Betting Odds: Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers
- Spread: Nuggets -5.5
- Over/Under: 230.5
- Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: ESPN
>> All odds as of 3:30 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds and track your bets
After three-consecutive losses and no schedule relief in sight, the Lakers are back in the Staples Center facing the second-best team in the Western Conference, the Denver Nuggets.
The Lakers' odds to make the playoffs are off the board at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and they have a 2% chance to make the postseason, according to FiveThirtyEight with three teams ahead of them in the standings.
Is there any hope left for the Lake Show vs. a Nuggets team that looks like a true contender? Our analysts discuss.
Betting Trends to Know
The Lakers' defense this season has been an absolute roller coaster, but since Lonzo Ball went down with an injury on Jan. 21, they have fallen off a cliff. The Lakers defensive efficiency was 104.7 before Lonzo’s injury, seventh in the NBA. Since, the Lakers defensive efficiency is 114.6, 29th and second-worst in the NBA. — Evan Abrams
The Lakers are coming off a disappointing Staples Center Showdown loss to the Clippers on Monday. Dating back to 2005, the Lakers are 29-24-1 ATS in gamea after facing the Clippers, their third-most profitable previous opponent over that span, making bettors 3.9 units. The Lakers have covered the spread in seven consecutive games coming off a meeting against the Clippers. — Abrams
The Lakers are the second-least profitable team in the NBA this season with a 26-37-1 ATS record. LA has struggled against bad teams going 9-22-1 ATS when facing an opponent with a losing record, but LeBron & Co. are a profitable 16-10 ATS when playing a team with a winning record like the Nuggets. — John Ewing
Mears: Is the Value on Tonight's Total?
Here’s the on/off differential numbers for the Lakers’ main players this season:
- Reggie Bullock: +9.9
- LeBron James: +7.8
- Tyson Chandler: +5.2
- Josh Hart: +2.6
- Kyle Kuzma: +2.2
- Lonzo Ball: +1.6
- Brandon Ingram: -0.5
- JaVale McGee: -3.4
- Lance Stephenson: -4.5
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: -4.9
- Rajon Rondo: -6.6
There’s been a ton of analysis about the Lakers over the past couple weeks, but honestly this isn’t rocket science — although the Lakers front office seems to believe it is.
LeBron surrounded by shooters is about as lethal as it gets offensively. Those shooters can be great ones like Kevin Love and Kyle Korver, or they can be average ones. It doesn’t matter; surround LBJ with guys who have to be guarded at the 3-point line, and your team is going to be good.
Look again at that list. Notice anything? Shooters at the top; non-shooters at the bottom.
I’m not sure who is to blame for the Lakers' seemingly lost season, but I’d likely assign most of it to whoever thought it was a good idea to use huge free agency capital on Stephenson, Rondo and the rest of the non-shooters on this team who get solid minutes. Again, this is knowledge about LeBron’s game that even casual fans have known for over a decade.
Anyway, what does all this mean for tonight? Well, the Lakers will still be playing without good shooters, and probably the best one they have — Kuzma — is out for a week with a sprained ankle. Without him on the floor, the offense has dipped by a whopping 4.0 points per 100 possessions. Combine that with an already trash defense of late, and it’s hard to envision the ship getting turned around tonight against a good Denver team.
The problem, of course, is that the public is all in on fading the Lakers, so the line is inflated. It opened at Nuggets -4.5 on the road and has since moved up to -5.5 thanks to nearly 70% of bets hitting Denver. That’s a bit scary considering the Nuggets are just 12-18 ATS on the road this year.
There’s probably a bit of value still on the Nuggets given how the Lakers have played plus Kuzma’s injury, but honestly the better play might be the total. Denver’s defense is outstanding, and the Lakers are 22-10 to the under at home this year. Or just avoid this game and not have to worry about sweating this disappointing team.
