen

Formula 1 Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix Odds, Starting Grid: Lewis Hamilton Favored Over Max Verstappen article feature image
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Clive Mason – Formula 1/Formula 1 via Getty Images. Pictured: Max Verstappen of the Netherlands driving the (33) Red Bull Racing RB16B Honda on track during the F1 Grand Prix of Bahrain at Bahrain International Circuit on March 28, 2021 in Bahrain, Bahrain

  • Mercedes' Lewis Hamilton is the betting favorite for Sunday's Formula 1 Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix, with Red Bull's Max Verstappen the second betting choice.
  • Hamilton took the pole in qualifying on Saturday with the two Red Bull cars slotting in behind him.

Odds to Win 2021 Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix

Driver Odds Probability
Lewis Hamilton 110 47.62%
Max Verstappen 180 35.71%
Sergio Perez 550 15.38%
Valtteri Bottas 3000 3.23%
Lando Norris 3300 2.94%
Charles Leclerc 4000 2.44%
Pierre Gasly 6000 1.64%
Daniel Ricciardo 7000 1.4%
Carlos Sainz Jr 15000 0.6%
EstebanOcon 40000 0.22%
Lance Stroll 50000 0.2%
Yuki Tsunoda 50000 0.2%
Fernando Alonso 50000 0.2%
Sebastian Vettel 50000 0.2%
George Russell 50000 0.2%
Nicholas Latifi 50000 0.2%
Kimi Raikkonen 50000 0.2%
Antonio Giovinazzi 50000 0.2%
Mick Schumacher 50000 0.2%
Nikita Mazepin 50000 0.2%

After a 20-day break, Formula 1 is back for its second race of the season with the Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix on Sunday at 9 a.m. ET.

F1 added this event to the schedule last season to make up for lost races during the COVID-19 pandemic. It was the first race at Imola since 2006, so we don’t have a ton of recent data.

Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton is now the favorite at +110 at PointsBet. He won the pole on Saturday, which caused him to move from +140 to +110. Red Bull’s Sergio Perez qualified second and dropped from 18-1 to +550. His teammate, Max Verstappen, is still the second betting choice at +180.

So the Red Bulls will start No. 2 and No. 3. Merc’s Valtteri Bottas will start eighth.

Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix Starting Grid

Position Driver Team
1 Lewis Hamilton MERCEDES
2 Sergio Perez RED BULL
3 Max Verstappen RED BULL
4 Charles Leclerc FERRARI
5 Pierre Gasly ALPHATAURI
6 Daniel Ricciardo MCLAREN
7 Lando Norris MCLAREN
8 Valtteri Bottas MERCEDES
9 Esteban Ocon ALPINE RENAULT
10 Lance Stroll ASTON MARTIN
11 Carlos Sainz FERRARI
12 George Russell WILLIAMS
13 Sebastian Vettel ASTON MARTIN
14 Nicholas Latifi WILLIAMS
15 Fernando Alonso ALPINE RENAULT
16 Kimi Räikkönen ALFA ROMEO
17 Antonio Giovinazzi ALFA ROMEO
18 Mick Schumacher HAAS
19 Nikita Mazepin HAAS
RT Yuki Tsunoda ALPHATAURI

Last season at Imola, Bottas took the pole from Hamilton by 0.097 seconds, and both were more than one-half second better than Verstappen. Hamilton ended up winning the race with Bottas second and Daniel Ricciardo third (then with Renault). Verstappen was poised for a second-place finish before an “instantaneous puncture” knocked him out late in the race.

So far this year, Red Bull has had the fastest car in Formula 1, despite Hamilton’s strategically superior win in the season opener at Bahrain. Verstappen went off in that race at -175 (54.02% probability to win) with Hamilton at +190 (29.27%), so it’s a big move from the opener.

Mercedes had the two fastest cars in Friday’s FP2 at Imola with Gasly just 0.078 seconds behind Bottas. Verstappen had an issue early in the session and ended up with the 14th-fastest car. Red Bull’s Perez was sixth, with both Ferraris and Gasly ahead of him.

Rain is likely for race day, so could we get another midfield car hitting the podium like Ricciardo last season? McLaren will surely be a favorite amongst bettors in some of the more niche markets this weekend, with Lando Norris’s P4 finish in Bahrain and Ricciardo’s P7 that could have been even better. The McLaren cars +450 and +600 to hit the podium, and -162 and -137 for a top six finish after they qualified sixth and seventh.

If you’re playing an “experience on a unique track” angle, look no further than AlphaTauri. It’s the only team to test its car at Imola this season since the team is headquartered just down the road. Gasly is +550 to hit the podium after qualifying P5 on Saturday.

Gasly qualified P4 here last season, but did not finish because of a water pressure issue. AlphaTauri disappointed in Bahrain, so it might be a good buy-low spot.

Gasly also won a rainy race in Italy last season, the first of his career. Carlos Sainz, now with Ferrari, finished second in that race, with Lance Stroll third.

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