3 NBA Props for Monday: Capela Over/Under 11.5 Points?

This article offers data-driven analysis on notable NBA player prop bets, often incorporating The Action Network’s public betting data along with the tools at FantasyLabs and Sports Insights.

It all comes down to this. Monday’s analysis will cover the following three props for Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals featuring the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors at 9 p.m. ET:

• Clint Capela (Rockets) over/under 11.5 points
• Steph Curry (Warriors) over/under 26.5 points
• Draymond Green (Warriors) over/under 11.5 points

Looking for more props? Check out the FantasyLabs NBA Player Props tool.

Clint Capela Under 11.5 Points (-115 at Bovada)

9 p.m. ET | TNT

This prop has come through for me all series, and I’m going back to the well again in Game 7. The Warriors have remained committed to staying glued to Capela on the pick-and-roll, and as a result, he’s posted an average usage rate of just 13.9%. That’s a significant decrease from his regular-season average of 19.4%, and it’s a big reason why he’s averaged just 8.7 points per game this series.

Stephen Curry Over 26.5 Points (-103 at BetOnline)

9 p.m. ET | TNT

Curry started out slowly in this series but has picked up his play over the past four games, exceeding 26.5 points in three of those games and averaging 28.5 points per game over that span. Curry has room for growth in those numbers given his shooting percentage from 3-point range; he’s been well below his mark in both “open” and “wide open” 3-point percentage during this series, which could be due for regression moving forward.

Draymond Green Under 11.5 Points (-115 at Bovada)

9 p.m. ET | TNT

Green has been a major factor in this series, but his contributions in the scoring department have been limited. He’s posted a usage rate of just 13.3% in the series, resulting in an average of just 8.0 points per game, and he’s eclipsed the 11.5-point threshold just once in this series.

All lines accurate as of 6:30 p.m. ET on Monday, May 28.