NASCAR Props Challenge Picks for Sunday’s Texas O’Reilly Auto Parts 500

Mar 27, 2019 12:12 PM EDT
Credit:

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series driver Kevin Harvick (4) and his team

  • NASCAR's Props Challenge game asks fans to answer 10 prop-betting questions each week, with weekly winners eligible for prizes.
  • PJ Walsh offers his Props Challenge picks and analysis for Sunday's O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 (3 p.m. ET, FOX) at Texas Motor Speedway.

After some short track beating and banging last weekend at Martinsville Speedway, the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series (MENCS) returns to the new aero package at Texas Motor Speedway.

Texas was repaved following the MENCS race in November 2016, meaning the surface is new and has not had ample time to age. As a result, the track remains very smooth and results in very little tire wear.

So because of the new aero package, we’ll be leaning on the race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway earlier this month due to the track similarities (both 1.5-mile racetracks) and lack of tire wear.

Below are my NASCAR Props Challenge picks for Sunday’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 at Texas Motor Speedway.

1. Does Ryan Blaney extend his 2019 top-five streak to four races?

Blaney has been fast all season, but struggled at Las Vegas in March. In fact, the Team Penske driver ranked fourth overall in green flag speed at both Atlanta and Auto Club, yet just 17th in Vegas.

As I mentioned in the intro, I expect the racing at Texas to be much closer to Las Vegas, so I’m going no.

Answer: No

2. Over/under 2.5 Toyotas finish in the top 10 at Texas Motor Speedway

Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. are the easy answers to finish in the top 10 at Texas, and Denny Hamlin has been plenty fast as well. All three currently rank among the top 10 in terms of betting odds at Westgate, with Erik Jones just outside, tied for 11th best odds.

Three of the four Joe Gibbs Racing drivers should get in there, so I’m taking the over.

Answer: Over 2.5

3. Kurt Busch has four straight top 10s at Texas, but his best finish was seventh. Does he finish better than seventh on Sunday?