Hornets vs. Clippers Odds, Pick, Prediction: Trends Point to Value on Total

Hornets vs. Clippers Odds, Pick, Prediction: Trends Point to Value on Total article feature image

Kent Smith/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Kawhi Leonard #2 of the LA Clippers, Jalen McDaniels #6 of the Charlotte Hornets.

  • The Charlotte Hornets are in Los Angeles to face the Clippers on Wednesday as they look to win two in a row in California.
  • The Clippers are near double-digit favorites, but Corey Parson sees value in the total at 226 points.
  • He breaks down the matchup and gives his betting pick below.

Hornets vs. Clippers Odds

Hornets Odds+8.5
Clippers Odds-8.5
Over/Under225.5 (-110/-110)
Time10:30 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Los Angeles Clippers and Charlotte Hornets meet for the second time this season tonight at Crypto.com Arena. When the two teams met a few weeks ago in Charlotte, the Clippers won by two points on a go-ahead bucket by Kawhi Leonard.

Tonight, the Clippers enter the game as 7.5-point favorites at home. Should bettors be looking for the Clippers to cover, or is there value elsewhere in the game.

Let's take a look at the Hornets vs. Clippers odds and see how both side matchup on Wednesday night.

Hornets Have a Significant Talent Gap

The Hornets are currently tied with the Detroit Pistons for the worst record in the NBA. Before their win in Sacramento on Monday, the Hornets had lost nine-straight games. Charlotte also suffered a separate eight-game losing streak earlier this season. They've won back to back games just once all season.

Things won't be getting easier anytime soon. Tonight the Hornets play their third game of a six-game road trip. Before they head back East, they have games vs. the Clippers, L.A. Lakers, Portland Trail Blazers and Golden State Warriors. On the road this season, the Hornets are just 4-12 straight up, but 9-6-1 against the spread. That lets us know that oddsmakers undervalue the Hornets on the road.

The Hornets' main issue comes on the defensive side of the ball. Charlotte allows 114.8 points per 100 possessions, the fourth-worst mark in the NBA. Only the Detroit Pistons (118.2) and San Antonio Spurs (119.5) allow more points per game than the Hornets' 117.5 per game. What's even more concerning, over their past 10 games the Hornets have a 119.9 Defensive Rating (worst) and a 50% Effective Field Goal Percentage (third-worst).

The Hornets have struggled with injuries all season. Their best player, LaMelo Ball, has only played in seven games this season, Gordon Hayward has only played in 14 and Terry Rozier (doubtful) will likely miss tonight's game.

Clippers Locking Up, Dominating Lesser Competition

The Clippers have won four of their past five games. Both Leonard and Paul George have been playing lately, but George is questionable tonight. When the Clippers have a fully healthy roster, they project to be one of the better teams in the Western Conference. At least that's what we think.

Lately, the Clippers been taking advantage of some of the weaker teams in the league. In their last four wins they have beat the Wizards twice and the Timberwolves. They also scored an impressive 20-point victory over the Celtics.

We will get a real good look at the Clippers over the next week or so when they go on a five-game road trip that will take them to Philadelphia, Boston, Detroit, Toronto and Indiana.

The Clippers' best asset is their dominance defensively. They are holding opponents to 108.9 points per 100 possessions, third-lowest mark in the league behind the Cleveland Cavaliers and Milwaukee Bucks. Clippers opponents are only shooting 45.2% from the field and 33.8% from 3-point territory, both top-five in the league.

Offensively, the Clippers aren't there yet. They have the second-worst Offensive Rating this season (108.1) behind, of course, the Hornets. And remember what I noted about the Hornets' EFG% over the past 10 games? The Clippers have been worse shooting 49.4% over the same stretch.

Hornets-Clippers Pick

On the season, 65% of Clippers games have gone under the total. The Clippers are 15-2 to the under on their home court this season. The Clippers have a defense bettors can trust and an offense that appears to be a work in progress.

I would not describe myself as a trends bettor but some trends have to be taken seriously. The under has cashed in seven-straight Clippers home games.

I'm betting that streak extends to eight.

Pick: Under 226

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Sean Treppedi
Jul 17, 2024 UTC