Nuggets-76ers Betting Preview: Follow the Public on Revamped Philly?

Nuggets-76ers Betting Preview: Follow the Public on Revamped Philly? article feature image

Photo credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons

Betting Odds: Denver Nuggets at Philadelphia 76ers

  • Spread: 76ers -4.5
  • Over/Under: 229
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN

>> All odds as of 1 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds and track your bets

The revamped Philadelphia 76ers, who acquired Tobias Harris in a blockbuster trade this week, will take the court together for the first time against the injured Denver Nuggets.

The public is all over the new-look 76ers. Should you follow or fade? Our analysts discuss.

Betting Trends to Know

The 76ers made a few rotation-changing deals at the deadline to add to their scoring attack, including Tobias Harris. Philly has lost two consecutive games entering this showdown against the West’s second-best team (record-wise) in the Nuggets.

Over the last five years, the Sixers are an astounding 26-8 (76.5%) against-the-spread at home against above-.500 Western Conference teams, including 16-4 ATS (80%) over the last three seasons in this spot. — Evan Abrams

This is the Nuggets’ fourth consecutive road game. One would think all that travel would have an adverse effect on a team. But since 2005, teams that are playing at least their fourth game in a row away from home have gone 619-547-26 (52.3%) ATS. Mike Malone’s teams have gone 19-12-2 ATS in that time. — John Ewing

Mears: Why I’m Betting the 76ers

Here’s the on/off court differentials for the Nuggets’ main players, starting with the highest (best):

  • Paul Millsap: +7.7
  • Gary Harris: +7.2
  • Nikola Jokic: +6.4
  • Monte Morris: +1.2
  • Malik Beasley: -0.1
  • Mason Plumlee: -0.6
  • Will Barton: -1.6
  • Jamal Murray: -2.2
  • Torrey Craig: -3.4
  • Juancho Hernangomez: -3.9

And the problem: The two guys at the top of that list may not play tonight. Harris has already been ruled out with a strained right adductor, while Millsap is questionable after missing the last two games with an ankle injury. The Nuggets have lost those last two games without Harris and Millsap, and not exactly to elite teams in the Nets and Pistons.

Thus, this line is odd: If you factor in home-court being worth around 2.5 to 3 points, that means the 76ers are currently just a point or two better than this version of the Nuggets. That seems off to me.

Further, it’s hard to argue that the 76ers have improved their team after trading for Tobias Harris, who has had an excellent season in L.A. With the Clippers, he shot 40.8% on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers and posted a stellar 59.4% effective field goal rate on all catch-and-shoot shots. He should get quite a few of those surrounded by Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid and Jimmy Butler.

The public is all over the 76ers in this one: Philly is getting 71% of the bets and 96% of the money. That might scare me usually, but I just fundamentally disagree with this line and will be with the public on 76ers -4.5. — Bryan Mears

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.