Daytona 500 Odds & Predictions: The Best Favorite & Longshot Betting Picks for Sunday’s NASCAR Race
Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyler Reddick, driver of the #8 Lenovo Chevrolet
- The green flag for the 2021 Daytona 500 (2:30 p.m. ET, FOX) will wave in less than one hour!
- Superspeedway racing is very unpredictable due to large packs of cars driving around in very close quarters, often resulting in huge wrecks.
- Because of the Daytona 500's randomness, PJ Walsh explains one favorite and one big longshot he's adding to his NASCAR betting card for the Great American Race.
The start of the 2021 Daytona 500 (2:30 p.m. ET, FOX) is almost here!
The Daytona 500 is not only NASCAR biggest race, but it’s also the season-opening event, which allows sportsbooks to post odds weeks, and even months, in advance.
This also gives bettors a chance to get down on the Daytona 500 early, building betting cards throughout most of the offseason.
Personally, I bet Denny Hamlin, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Chris Buescher in early January, and the drivers below are additions to three initial wagers.
After analyzing Thursday’s Duel races and historical data, here are two more drivers I’m betting to win the Daytona 500.
Daytona 500 Betting Picks
*Odds as of Feb. 14 at 7:40 a.m. ET
Joey Logano (+1200) To Win Daytona 500
With back-to-back Daytona 500 wins, including victories in three of the past five events, Denny Hamlin is considered the race favorite by fans, analysts and the betting market.
However, despite wins at the Daytona 500 and fall race at Talladega in 2020, Hamlin did not produce the Cup Series’ best driver rating at the four superspeedways last season.
That honor belonged to Logano, who is a very accomplished superspeedway racer in his own right.
Logano has three career wins at Talladega and took the checkered flag in the 2015 Daytona 500.
And while Joey hasn’t won at a superspeedway since Talladega in the spring of 2018, he’s been arguably the best driver in this style of racing according to underlying metrics.
As mentioned above, Logano, not Hamlin, produced the top driver rating across the four superspeedway races last season.
In fact, if we back out to the past eight NASCAR Cup Series races at Daytona and Talladega, the driver of Team Penske’s No. 22 Ford has led the most laps while posting the top average running position and driver rating.
With Hamlin already locked in, I’m making sure to grab Logano at +1200 (DraftKings) for a formidable 1-2 Daytona 500 betting punch.
Tyler Reddick (+6000) To Win the Daytona 500
With “The Tyler Reddick Whisperer” listed in my Twitter bio, how could I possibly let NASCAR’s most prestigious race pass by without a little action on the Richard Childress Racing driver?
Reddick is an extremely aggressive driver, which makes him a high-risk/high-reward betting option, but remember, we’re betting him to win. So terms like “solid finishes” and “good runs” don’t matter.
The pilot of the No. 8 Chevy has wins at Daytona in both the Truck and XFINITY Series, and was leading when the Cup Series visited the track last August when an desperate block attempt carried him into the wall while triggering a wreck behind him and ending his night:
Unfortunately, he won’t be able to get it back. pic.twitter.com/YJrrzS65Of
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) August 30, 2020
Not exactly ideal for Reddick or the cars that got caught up in the accident, but that’s exactly the type of aggression I want to see from a 60-1 longshot sniffing the lead at the end of the race.
Reddick has had plenty of success at Daytona throughout his NASCAR career and has proven he’ll push his car to the limit (and even past the limit) when victory is within his grasp.
This Daytona 500 longshot is widely available at 50-1, which is still good if that’s all you can find, but shop the market and snag Reddick 60-1 at William Hill, if you can.
Updated Daytona 500 Betting Card:
- Denny Hamlin: +800
- Joey Logano: +1200
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: +2000
- Chris Buescher: +4000
- Tyler Reddick: +6000