Daytona 500 Longshot Betting Picks: The 2 Sleepers Offering Value in Top-10 Finish Props
Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images. Pictured: Michael McDowell, driver of the #34 Love’s Travel Stops Ford
- Pack racing, like what we say at superspeedway races like the Daytona 500, often leads to surprise finishes from longshot drivers.
- While it may be tempting to take those longshot odds on your favorite Daytona 500 sleeper, opting for prop bets instead may be the smarter play.
- Learn about two of Sunday's Daytona 500 longshots that savvy bettors should consider in NASCAR props.
Everybody loves a longshot, and while NASCAR’s superspeedway races, like the Daytona 500, are the most random events on the Cup Series schedule, drivers further down the odds board rarely cash those big outright tickets.
However, due to pack racing that levels the playing field and attrition from big wrecks, longer shots often score better-than-expected finishes simply by avoiding accidents and bringing the car home in one piece.
As a result, the Daytona 500 provides a great opportunity for bettors to find value through props, like top-five and top-10 finish wagers.
With this is mind, here are two drivers with long odds to win the Daytona 500 that I’m betting to score top 10s this afternoon.
Daytona 500 Betting Picks
Michael McDowell (+325) for a Top-10 Finish
When doing researching for my Daytona 500 NASCAR Fantasy Live picks, I came across this little nugget:
“Since 2016, here are McDowell’s finishes on Daytona’s oval: 15th, 10th, 15th, fourth, ninth, 26th, fifth, 13th, 14th and 14th.
That’s seven top-15 finishes in eight races, including four top 10s and two top fives.”
I knew that McDowell overperforms at Daytona, but that run is more consistent, and frankly more impressive, than I expected.
His +325 odds imply a 23.53% probability of a top-10 run, and based on his history at this style of racing, I believe his true chances are better.
Daniel Suarez (+410) for a Top-10 Finish
Suarez has impressed me so far during Speedweeks, and yes, I’m as surprised to type that as you are to read it.
Trackhouse Racing Team is new to NASCAR this season, but appears to have gotten its ducks in a row for the Daytona 500.
Suarez laid down the 10th-fastest lap in qualifying and backed it up with an 8th-place finish in the first Duel race that included a couple of laps led.
Sure, plenty can go wrong in a race as random as the Daytona 500, and even moreso for a brand new team that will hit the track for its first regular-season race, but that is also built into the +410 price for a top 10.
In fact, I think that number is a bit generous and worth taking a shot that Suarez’s speed translates to a top-10 finish.