Warriors-Spurs Betting Guide: Will Golden State Turn Things Around?

Warriors-Spurs Betting Guide: Will Golden State Turn Things Around? article feature image
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Photo credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kevin Durant

Betting odds: Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs

  • Spread: Spurs -3
  • Over/Under: 213.5
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: NBA TV

>> All odds as of 1 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds and track your bets


The defending champion Warriors have lost two straight, including a close one on the road in Dallas on Saturday night. Can they right the ship in San Antonio, or will they continue to have profound struggles without Stephen Curry? Our analysts dive in and discuss.



Betting Trends to Know

The Spurs usually figure out how to right the ship.

They have a negative season point differential of -0.86 entering this game. Since 2003, Gregg Popovich is 20-12 against the spread when the Spurs have a negative season point differential, profiting bettors 7.4 units. The Spurs did not play a game in this spot between the 2009-10 and 2013-14 seasons, but are 11-6 ATS since then, covering 11 of their past 14 games.

Did you know? The Warriors have played five games against Popovich and the Spurs on a back-to-back. Golden State is 2-3 straight-up and ATS in those, with all five games coming on the road in San Antonio.Evan Abrams


Moore: Why This Game Is a Stay-Away

Hoo boy, two legendary franchises that are not in a great place.

Let’s start here: Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson without Curry (groin) and Draymond Green (toe injury, pissed off Durant) this season have a +3.4 Net Rating per 100 possessions in limited minutes. They have still cooked offensively at a 113.0 mark, but their defense gets a little worse.

Of course, most of that is in games vs. bench units or ones in which the Warriors starters have warped the fabric of the time-space continuum. Still, it’s a sign of how good the Warriors are, that without two of their key players they can still perform at this level … with only two All-Star top-15 players in the NBA.

Meanwhile, the Spurs are decidedly un-Spurs-like so far. In addition to the numbers Evan highlighted above about their Net Rating and how rare that is, they have three losses to teams under .500 in their first 14 games. That’s exceptionally rare. The Spurs had seven all of last season and have just 15 such losses since the start of the 2015-16 season. That’s an 86% winning percentage across 107 such games played before this season.

What does this have to do with the obviously-about-.500 Warriors? It’s a sign that the basic core elements of the Spurs that have carried them for so long are broken.

The Spurs are profoundly mediocre so far; they're not only 7-7, but 14th in offense and 17th in defense. They don’t have an identity. They’re just a bunch of dudes right now. However, at least they have dudes, unlike the Warriors who didn't upgrade their rotation outside of DeMarcus Cousins this summer, and he’s not available yet.

The Dubs will need big games from Alfonzo McKinnie, Quinn Cook and Kevon Looney. The Spurs need big games from Bryn Forbes and Rudy Gay. The Warriors have the best two players on the floor; the Spurs probably have four of the next five, with Andre Iguodala as the exception.

Spurs
Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Without any sense of what this Warriors team looks like, and given how wildly different the Spurs look like in nights when they have it vs. when they don’t, this is a stay-away for me.Matt Moore


Mears: Is the Betting Market Catching On?

I hope you read this piece from last week about why I thought Curry was undervalued in the betting market. The data was pretty overwhelming: Since Durant came to town in 2016, the Warriors were 13-22 (37.1%) ATS in games without Steph.

Since then the Dubs have gone 0-3 ATS, including two straight-up losses to the Rockets and Mavericks.

So the question is whether the market has adjusted to this trend for Sunday night's game. Based on our NBA power ratings, this line should be about Warriors -6 if everyone was healthy. That means the betting market is suggesting the combination of Curry being out, Green being unlikely and the team playing on a road back-to-back is worth about nine points to the spread.

That's more than oddsmakers said those guys were worth before the season, but it's more in line with what I believe they should be worth (or close to it). As such, I'm afraid the value is gone from this one.

I've been hammering Warriors' opponents ATS, along with the unders, but this one is a stay-away for me.Bryan Mears


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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