Grizzlies vs. Mavericks Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction: Bet the Total in Saturday’s Marquee Matchup (October 21)
Tom Pennington/Getty Images. Pictured: Luka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks.
- The Mavericks host the Grizzlies in an enticing Western Conference matchup.
- All eyes will be on Ja Morant and Luka Doncic, but our analyst is targeting the under.
- Andrew O'Connor Watts explains why below.
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks Odds
|Time||8:30 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.|
Morant and the Grizzlies are coming off of a 115-112 overtime win against the New York Knicks. The Grizzlies squandered a 15-point halftime lead and may have lost had it not been for Julius Randle's ejection at the beginning of overtime.
The Mavericks are looking to shake off a blown lead of their own, which came courtesy of the Phoenix Suns, who stormed back from a 17-point halftime deficit to defeat the Mavericks, 107-105, on Wednesday.
Look to back the under in a game of runs and consider betting either team live if you can get a double-digit line.
Despite a so-so ATS record of late (5-5 in their past 10 games), the Grizzlies’ were 52-29-1 ATS (64.2%) last season, the best in the league.
There are several relevant ATS trends from last season that I expect to carry over to 2022-23.
According to TeamRankings.com, last year's Grizzlies were 37-24-1 ATS (60.7%) when coming off a win with a differential of +2.5.
On the road, Memphis was 28-18-2 ATS (60.9%), 22-13-1 ATS (62.9%) as an underdog, but only 12-10-1 ATS (54.6%) as a road-underdog with a differential of -1.1.
While I still think the Grizzlies will be a great ATS team this season, there are a few hesitations steering me away from the Grizzlies’ side.
The absence of Jaren Jackson Jr. is a big blow to the Grizzlies’ defense and spacing.
With him out, they’ll play more Steven Adams, who is an excellent offensive rebounder and a solid defender, but offers nothing to help the spacing.
Looking at the total, the Grizzlies were a slight over team last season, going 47-43-4 to the over.
But that alone is not enough for me to look to an over wager.
It took the Knicks and Grizzlies an extra five minutes of overtime to go over the total of 226.5 on Tuesday. It’s under or nothing from the Grizzlies perspective.
The Grizzlies were the best 2021-22 ATS team, but Dallas was third at 47-33-2 (58.8%).
And while the Mavericks blew a 17-point halftime lead to the Suns on Tuesday, Dallas is a team that responds well to adversity. Last season the Mavericks were 27-11 (71.1%) ATS after a SU loss with a differential of +5.9.
The Mavericks were also a great home team last season. According to TeamRankings.com, the Mavericks were 29-18-2 ATS (61.7%) at home, as a favorite they went 33-19-2 ATS (63.5%), and as a home favorite they were 20-12-2 ATS (62.5%).
So, what do we do with two teams that have excellent ATS records?
We look to the head-to-head matchup.
In their past 10 head-to-head meetings, the Mavericks are 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS against the Mavericks.
The Mavericks have won and covered the past three times these teams have faced each other.
While I really like Dallas in their home opener, I like the total even more.
If you blindly bet the under in every Mavericks game last season, you’d be a unit-stacking machine.
Dallas was the most successful under team last season, cashing at 60.2%.
On top of that, the under has hit in the past four meetings between the Mavericks and Grizzlies and I don’t see that trend going away.
I think the Mavericks will look to control the pace and set their offense in the halfcourt, limiting Memphis’ transition offense.
My lean is to the Mavericks -5 tonight but that line is about right and I’ll stay away from the side unless it gets to -3.5 or better. With the way these two teams can go on runs, I’d look to live bet either team if you can get a double-digit line in-game. Under 220.5 is my favorite play in this one.
Pick: Under 220.5 (-110)