Updated Formula 1 Odds & Picks: Betting Predictions for Sunday’s Australian Grand Prix (April 9)
Photo by Clive Rose – Formula 1/Formula 1 via Getty Images. Pictured: Formula 1 driver Daniel Ricciardo
It was a thrilling final-lap finish in Saudi Arabia as pre-race favorite Max Verstappen overtook Charles Leclerc to clinch his first win of 2022.
Although that was the main storyline, plenty others emerged from the year’s second race. Ferrari clinched its second consecutive double podium while Sergio Perez dropped from pole to finish fourth ahead of George Russell in the Mercedes.
As for our bets, it was a second straight 2-1 week to move to 4-2 (+2.2 units) on the season. Now, after a week off, we refocus on Australia as drivers ready themselves for a second consecutive street circuit.
To start, let’s take a look at the latest odds for the Australian Grand Prix via BetMGM.
Formula 1 Australian Grand Prix Odds
*Odds as of Saturday morning
Without further delay, here are my three best bets for the Australian Grand Prix.
Formula 1 Australian Grand Prix Picks
Alpine Double-Points Finish (+105 at PointsBet)
I’ve been thoroughly impressed by the Alpine car through two races, and I believe that success continues down under.
As referenced last week, Esteban Ocon has a very good record on street circuits dating back to the beginning of last season. Including his points finish in the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, Ocon now owns a top-10 finish in three of his last four races on street circuits.
Plus, so long as he doesn’t crash out or post a DNF, Ocon has proven himself a reliable source of points for Alpine. In Ocon’s last eight races in which he’s been classified, the Frenchman has posted a finish of P10 or better in seven.
That would presumably leave the onus to cash this bet on former world champion Fernando Alonso, who retired from Saudi Arabia due to engine issues. However, he qualified in P7 at that race and P8 in Bahrain.
Lastly, Alonso ran in the points for the entirety of the 35 laps he participated in Saudi Arabia and owns a victory at this grand prix all the way back in 2006.
Alonso has also finished in the points in 11 straight Australian Grand Prix appearances in which he’s been classified at the conclusion.
Even though he’s posted a DNF in two of his last three at this race, expect a bounce-back performance from Alonso as both Alpines earn points.
Daniel Ricciardo (+140) over Guanyu Zhou (BetMGM)
I recognize Daniel Ricciardo and McLaren have had their issues to begin the season, but even this is an overreaction.
Although Zhou has finished ahead of Danny Ricc in both races this season, the gap between them is fairly narrow. In fact, Ricciardo, who might I add is racing in his home grand prix this weekend, qualified ahead of the Alfa Romeo rookie in Saudi Arabia before succumbing to car trouble as he retired.
Plus, although he recorded a DNF at the 2019 Australian Grand Prix, there’s good history for Ricciardo at his home race. He was P4 here in 2018 and 2016 to go along with a P6 in 2015.
Although there was another DNF in 2017, he posted a P10 finish in qualifying.
Given Zhou has qualified P15 and P13 in the first two races, respectively, I believe he’s being drastically overrated in the market based on his finishing positions. Although Ricciardo experienced some problems, Zhou’s finishing positions can largely be attributed to cars ahead of him failing.
With Ricciardo back at a comfortable track after an extended rest, expect a better version of the Australian at Sunday’s grand prix and for him to finish ahead of the F1 rookie.
Carlos Sainz, Charles Leclerc & Max Verstappen All Finish in Top 10 (-130 at PointsBet)
I’m sorry, but how is this price not north of -200?
All three arrive in Australia off very impressive performances at the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix and were a tire lock-up away from these drivers all finishing in the points at both Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.
I’ll begin with the two Ferraris, which basically need to crash in order to not finish in the points.
Although Sainz did post a DNF at the 2019 Australian Grand Prix, he was in the points in five straight prior Australian Grand Prix appearances in what were objectively worse cars.
Given he’s qualified in P3 for two consecutive races, I have the utmost faith that Sainz will win points come Sunday.
As for his teammate Leclerc, he finished P5 in the 2019 Australian Grand Prix as a Ferrari driver after a P13 with Sauber in 2018. Combine the former finish with his record in two races this year, and I’ll be stunned if he’s outside the top-10 here.
That leaves Verstappen, the race winner from last week and (presumably?) the biggest risk of the trio.
That said, Verstappen was P3 here in 2019, P6 in 2018 and P5 in 2017. Add in a P10 with Toro Rosso in 2016, and that means Verstappen has finished in the points in four consecutive Australian Grand Prix appearances.
Maybe this price is lower because of his car troubles in Bahrain, but I’m still willing to buy-low if that’s the case. Perhaps it ends up being too good to be true, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take.