Bucks vs. Pistons Game 4 Betting Preview: Will Milwaukee Cover 4 Straight?

Bucks vs. Pistons Game 4 Betting Preview: Will Milwaukee Cover 4 Straight? article feature image

Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Giannis Antetokounmpo (34).

Game 4 Betting Odds: Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons

  • Spread: Bucks -12
  • Over/Under: 218
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: TNT
  • Series Score: Bucks Lead 3-0

>> All odds as of Sunday night. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and live win probabilities on your bets.

The Pistons are ready for a summer break after getting blown out by the Bucks in the first three games. Can they make Game 4 competitive or will it be the same old story? Our analysts discuss.

Betting Trends to Know

After opening up a 3-0 series lead, the Bucks are now 13-point favorites on the road in Game 4 of the playoffs. The main reason for the lofty spread is the fact that Milwaukee is outscoring the Pistons by 24 points per game in this series.

Since 2005, only four teams have been favored by double digits on the road in Game 4 of a playoff series. All four teams won straight-up by at least 10 points, and they covered by an average of 5.1 PPG. – Evan Abrams

As 13-point road favorites in the playoffs Monday night, the Bucks are the 2nd-largest road favorite in the NBA playoffs since at least 2005. The largest road favorite prior to Milwaukee tonight was back in 2016, when the Spurs were 13.5-point favorites against the Grizzlies. – Abrams

When the Pistons take the court Monday night, they are going to be very disappointed to find out that they still have to play the Bucks. This season, the Bucks are 7-0 straight up and 6-0-1 ATS against the Pistons. In all seven games, the Bucks have had the field goal percentage advantage over the Pistons, and in only one game has Detroit come within even 10 points. – Abrams

Bucks are the largest road favorite since the Spurs -13.5 at Grizzlies (2016). Double-digit favorites in the postseason have gone 62-49-3 (56%) ATS since 2005. Road favorites of 10 or more points are 5-0 SU and 3-1-1 ATS in that time. – John Ewing

Moore: How I’m Betting Game 4

The Bucks’ over/under point total is 115.5. They have scored 119 or more in all three games in this series, and that’s despite Giannis Antetokounmpo being held to 26 points or less in each of the meetings and turning the ball over on 20% of his isolation possessions — more than double his regular-season average.

The Bucks are 13th among playoff teams in points off turnovers per 100 possessions, 13th in second-chance points, and yet they’re No. 1 in offensive efficiency and No. 2 in effective field goal percentage.

The Pistons have held the MVP to ‘only’ 21 points per game on 52% shooting from the field, and they’ve still gotten waxed. Milwaukee has scored 30 or more in seven of 12 quarters.

The Bucks are hydra. Cut off one head, and Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton will drop 20 on you. Bang the over. – Matt Moore

Mears: Don’t Expect Apathy from the Bucks

These teams just aren’t close at all, as shown in the previous three games. During the regular season, the Bucks won all four meetings, averaging a ridiculous +17.9 Net Rating in the process. Those included Blake Griffin, so that’s not really an excuse. And in the playoffs, the Bucks are 3-0 with a +25.4 Net Rating in non-garbage time. Sheesh.

This line of Bucks -12 suggests they’re 15 points better on a neutral court — about 18 points better at home. That’s … aggressive, but how can you argue the line isn’t fair given the numbers above? The Bucks have covered all three games even with high spreads this series, and as Evan mentioned above they went 3-0-1 ATS against Detroit in the regular season.

I think this line is fair and will be personally staying away. You’d have to be a very brave bettor to put money on Detroit in this one, even with a playoff spread of +12 at home.

The biggest reason, honestly, is that the Bucks aren’t the Warriors. They haven’t been here before and know they’re OK putting in less than 100 percent effort in a playoff game. If this was the Warriors up 3-0 against a completely overmatched team, I would be worried about apathy.

But this is a young, up-and-coming team trying to prove itself on the highest stage. Giannis Antetokounmpo, the likely NBA MVP, is just 24-years-old; he doesn’t have past success under his belt to satisfy him. I’m expecting the Bucks to put their foot down in a convincing way, and this line — Bucks by 15 on a neutral court — is very fair given that factor. — Bryan Mears

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.