FIBA World Cup Odds, Best Bets Today: Expert Picks for Germany vs. Australia, More (August 27)
Takashi Aoyama/Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Ingles #7 of Australia.
We're onto Day 3 of the FIBA World Cup and Sunday's slate brings us eight more must-see matchups. Our Action Network analysts — Brandon Anderson, Joe Dellera and Bryan Fonseca — are betting multiple Sunday morning games.
Read on for their FIBA World Cup best bets below.
Bryan Fonseca: One thing Italy will try to exploit against the Dominican Republic is shooting against drop coverage.
And, to me, Nicolo Melli’s point-prop is friendly in this spot as he should be able to cash in on pick-and-pop opportunities, which will primarily come against Karl-Anthony Towns and Angel Delgado. If Italy opts to mismatch hunt, Melli could also get matched up against the smaller Victor Liz and/or Andres Feliz.
The flow of the game should provide Melli opportunities to score and shoot over the top of the Dominican Republic defense. If he makes enough shots, an 11-point game should be light work.
Pick: Nicolo Melli Over 10.5 Points (-115)
Fonseca: I think Australia will fall under the radar in the early stages of this tournament, but they’re kind of a sleeping giant. They’re one of the only teams with a real chance of winning this World Cup, and I think they’ll beat Germany on Sunday.
Australia have one of the deepest rosters in this tournament and has more talent than this spread indicates. Australia's chemistry is generally good and the flow of their offense was consistent in Game 1. Until they see France, Canada or Spain, Australia should be favored by more than this against anybody.
Patty Mills vs. Dennis Schroder will be a fun head-to-head scoring battle between small guards, but even if Mills gets beat, Australia still has Josh Giddey, Joe Ingles, Matisse Thybulle, Dante Exum, Josh Green and Xavier Cooks.
Pick: Australia -2.5 (up to -3.5)
Brandon Anderson: The Philippines are one of the hosts of this FIBA World Cup, and I’m banking on the hosts not going down without a fight.
The arena was absolutely electric for the opener. For the uninitiated, the Philippines is one of the most basketball-crazed nations in the world. These fans are absolutely ravenous for basketball, and a team led by Jordan Clarkson is a ton of fun and very competitive. They set an arena record for attendance in the opener and nearly upset Karl-Anthony Towns and the Dominican Republic.
Angola also lost its opener, so this is effectively an elimination game for both. Angola is a tough, physical team with Bruno Fernando as one of its key players.
This won't be an easy game, but I’m banking on the home fans lifting the team and helping Philippines pull away late to win by double digits.
Pick: Philippines -6.5 (up to -7.5)
Joe Dellera: Jordan Clarkson has been a solid primary option as both a scorer and distributor for the Philippines.
He racked up 14 Rebounds and Assists (seven of each) before fouling out in their first game against the Dominican Republic. In the three international games he's played, he’s averaged 6.0 rebounds and 6.6 assists per game.
I prefer the combo stat here as he should continue to play max minutes in front of his hometown crowd and is likely to put up a star performance with all-around contributions.
If this market isn't available to you, I don’t mind over 5.5 assists (-130 FanDuel) for or over 3.5 turnovers (-115).
Pick: Jordan Clarkson over 11.5 REB + AST (-130 Bet365)
Anderson: You’re probably familiar with Davis Bertans, the journeyman sharpshooter stretch four who bounced around the NBA for the better part of a decade. He’s on the Thunder now after a draft night trade, in case you forgot.
However, you might not be as familiar with his brother, Dairis Bertans, unless you follow international basketball. Dairis briefly played in the NBA, getting a cup of coffee with the Pelicans in 2019, but he’s been a mainstay on this Latvian team. He’s not as tall as Davis, but he’s just as much of a sharpshooter (46% career on 3s in the Euroleague).
It might surprise you to note that Dairis, not Davis, started for Latvia in the opener, and he was impressive. He lit up Lebanon for 20 points and took all but one of his shots from behind the arc. He went 6-of-7 from 3 and only played 15 minutes, thanks to the blowout.
France got demolished in its opener, and France have a tendency of being all or nothing in tournaments. If the French no show again, Latvia is absolutely good enough to run hot from deep and knock them out. But if France does right the ship and leads big, then Latvia will have to chuck it from deep to come back, so I like this play either way, especially at plus money.
France’s defense is built around Rudy Gobert and not well equipped to defend the arc. So, this is a dangerous spot against a Latvia team that can knock down shots in a hurry.