NASCAR at Michigan Odds, Picks: Betting Groups for the Consumers Energy 400

NASCAR at Michigan Odds, Picks: Betting Groups for the Consumers Energy 400 article feature image
Credit:

Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: NASCAR Cup Series Driver Ryan Newman

  • The 2019 Consumers Energy 400 starts Sunday at 3 p.m. ET (NBCSN) at Michigan International Speedway.
  • Nick Giffen details his favorite props for the race, including which group bets to target.

Head-to-head matchups are a great way to bet on NASCAR to maximize your chances of having a winning week. Only betting outrights to win can lead to a several race drought, so padding your betting card with props that are easier to hit can give you that winning feeling more frequently.

However, head-to-head matchups aren’t the only props available. This weekend I’ve found some nice group bets, where one driver has to finish ahead of only three other drivers in his group.

These come with marginally longer odds, but are frequent enough winners that they make a nice supplement to a race weekend betting card if the price is right.

Alex Bowman (+230) and Daniel Suarez (+300) to Win Group D

  • Alex Bowman +230
  • Jimmie Johnson +230
  • William Byron +295
  • Daniel Suarez +300

Bowman is the favorite per my model, with several factors in his favor. He and Byron both start on the second row, while Suarez and Johnson start on rows six and seven, respectively.

Bowman was also dominant in practice, consistently running 0.15 seconds per lap faster than Suarez over five, 10 and 15 consecutive laps in Happy Hour. Johnson and Byron were even slower.

In Saturday’s first practice — which can be discounted because weather conditions were less similar to Sunday’s race — Suarez was slightly faster, but Bowman closed the gap from 0.1 to 0.01 seconds as the number of laps increased from five to 15.

My model gives Bowman the best average finish of the group, although Suarez is in striking distance. If you want to bet both Bowman and Suarez from this group, that is still a +EV move.

Suarez actually won this group in the first Michigan race with a fourth-place finish, and he seems to be the only driver who can sniff Bowman’s car this weekend. My model rates Suarez as the second-most likely to win this group, despite being priced last.

By adjusting your bet sizes, you can essentially turn this into a +130 bet for either Bowman or Suarez winning the group.

Ryan Newman (+270) to Win Group E

  • Austin Dillon +190
  • Paul Menard +270
  • Ryan Newman +270
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +345

The Richard Childress Racing cars of Austin Dillon and Daniel Hemric had their qualifying times disallowed thanks to using unapproved alternators, meaning they will start at the rear of the field.

The odds do not seem to have adjusted for this development in regards to Dillon. Nevertheless, his practice times do not support his favorite status in the group either.

Yes, he posted the fourth-fastest single lap in Happy Hour, but long run speed matters, and he dropped considerably over five consecutive laps. In fact, Dillon didn’t even make a 10-lap run. That’s concerning

Newman, on the other hand, maintained consistency across the run with a five-lap average nearly two-tenths of a second faster than Dillon and four-tenths faster than Menard and Stenhouse. Newman was also the only car in the group to run 10 consecutive laps, and posted the fastest overall average time in final practice as well.

It’s hard to gauge Dillon’s situation, but my model clearly gives Newman the best average finish among the remaining three drivers, and Dillon has some concerns heading into the weekend. That makes this +270 price is very appealing. I like this bet down to +230.

Ty Dillon (+215) to Win Group F

  • Ty Dillon +215
  • Ryan Preece +250
  • David Ragan +285
  • Michael McDowell +305

The younger Dillon brother clearly has the best car in the group. I believe he essentially needs to avoid problems to take this group prop. Dillon’s five- and 10-lap time in final practice were tops of the bunch, with only David Ragan approaching Dillon’s times.

McDowell was three-tenths off over five consecutive laps, and Preece didn’t even make a five-lap run. That’s incredibly concerning considering he ran 29 laps in final practice. He routinely came in for adjustments for a poor handling car.

Dillon also won this group in the first Michigan race just two months ago, finishing on the lead lap in 22nd. Preece was the only other driver in this group joining Dillon on the lead lap, coming home 25th.

Additional Prop Bets

  • Daniel Suarez (-110) over William Byron
  • Alex Bowman (-130) over William Byron
  • Kevin Harvick (-140) over Kyle Busch

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