Mispriced Indy 500 Prop Offering Significant Betting Value

Mispriced Indy 500 Prop Offering Significant Betting Value article feature image
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Pictured: Verizon IndyCar Series driver Tony Kanaan (left) talks with Helio Castroneves Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

The Sunday of Memorial Day Weekend is the single-best motorsports betting day of the year, highlighted by a loaded race schedule:

-Formula 1’s Monaco Grand Prix (9:10 a.m. ET)
-IndyCar’s Indianapolis 500 (12:19 p.m. ET)
-NASCAR’s Coca-Cola 600 (6:18 p.m. ET)

 

It’s a glorious day of betting action for those who love auto racing. However, I understand that motorsports betting is a niche market and can be intimidating for those who don’t normally follow racing, especially when facing the prospects of combing through futures, driver matchups, props, etc. to find value.

If you’re looking for a motorsports sweat this weekend, there is a current Indy 500 prop bet offering one of the most significant edges I’ve seen all season.

At the time of publication, The Greek is offering a prop where bettors wager on which manufacturer will win the Indy 500, Honda or Chevy? Chevy is a heavy -220 favorite, leading us to believe that Chevy drivers are expected to dominate this race. However, that is simply not a given.

By using the current futures at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, I converted odds to win the Indy 500 for each to implied probabilities, adjusted for the vig, then added up the “true” odds for each driver and compared them to the current Chevy vs. Honda prop bet.

Here are the results:

Based on the odds, a Chevy driver should win this race around 70% of the time, but the futures market says that number should be just over 53%.

Conversely, Honda has a 46.72% chance to win the race, but current odds price them at only 29.41%, a difference of +17.31%. If you’re looking for an Indy 500 sweat but aren’t interested in building a full card of drivers to win, this is the bet for you.