The Houston Rockets (48-29) and Golden State Warriors (36-41) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 10:00 p.m. ET from the Chase Center in San Francisco, California. The game will broadcast live on NBC and Peacock.
The Rockets are 3.5-point favorites over the Warriors on the spread (Rockets -3.5), with the over/under set at 225.5 total points. Houston is a -156 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Golden State is +132 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into our Rockets vs. Warriors predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, April 5.
Rockets vs Warriors Prediction, Pick
- Rockets vs Warriors pick: Gui Santos Over 11.5 Points (-130)
Our Warriors vs. Rockets best bet is on Gui Santos to score 12+ points. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Rockets vs Warriors Odds
| Rockets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -112 | 225.5 -110o / -110u | -156 |
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -108 | 225.5 -110o / -110u | +132 |
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Rockets vs Warriors NBA Preview
The headline in the Bay Area is the potential return of Stephen Curry, but we aren’t letting that distract us from the massive value on Gui Santos.
While Curry’s upgrade to questionable might scare some away from Warriors’ secondary scoring props, the market still hasn't fully adjusted to the leap Santos has made during Steph's 27-game absence.
Santos has transformed from a bench spark to a primary engine in Steve Kerr’s rotation. He’s averaging 21.6 points over his last five games and has cleared the 25-point mark in three of his last four — including a career-high 31 against Brooklyn.
Even if Curry suits up, he’ll likely be on a strict minutes restriction. Santos has earned a high-usage role by shooting 40% from deep lately. He isn't just a "fill-in" anymore; he’s a focal point of the offense who creates his own shot.
Rockets vs Warriors Predictions, Betting Analysis
Houston’s defense is a green light for wings. The Rockets currently allow the third-most three-pointers in the league to opposing small forwards.
Santos is averaging 9.2 points per game this season with the Warriors, but his recent stretch tells a very different story. He has cleared this line in four of his last five games with totals of 25, 27, 31 and 16 points in those outings.
Between the Rockets' perimeter lapses and Santos' current heater, this line feels like a floor rather than a ceiling.
With our model projecting him comfortably above the market line and his recent scoring surge, there's solid value in backing Santos to score 12+ points in tonight's matchup against Houston.
Pick: Gui Santos Over 11.5 Points (-130)
